- The market is in a trough stage, the major indices are at a low level, and companies are in a serious undervaluation stage after a long period of adjustment
- The market has continuous incremental funds, foreign funds, and domestic funds, but incremental funds continue to be supported
Through these two points, let's analyze our views on the market outlook
- First of all, the current A-shares, we believe that they are in a relatively undervalued stage, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, the CSI 300, the Shanghai Composite Index, etc., after nearly 3 consecutive years of decline, have been adjusted in place, and at the beginning of the year it fell to 2635, which is one of the future bullish logic, no problem!
- The second point, about incremental funds, when the economy picks up, I also talked about when the Fed will cut interest rates, probably after the U.S. election, after the next leader is determined, that is, after November this year, if the Fed cuts interest rates, then all countries around the world have corresponding incremental funds to begin to enter or return, and our country will also have foreign capital to continue to enter, and we believe that once the Fed cuts interest rates, it will be a large rate cut, and at the same time, our country is also releasing signalsIf the Fed cuts interest rates, we will cut interest rates as well, so that our domestic money will also flow out of bank savings.
The second big background is the Fed's interest rate hike
- In the past 20 years, although the United States is in decline, but the stock market is really rising, and the dollar is still an international currency, after World War II to today, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 6 times, after each rate hike, the global economy. Economic development will inevitably slow down!
- In 2022, the Federal Reserve will begin to raise interest rates, and the energy crisis caused by the Russia-Ukraine war will be superimposed, and Europe, Japan and South Korea will be tossed to the point of dying, wanting to die, and the economy will be in full recession! Quite simply, the interest rate on capital in U.S. banks is now nearly 5.5%, and the cost of capital for borrowing and investing has also reached a high interest rate of nearly 5.5%. How can Ji be good?
- China joined the WTO in 2001, and now it has become the world's largest trading country, the world's only industrial hegemon, has long been a part of globalization, in such a situation, it is difficult to stand alone, and today, everyone has tacitly understood why the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, one is the problem of the domestic election, and there is the consumption of our China, waiting for the opportunity to harvest a handful of China, in the context of the Fed's interest rate hikes, the global economy can not be good, before the slow growth of developed countries, We have grown rapidly, and now their peak has fallen, and we are still developing steadily! There are indeed a lot of complaints, compared with the vast majority of countries, we are stable and stable development!
- In early trading today, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes opened slightly lower, and the stock indexes of the two cities diverged after the opening, the Shanghai Composite Index launched a narrow range around the opening price, and the Shenzhen Component Index fluctuated, and to the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly by 0.08%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.97%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.05%. From a technical point of view, the Shanghai index on the daily K-line chart macd green column continued to shrink, the KDJ indicator also continued to extend upward, the bulls are stronger, but the current trading volume is obviously insufficient, there is a certain uncertainty in the market outlook, the three major indexes are differentiated, the Shanghai index is strong, the gem index is adjusted again, the turnover is 644.6 billion, the shrinkage is 13.4 billion, now the market liquidity is very tight, the lack of money rebound is indeed difficult, the limit is 50, the limit is 2, up 2358, down 2553, The outflow of domestic capital was 14.79 billion yuan. Individual stocks show a divergent trend, the overall sentiment is stable, today the Shanghai Composite Index to turn red still depends on the rise of the banking sector and PetroChina, the actual Shenzhen Component Index and the Growth Enterprise Market are still in a downward trend, and there is no signal to stop falling, relying on more than 600 billion energy, the market to continue to rebound is still very difficult, if you continue to shrink on Wednesday, it is likely to step back, and then it may break through 3000. Let's take it one step at a time.
- The plate is still a rapid rotation, Monday's rise in the top rare earth permanent magnet and other plates, Tuesday are the top decline, today is the strongest overfall, the over-fall fundamentals have not changed, not far is essentially the over-fall rotation, no sustainability. Another active sector is tax reform, tax reform is the main tone of this year's conference, the reform is very strong, the tax basically involves all aspects, from the subject matter of hype, that magnitude is large enough, it is expected that the follow-up will be repeated performance, until a day or two before the conference will be the cash period. The above views are for reference only.
Stock recommendation: The recommended stock 603386 Junya Technology in the early stage, from June 25 to July 2, the short-term yield reached 25%, and the short-term goal has been reached.