China's new energy vehicle industry is developing rapidly, and has become the world's largest producer, consumer and exporter of new energy vehicles. At the same time, the "war of encirclement" from Europe and the United States seems to be unfolding. On the front foot, the United States introduced new rules on subsidies for electric vehicles and raised import tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles from 25% to 100%; On the back foot, the European Union announced that it intends to impose a temporary countervailing duty of 17.4%~38.1% on Chinese-made electric vehicles, and even European and American brands produced in China have been affected. Canada has also recently reported that it is considering following the policies of the United States and the European Union and imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
Why is the rise of China's new energy vehicle industry so vigilant in Western countries? In the face of this "encirclement", how should China respond? Recently, Wang Qing, deputy director of the Market Economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, was interviewed by a reporter from China Automotive News, where he made an in-depth analysis and put forward countermeasures. 01 "Vigilance is an expected reaction"
Regarding the move of the United States, the European Union and even Canada, Wang Qing said: "New energy vehicles are the intersection of a new round of technological revolution, involving new technologies such as transportation, energy, materials, and artificial intelligence, and they are also one of the commanding heights of the future global manufacturing industry with great development potential and high technical level." Therefore, major economies are very concerned and attach great importance to new energy vehicles, and focus on improving their technological competitiveness and production capacity, which is especially obvious in Europe. From this point of view, it is normal and expected to be wary of foreign products entering the domestic market quickly and to take restrictive measures. ”
However, Wang Qing also believes that the situation in the United States and the European Union is not quite the same, and the United States is trying to restrict and suppress China in all aspects of science and technology and high-tech products, and "de-sinicize" the global supply chain; The EU and China have both competition and cooperation, and have relatively more interests in China, and hope to share the development dividends of China's development as the world's largest new energy vehicle market through cooperation. From the point of view of means, the United States restricts China's new energy vehicles through a set of policy systems including tariffs, capital markets, technical cooperation, and new subsidy regulations, while the EU adopts more indirect means such as carbon barriers and temporary tariffs.
For example, German automakers such as Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz, which are highly dependent on the Chinese market, as well as the German auto industry, have been opposed to the EU's move to impose tariffs. BMW Group Chairman Zipzer believes that the European Commission's decision to impose tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles is a wrong decision, and the tariffs will hinder the development of European car companies and damage Europe's own interests. Mercedes-Benz Group has stated that if protectionist trends are allowed to rise, there will be negative consequences for all stakeholders. Volkswagen Group also said that the imposition of countervailing duties is not conducive to the competitiveness of the European automotive industry, and will do more harm than good to Europe, especially the German automotive industry.
However, perhaps the rapid development of China's electric vehicle products and technologies has indeed given the EU an unprecedented sense of crisis. Despite the strong opposition of Germany, Hungary and other countries, the decision to impose tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles was adopted by the European Union under the impetus of France, Spain, Italy and other countries.
"Countries like Canada may be on the same side, while the EU is more out of consideration for its own interests, especially in an election year, when right-wing forces move more, and economic policies toward China tend to appear more radical and tough." Wang Qing pointed out. 02 "An inevitable phenomenon in the growth of a major automobile country" Next, it depends on how China responds. "If we respond properly, through active communication and negotiation, it is possible that the situation will evolve in the direction of improvement, in a direction acceptable to both parties. Countries within the EU that oppose tariffs are also mainly concerned with cooperation with China and long-term interests in the Chinese market. If we don't have effective response plans and strategies, it is likely that there will be a 'broken window' effect, and more countries that would otherwise be neutral or have scruples will implement similar policies." Wang Qing said. In response, after the EU announced plans to impose tariffs, there were rumors that the Chinese industry requested temporary tariffs on products including pork and dairy products, as well as European large-displacement fuel vehicles, in order to counter the EU. Statistics show that in 2023, China imported about 250,000 cars with a displacement of more than 2.5 liters, accounting for 32% of the total number of imported cars.
