"I am ambitious and spend a lot of money, but the yield is miserable." This little poem is used to describe Samsung Electronics' encounter with 3nm chip technology, which can be described as extremely appropriate. The semiconductor industry, the most competitive field in the world, has once again staged the drama of "the greater the expectation, the greater the disappointment".
Back then, Samsung Electronics, a technology giant known as the "cosmic power" South Korea, spent 840 billion yuan and vowed to develop 3nm chip technology, which made the entire science and technology community look sideways. The 3nm process is regarded as the next pinnacle of semiconductor technology, and whoever masters it will be able to take the lead in the market. Samsung undoubtedly wants to take this opportunity to consolidate its position as the semiconductor hegemon.
However, the reality is always so cruel. According to media reports, Samsung's 3nm chip yield is far lower than expected, and even the thrilling news that the yield rate is 0% at one point. Although it was later confirmed that this was fake news, the actual yield rate was only slightly less than 20%, which is a world of difference compared to the industry standard of 60%. Yield, a key indicator to evaluate the maturity of semiconductor process technology, gave Samsung a heavy blow.
Samsung's investment in the 3nm project is not a small amount. 116 billion US dollars, or about 842 billion yuan, which not only includes R&D costs, but also the construction costs of the next two 3nm factories. It can be said that Samsung has done almost everything for this technology. However, compared to TSMC's 3nm process factory, which uses a FinFET architecture and has a capacity utilization rate of more than 100%, Samsung's GAA architecture has encountered significant challenges in actual production.
Back then, when Samsung officially announced the world's first mass production of 3 nanometers in 2022, it was ambitious, as if it had seen a bright future for itself to encroach on TSMC's orders. However, two years have passed, and Samsung has not gotten the order it wanted. This setback has had a ripple effect on the entire semiconductor industry.
At the same time, although TSMC is about six months behind Samsung in terms of release time, its yield and production scale continue to grow steadily. In January 2023, Liu Deyin, former chairman of TSMC, proudly said in a speech that the yield of its 3nm process has reached the same level as that of the 5nm process in the same period. Analysts from many overseas analytical institutions estimate that its yield rate may be as high as 80%. Such an achievement is undoubtedly a kind of irony for Samsung.
In September 2023, TSMC successfully won an order from Apple. The A17 Pro chip of the iPhone 15 Pro series uses TSMC's 3nm process for the first time, which marks the official entry of the smartphone industry into the 3nm era. In the first half of this year, following Apple, the Android mobile phone market also began to adopt 3nm chips on a large scale, and TSMC continuously received orders from large customers such as MediaTek and Qualcomm. Such market performance undoubtedly makes TSMC's position in the semiconductor industry more stable.
However, for Samsung, the reality is harsh. Qualcomm has decided to adjust its supply chain strategy for its next-generation processor, the Snapdragon 8 Gen4, and no longer follow the original model of "TSMC as the primary supplier and Samsung as the secondary supplier". This is undoubtedly a blow to Samsung. Rival TSMC has received orders from major manufacturers including Nvidia, Apple, and Intel, further consolidating its market position.
According to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, Qualcomm could become the exclusive SoC supplier for Samsung's Galaxy S25 series. This is a hint, you don't want it, then my product will be used by myself? Such an ending is undoubtedly embarrassing. Samsung's 3nm chip road has come to an embarrassing situation.
With AI servers, high-performance computing applications, and the pursuit of AI features in the high-end smartphone market, the demand for cutting-edge process chips has risen sharply. Industry giants Apple, Qualcomm, Nvidia and AMD have preemptively booked TSMC's 3nm chip manufacturing capacity, and their orders have been scheduled until 2026. Such market demand undoubtedly makes TSMC's position in the semiconductor industry more unshakable.
Looking back at Samsung's 3nm chip road, we can't help but ask: is the technology not mature enough? Or is there a mistake in the marketing strategy? Perhaps, the reason for this can only be explained by Samsung itself. But in any case, the resurgence of the semiconductor rivers and lakes has left us with profound lessons and thoughts. In the future competition of science and technology, whoever can master the core technology will be able to occupy the market opportunity. For Samsung, this 3nm chip gamble is undoubtedly a profound lesson.
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