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The Chinese high-level is about to leave, Tokayev is fully prepared, and the initiative in Central Asia will be handed over to China

author:Researcher Shuai Zhang

On the occasion of the upcoming visit of the Chinese leader to Kazakhstan, Tokayev listed a series of gratifying statistics on China-Kazakhstan cooperation, and the bilateral trade volume between China and Kazakhstan has increased by 100 times throughout the period of bilateral relations.

The Chinese high-level is about to leave, Tokayev is fully prepared, and the initiative in Central Asia will be handed over to China

(Tokayev listed a series of data on China-Kazakhstan economic and trade cooperation)

A few days ago, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev mentioned in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that China is Kazakhstan's main trade and investment partner, and in the course of bilateral relations between China and Kazakhstan for more than 30 years, the trade volume between the two countries has increased by 100 times.

Generally speaking, when we refer to the changes in the bilateral trade volume between the two countries, we compare the data of the previous year, or the changes in the past few years, and Tokayev directly lists the comparison of the development of bilateral relations over the past 30 years, which is a very rare statement.

Obviously, Tokayev wants to show the outside world that the continuous strengthening of Sino-Kazakh economic and trade cooperation over the past 30 years and more is also an affirmation of Sino-Kazakh trade relations. Especially in 2023, China-Kazakhstan economic and trade cooperation has also reached a historic record.

Tokayev mentioned that in 2023, the bilateral trade volume between China and Kazakhstan will reach 41 billion US dollars, which is a historical record. Not only that, China has also become one of the top four overseas investors in Kazakhstan, with a direct investment of about $2 billion in Kazakhstan, an increase of 16.4% compared to 2022.

The Chinese high-level is about to leave, Tokayev is fully prepared, and the initiative in Central Asia will be handed over to China

(China-Kazakhstan economic and trade relations are in the best period in history)

Prior to this, most of Kazakhstan's overseas investors were Western countries, led by the Netherlands, followed by the United States, Switzerland, Russia, etc. But now the situation has changed, and China has become one of the top four overseas investors in Kazakhstan.

Overall, Tokayev said that in general, the cumulative amount of Chinese investment in Kazakhstan exceeded $25 billion. It is not difficult to see that Tokayev is quite satisfied with the current development of Sino-Kazakh economic and trade relations, and this is also the best period in the history of Sino-Kazakh economic and trade cooperation.

When it comes to the interaction between China and the countries of Central Asia, there is another country that cannot be avoided, and that is Russia. We can find that in this series of data listed by Tokayev, 2023 is a critical time node. It was in this year that the economic and trade cooperation between China and Kazakhstan was significantly improved, and at this time, it was also a time when Russia was deeply involved in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and focused most of its energy on the battlefield.

Previously, Russia had viewed Central Asia as its "backyard" and had strong security concerns about it. However, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia's attention to Central Asian countries has also decreased significantly, which has given Central Asian countries room to deepen relations with other countries, and the economic and trade cooperation between China and Kazakhstan has also been significantly improved at this time.

The Chinese high-level is about to leave, Tokayev is fully prepared, and the initiative in Central Asia will be handed over to China

(The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has provided an opportunity for economic cooperation between China and Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries)

In addition, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Central Asian countries have also begun to have some "wariness" against Russia, especially Kazakhstan, which not only takes the initiative to deepen relations with China, but also the West. At such times, the strengthening of economic cooperation between China and Kazakhstan can hedge against Western influence in Kazakhstan, thereby ensuring that Kazakhstan maintains a balance between Eastern and Western countries.

Compared with the West's continuous infiltration of influence in Kazakhstan, the deepening of economic and trade cooperation between China and Kazakhstan is obviously the most desirable thing for Russia at present. Against the backdrop of Russia's weakening influence on Central Asian countries, Russia at this moment also needs China to fill the gap and stabilize Central Asian countries from turning to the West. Therefore, the Russian side no longer minds the deepening of relations between China and Central Asian countries, but is still trying to promote this matter.

Earlier, when Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov talked about the security of the Central Asian region, he specifically brought China, saying that "the Central Asian region cannot become a Western bridgehead similar to Ukraine, otherwise it will threaten China and Russia." Such a sentence is enough to prove the current change in Russia's mentality towards the Central Asian region.

The Chinese high-level is about to leave, Tokayev is fully prepared, and the initiative in Central Asia will be handed over to China

(Lavrov once mentioned that Central Asia is important for both China and Russia)

The change in Russia's mentality will naturally give China a lot of room for deepening relations with Central Asian countries, and will also provide a good environment for cooperation between China and Central Asian countries. Of course, this also reflects the enhancement of strategic mutual trust between China and Russia, and it is precisely because Russia trusts China that it is willing to work with them to safeguard the security and stability of the Central Asian region.

It should be mentioned that Tokayev listed the data on the eve of the visit of the Chinese leader to Kazakhstan.

According to the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, from July 2 to 6, Chinese leaders will attend the SCO summit in Astana and pay state visits to Kazakhstan and Tajikistan at the invitation of the presidents of the two countries.

Tokayev's special listing of this series of data at this time is obviously also to look forward to the future development of Sino-Kazakh economic and trade relations and attract Chinese investment. Therefore, it is foreseeable that the key direction of the development of China-Kazakhstan relations in the future will focus on the economic field.

The Chinese high-level is about to leave, Tokayev is fully prepared, and the initiative in Central Asia will be handed over to China

(China-Kazakhstan economic and trade cooperation has a lot of room for development)

Kazakhstan is a country rich in oil and gas resources and mineral resources, so in the fields of energy, infrastructure, mineral exploitation and green industries, China and Kazakhstan can achieve win-win cooperation, and there is still a lot of room for development in economic and trade cooperation between China and Kazakhstan.

The current Central Asian region is different from the past, from Russia's "security game" to regional economic development is the focus, and in this process, China will become the leader. Russia's mentality has changed, and the situation in Central Asia has also changed, so it is a matter of course for China to expand economic and trade cooperation with Central Asian countries.

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