Zelensky has finally relented and intends to negotiate with Russia through a third party, so what will the two sides talk about, and will it be successful?
According to Ukrainian media reports, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview that Russia and Ukraine do not need to hold negotiations directly, and can refer to the Black Sea agreement model, where Russia and Ukraine first hold negotiations with a third party, and the third party coordinates in the middle to facilitate the agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
At that time, Ukraine was unable to transport grain to the international market due to the war, and in order to solve this problem, Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey signed a tripartite agreement, guaranteed by Turkey, promising that Ukraine's grain ships would not be used for military purposes, and persuading Russia to lift the blockade.
This is where the "Black Sea Grain Corridor" came from, and now Ukraine wants to replicate it again. But the probability of success is actually not great, there are two main reasons, first, the negotiation conditions between Russia and Ukraine are not the same, and both sides have different interests.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Russia will only agree to hold talks if Ukraine withdraws its troops from Donetsk, Luhansk and other regions. From this point of view, Russia's goal is to occupy the land in eastern Ukraine, but this is related to the territorial integrity of Ukraine, and Zelensky is unwilling to give up the lost territory.
In fact, Russia has no choice, because Ukraine has been seeking to join NATO, and Russia's military action was in response to NATO's eastward expansion. If the conflict ends like this, it will be difficult for Russia to ensure that NATO will continue to expand in the future.
To be on the safe side, Russia wants Ukraine to make concessions and turn the four eastern regions of Ukraine into a buffer zone between Russia and NATO, and Zelensky will also promise not to join NATO, so that Putin can rest assured.
But Ukraine is also distrustful of Russia, and Zelensky has made it clear that Putin's proposal is "not credible", that is, Ukraine will not take the initiative to withdraw its troops and will continue to fight Russia in the eastern region of Ukraine until the winner is decided.
In fact, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia and Ukraine have also tried to hold negotiations, but there has been no result. Even if other countries are involved in mediation, it may not make a difference, and the key is that Russia and Ukraine must reach a consensus before they can talk about the next step.
In addition, if we want to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Western countries must also stop arching the fire and create a good negotiation environment for Russia and Ukraine. At present, Russia is also facing economic sanctions from the West, which will not solve the problem and will only increase the contradictions between Russia and Ukraine.
In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Western countries are clearly biased towards Ukraine, and the responsibility for the Russia-Ukraine conflict is shifted to Russia. In order to counter the Russian army, Western countries have provided Ukraine with a large number of weapons in the past. Last month, the United States approved another $275 million in military aid to Ukraine.
Objectively speaking, Western aid did play a role, originally there was a strength gap between Ukraine and Russia, and at the very beginning, the Ukrainian army was defeated and retreated. Later, with Western weapons, Ukraine turned the tide on the battlefield and successfully resisted the offensive of the Russian army.
In an interview, Zelensky did not forget to brag about the achievements of the Ukrainian army, saying that in the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions, the Russian-Ukrainian war loss ratio is 6 to 1, and the Russian army's losses are much greater. Zelensky's words are for the West, mainly to get more aid from the West.
However, according to US media reports, many of the weapons provided by the United States to Ukraine are missing, and a total of $62.2 million in supplies are missing.
In fact, Russia has warned the United States before that Western weapons in Ukraine are flowing into the black market. If these weapons are sold to terrorists, they could have a negative impact on the security situation in the region. The U.S. government did not take this seriously until the problem became serious.
It is possible that the US government is acting behind the scenes, and US Deputy Secretary of State Nuland has publicly stated that the funds of the US aid to Ukraine bill will "flow back" to the United States and be invested in US military production. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the United States itself may misappropriate aid, and the United States is actually making a lot of war money under the guise of "aiding Ukraine".
In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the United States is not really on the side of Ukraine, and the United States will only constantly adjust its foreign policy according to its own interests. Ukraine, which completely follows the United States, may be taken to the pit of fire.