In this regard, Wang Qing pointed out: "This is just a defensive strategy, you punch me, I kick you back, this way of dealing is not impossible, but it is difficult to fundamentally solve the problems we are facing, as well as some internal dilemmas faced by European countries." After all, compared with our exports, the competitiveness of European and American imported cars in the Chinese market has declined in recent years, and even the market position of BBA (BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi) in China has also declined, and it is increasingly falling into the volume price of price for volume. In addition, in previous trade disputes, we tended to be more passive, focusing more on low-priced and easily substituted goods. Different from the previous trade war, we are competitive in the export of new energy vehicles and other 'new three', and the technical level and product price are relatively cost-effective. ”
Wang Qing believes that at present, in the global layout of new energy vehicles, we should adopt more offensive strategies. Specifically, by strengthening bilateral and multilateral negotiations, the domestic auto industry and market will be more open and inclusive, so that more European companies can share the dividends of China's market growth, technological innovation and business model innovation, and form a development pattern of "you have me, I have you" and "one prosper and one loses"; Let global economies and multinational companies see that strengthening in-depth cooperation with China and Chinese enterprises in technology, market, capital and standards is the fundamental path conducive to their own long-term development and competitiveness, and then steadily promote the global layout of new energy vehicles, and enhance the inclusiveness of China's new energy vehicle global development from the overall situation.
In addition, "from the perspective of international experience, whether it is Japan, Germany, or South Korea, their vehicle exports have a peak level, such as Japan and Germany, which eventually stabilized at the level of 4.5 million ~ 5 million units. In this way, a relative balance of interests can be achieved between importing and exporting countries. That is to say, when your products come in, it will not have much impact on my domestic market and manufacturers, and at the same time form effective competition, so that domestic consumers also have more choices. If there are too many of them, for example, Japan's global vehicle exports were once as high as 8 million units, and then the United States and European countries have taken action to suppress them, forcing Japan to carry out global production capacity layout and replace vehicle exports with local production through quota restrictions and exchange rates. This is also a staged phenomenon in the growth of a large automobile country, and it is an inevitable result. These measures are also offensive responses. Wang Qing said. 03"Overseas factory construction is the only way"
"Promoting the construction of overseas factories is the direction and trend of China's new energy vehicle globalization layout in the next step. Even if the other party does not require us to build a factory locally, based on trade, tariffs, investment and other barriers, under the dual consideration of reducing costs and breaking through barriers, we will gradually enter the stage of global production capacity layout and technology output, which is the general trend. At present, we have started the layout of industrial chain and supply chain in Southeast Asia, Europe, South America and other places. Wang Qing mentioned.
It is understood that in Europe, some Chinese car companies are already promoting or exploring localized production. In Spain, for example, Chery is building its first production base in Europe, using the former Nissan plant. BYD, for its part, will build its first passenger car plant in Europe in Hungary. It is also reported that Great Wall Motors is also in talks with Hungary for its first European plant.
Wang Qing said: "Now the view of the European and American industries is that China's new energy vehicle products are competitive. If a factory is opened in a certain country, it will not only bring spillover effects such as employment, tax revenue, technology, and innovation to the local area, but also bring pressure and challenges to local automakers. Of course, the cost of building a factory overseas is high, and there are also great risks, which specifically involve the equity distribution of investment, the proportion of localization, the requirements for the origin of raw materials and parts, and the obligation of battery recycling. However, we will also have some comprehensive advantages, including supply chain advantages, parts and components collaborative innovation advantages, and mature experience explored in China. To a large extent, overseas factory construction and innovation and development are not a process from scratch and from zero to one, but a process of improving and applying relatively mature technologies, products and business models overseas. ”
The auto industry is a pillar industry in the EU, making a huge contribution to employment and finance in major EU countries, and Chinese car companies building factories in Europe can bring local employment and tax revenue. At present, Hungary, Spain, Italy, Turkey, etc., are actively recruiting Chinese companies.
Wang Qing pointed out: "Many European countries still welcome Chinese new energy vehicle manufacturers to build factories, especially to transfer the industrial chain to the past, including batteries, electronic control, and even the construction and operation of charging facilities, they are happy to see it." However, in this process, some harsh requirements may also be put forward, such as equity ratio, carbon footprint accounting, battery material formula disclosure, etc., and some unreasonable requirements and conditions should be avoided as much as possible. There is also a risk that once the technical level of our overseas products, product updates and iterations, and product cost performance are reduced, especially when the local supporting capacity and level are rapidly improved, our parts, products and even the supply chain may face the risk of being replaced. The domestic market is the base for our overseas expansion, and the domestic market and the overseas market can be connected in terms of technology, capital, supply chain, etc., so we should strengthen domestic technology research and development, strengthen the reserve of forward-looking cutting-edge technology, so as to ensure sustainable relative leadership. ”
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Text: Zhang Dongmei Editor/Layout: Li Peiyang
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