Yesterday, the central mother suddenly made a move and issued such an announcement: to carry out treasury bond borrowing operations to some primary dealers in the open market.
The official announcement is not easy to understand, and the words are: the central bank believes that the current bond market and treasury bonds are rising too crazy, and is ready to borrow treasury bonds to sell short, pouring cold water on the bond market and cooling down.
So, just how crazy are the bond market and Treasury bonds? For example, the 30-year treasury bond ETF fund has risen by 9% in just half a year......
1. Yang Ma was angry and sold it backhandedly!
The screenshot of Yang Ma's specific announcement is as follows:
This announcement is widely believed by the market that the central bank will borrow treasury bonds and short sell them, which is bearish for the bond market.
Image source: People's Bank of China
For example, CITIC Securities believes that the central bank's move means that it may carry out treasury bond sales in the open market in the near future, and when the yield of 10-year treasury bonds falls to a historical low, selling treasury bonds is conducive to stabilizing long-term bond interest rates and preventing interest rate risks.
Therefore, as soon as the announcement came out, Treasury bond futures plummeted, and as of the close, 30-year Treasury bond futures fell 1.06% in one day.
Treasury bonds, in turn, are the anchor of the bond market, causing all bonds to fall......
Speaking of which, I believe many investors will ask the central mother's suppression, is the debt bull coming to an end? Has the bond market plummeted as a result? What should we do with the people?
Before analyzing the answers, let's go back to the source and analyze why the central bank made a move.
Second, the bond market has risen too much
Looking back on the bond market in recent years, except for two waves of retracement, it has been steadily rising at other times, and it is still rising steadily recently, which is much stronger than the miserable A-shares.
Source: iFind; As of July 1, 2024
But the risks add up quickly.
If the beginning and midway of this round of the bond market are normal performance, then up to now, investors are hotly chasing and buying, and the market has gone to an abnormal and irrational state.
There is even speculation with funds and leverage!
Borrow money with short-term low interest rates to buy long-term bonds with high interest rates, and earn interest rate differentials by means of maturity mismatch.
The central bank has been adjusting market expectations before, and has made many warnings. For example, on June 19, the governor of the central bank said at the Lujiazui forum, "At present, we should pay special attention to the maturity mismatch and interest rate risk of some non-bank entities that hold a large number of medium and long-term bonds." ”
At the same time, there are also some funds that take the opportunity to disseminate small essays that sing the decline of the domestic economy. This has led to a greater lack of confidence in the market, which has accelerated the rise in the bond market.
All of the above has made the bond market and the bond base more and more hot, and even crazy.
For example, the 30-year treasury bond ETF fund has risen by 8.95% and nearly 9% in just half a year. There is also a 10-year local bond ETF fund, which also rose by 5.75% in half a year.
Source: iFind; As of June 30, 2024
Obviously, the risk of the bond market is accelerating, and once something happens later, it may fall very much!
3. What should we do with the people?
To sum up, the main intention of the central bank to issue an announcement to borrow treasury bonds is to suppress speculation and take the initiative to cool down the bond market, not to completely suppress the bond market.
My view is that the domestic economic recovery is weak, and there is a high probability that there will be a slight interest rate cut. However, when the Fed cuts interest rates, there will be more room to cut interest rates.
Therefore, under the weak economic recovery, interest rate cuts are still the trend, and bond bulls will continue. But it takes time to change space, and it can only fluctuate after a pullback.
As for short-term investment, you can pay more attention to short-term bond funds, which have a relatively small impact!
Taking yesterday as an example, the duration of different bonds was affected very differently: short-term bonds had less impact and fell less. Long-term bonds have a big impact and fall more.
Specifically: Yesterday, 2-year Treasury bond futures fell 0.08%; 5-year Treasury futures fell 0.24%; 10-year Treasury futures fell 0.37%; 30-year Treasury futures fell 1.06%. That is, the longer the duration, the greater the impact.
Who to choose?
In the huge fund data, we have selected 4 short-term bond funds with good performance, and the interested background kicks me to get the list, Ps: The list is also attached with 10 medium and long-term pure bond funds for your reference for long-term asset allocation.
At the end of the article, I would like to make a risk reminder by the way:
The central bank borrowed treasury bonds to sell them short-handedly to cool down the bond market, which clearly shows that the bond market is very hot in the short term. Investors with heavier positions should pay attention to controlling the positions of bond-based positions, as well as reducing positions and taking profits.
In addition, it is advisable to pay more attention to the opportunities of equity assets now.
I am also not afraid of being scolded, and I am more vigilant in particularly hot places, and only when the scolding continues will there be a greater chance. Again, investment is against human nature.
The so-called crisis is the only opportunity in the crisis.
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Disclaimer: The content of this article is based on public information research and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make prudent decisions and bear risks independently.
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