Recently, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi planned to visit Russia, but before the official departure, there was a wave of shouts against China, emphasizing that "it is not permissible to change the status quo in the South China Sea". At this juncture, Putin was not idle, and hurriedly organized a trilateral meeting of China, Russia, and India in an attempt to resolve the dispute between China and Russia through negotiations.
We have to ask: what is the purpose of Modi's operation? Will Putin's plan work out?
Modi's visit to Russia, withstanding Western pressure, showed off the friendship of "iron buddies".
First of all, this is Modi's first official visit to Russia since his re-election as Prime Minister of India, and the future of Russian-Indian relations will be further clarified in this meeting. However, this is not a simple diplomatic visit, after all, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is escalating, and the pressure of Western countries on Russia is increasing.
In this context, Modi's visit is tantamount to a generous gift to Russia and demonstrates the close cooperation between the two countries. In Russia and India, everyone is looking forward to a win-win situation for the visit.
But things are far from simple, and before Modi could set off on his journey, India suddenly issued demands on China. The South China Sea issue and the Sino-Indian border issue have become the focus of India's remarks. One can't help but ask: Why did India suddenly change its tune on China at this time?
India's calculations: arms sales, influence, and that little "careful thinking"
First of all, on the South China Sea issue, India's proposal that "the status quo will not be changed by force" seems to be "impartial and impartial" on the surface, but in fact, its remarks are exactly the same as the position of the United States and the West, and the implication of exerting pressure on China is very obvious.
India has been cautious about the South China Sea, but in recent years, as China-India relations have changed, India has begun to make a lot of nonsense. The United States pursues the "Indo-Pacific Strategy", and India has also responded positively, trying to show its influence and presence.
In addition, there is another reason that has to be mentioned - cooperation in arms sales. After the confrontation broke out at Ren'ai Jiao, India took the initiative to carry out defense cooperation with the Philippines, and at the same time, the "BrahMos" anti-ship missile with a range of 300 kilometers developed by India also began to be delivered to the Philippines in batches.
To put it bluntly, India wants to take advantage of the escalation of the situation in the South China Sea to sell weapons and seek economic benefits from it. Moreover, India may also believe that the South China Sea issue will distract China from other issues and thus gain advantage of the border issue.
Modi did not go to the SCO summit, but participated in the G7 in a high-profile manner, what is India thinking?
Speaking of the upcoming SCO Council of Heads of State, there are a total of 9 member states, and when the heads of state of 8 member states are confirmed to attend, only Modi chooses to be absent and only sends foreign ministers to attend.
It is said to be because of the clash of domestic agendas, but this is only a superficial rhetoric. Modi's high-profile participation in the G7 summit but lack of interest in the SCO summit shows that India's attitude in multilateral diplomacy is selective.
Since Modi came to power, India's attitude towards China has changed dramatically. The pragmatic line of "hello, hello, everyone" in the first few years has now turned into a-for-tat tough stance.
India has not only refused to give up an inch of territory on the border issue, but has also frequently flaunted its sword in the diplomatic, economic, trade, and military fields, obviously trying to contain and balance China. Such an iron-fisted approach undoubtedly increases the risk of friction and confrontation between China and India.
At the same time, the Modi government is also frantically courting the United States, and relations between the two countries have warmed up sharply. In the context of the Sino-US game, India seems to be taking a big gamble in an attempt to enhance its international status by being pro-US. However, this has also made Sino-Indian relations worse, and tensions have intensified.
Putin's "wish": Can the China-Russia-India Iron Triangle come true?
In the face of such a complicated situation, Putin obviously has to take precautions. He hopes to resolve differences by organizing a trilateral meeting between China, Russia and India and create a solid "China-Russia-India Iron Triangle." But will this work out of the way?
The Russian president personally organized a situation in the hope of easing the tension in Sino-Indian relations through dialogue and negotiations, which is of course a good thing and is crucial for maintaining regional stability and countering US hegemony.
But the problem is that India's uncooperative attitude on multiple levels is likely to be the biggest obstacle to this plan.
So, what will the end result be? From the current point of view, there are several possibilities:
1. Successful Trilateral Meeting of China, Russia and India: If Putin's efforts work and the trilateral talks between China, Russia and India go smoothly, then the meeting has the potential to lay the groundwork for future multilateral cooperation. If India makes some compromises on the South China Sea and border issues, there may be signs of easing Sino-Indian relations.
2. India continues to be tough on South China Sea and border issues: If India sticks to its position and is unwilling to compromise, Sino-Indian relations will remain deadlocked, and tensions in the South China Sea are likely to increase. Under such circumstances, Putin's "iron triangle plan" may be difficult to realize.
3. India's Foreign Policy Adjustments: Given the changing international situation, India is likely to adjust its foreign policy in some areas, especially in the face of pressure from Sino-Russian cooperation, and India may choose to show greater flexibility on specific issues.
In summary, Modi's shouting to China and Putin's careful layout will have a final verdict when Modi visits Russia. Let's wait and see who will have the last laugh in this international contest in the end.