The birth rate of the population may welcome a "small spring" this year Expert: It is necessary to boost fertility confidence in many aspects
Recently, a news that "the number of births in the mainland in 2024 may welcome a slight rebound" has made the population issue a hot topic again. According to a number of experts, there should be some upward fluctuations in the number of births this year.
Many netizens said that deep-seated socio-economic factors such as the high cost of living, the pressure on women's career development, and the shortage of educational resources have affected the continuous decline in fertility. In this regard, some experts pointed out that it is necessary to boost confidence in childbirth from many aspects, and the birth policy should not only solve the problem of "not daring to give birth and not wanting to give birth", but also pay attention to the problem of "not being able to give birth".
The total population has fallen for two consecutive years, can it meet the inflection point this year?
In recent years, the number of births in China has continued to decline, which has aroused widespread concern in society. According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the national population will be 140967 at the end of 2023, a decrease of 2.08 million from the end of the previous year. The natural growth rate of the population was -1.48 per thousand, negative growth for two consecutive years.
The annual birth population was 9.02 million, a decrease of 540,000 over the previous year, and the birth rate was 6.39 per thousand, declining for the seventh consecutive year.
It is worth noting that due to policy incentives, the rebound of fertility intentions after the epidemic and the impact of the Year of the Dragon in the Chinese zodiac, some institutions predict that the negative growth of the Chinese population may moderate slightly in 2024. Yuwa Population recently released the "Chinese Population Situation Report" pointed out that the number of births in mainland China may rebound slightly in 2024. Specifically, it is mainly due to three factors: first, the effect of the relevant measures introduced by the government to encourage childbirth is gradually emerging; Second, after the epidemic is over, many families choose to realize their fertility wishes in 2024; The third is the cultural preference for a specific year, and the Year of the Dragon brings the "Dragon Treasure" fever.
This projected "small spring" phenomenon has undoubtedly added a touch of luster to the sluggish fertility rate in recent years. Will the total number of Chinese continue to rise? Ren Yuan, a professor at the Institute of Population Research at Fudan University, said in an interview with Aoyi News that from the perspective of the mainland's future population development trend, "negative population growth in the long-term trend is a foregone conclusion, but it is not ruled out that there will be some fluctuations in a number of years." "The number of births in the mainland may rebound in 2024, which can be seen in the growth of the number of marriages in the mainland in 2023," he said. "The number of marriages per year is a valid reference indicator for the number of births in the following year. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the number of marriage registrations nationwide in 2023 will be 7.68 million couples, an increase of 12.36% from the previous year.
Ren Yuan also said that considering that the number of deaths in the mainland is still increasing every year, it is unlikely that the total population will grow positively in 2024.
Song Jian, deputy director of the Population and Development Research Center of the Chinese University, also said in an interview with the media at the beginning of this year, "There should be some upward fluctuations in the number of births in the mainland in 2024, but it is still difficult to exceed the number of births of 10 million." "A short-term fertility rebound cannot solve the long-term problem, and we still need to continue to boost fertility confidence.
The government and enterprises relay "moves" to encourage childbirth
Why are young people now more and more reluctant to have children? With the liberalization of the two-child and three-child policies, the topic of childbirth has become the focus of high social attention. The reporter interviewed a number of netizens and found that many young people will have ambivalence of "hesitation, discouragement" or even "want to have but dare not give birth" in the issue of childbirth, which is rooted in the time and money costs involved in childbirth, parenting, education and other links, as well as the pressure of housing, education, employment and other aspects.
In fact, since the implementation of the "three-child policy" in May 2021, in order to effectively reduce the burden of family childbirth and parenting, and promote the long-term balanced development of the population, the national and enterprise level actions have not stopped.
From the perspective of national policies, in 2022, 17 departments, including the National Health Commission and the National Development and Reform Commission, jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Further Improving and Implementing Positive Childbirth Support Measures", introducing 20 specific measures to implement fertility support policies, requiring in-depth implementation of the policy that a couple can have three children and supporting measures, considering marriage, childbirth, parenting, and education, and improving and implementing positive childbirth support measures such as finance, taxation, insurance, education, housing, and employment. Earnestly solve the problems of the masses' urgency, hardship, and longing. In order to encourage childbirth, local governments have also initiated the revision of local population and family planning regulations, including the full implementation of the five systems for maternal and child safety, the protection of women's employment rights, the issuance of maternity allowances and childcare subsidies, the strengthening of housing security support, and the addition of "paternity leave" for men.
In addition to governments at all levels, many enterprises have also joined the team to encourage childbirth. According to the reporter's statistics, since 2021, more than ten well-known companies have issued measures to encourage employees to give birth. Among them, there are many companies such as Ctrip Group, Qunar, Sanqi Mutual Entertainment, Miniso, Greentown Group, Dabeinong, Qiaoyin Co., Ltd. and many other companies.
A Ctrip employee and her twin daughters. Photo courtesy of the interviewee
"Giving birth to a child is really money." The reporter learned from the interview that on July 1, Ctrip announced the results of the first anniversary of the birth subsidy: as of June 30, 2024, a total of 541 employees who meet the policy of receiving the policy, and the number of children is 550, including 9 pairs of twins, according to the policy of subsidy of 50,000 yuan per child, 550 "Cheng second generation" newborns will "happy" 27.5 million yuan in birth subsidy cash, which will be distributed from this year until the child reaches the age of 5. According to preliminary estimates, Ctrip plans to invest 1 billion yuan in maternity subsidies in the future to encourage employees to give birth.
In June this year, Sanqi Mutual Entertainment released the "New Generation Plan", which plans to spend more than 10 million yuan to provide maternity benefits for eligible in-service employees and create a "childbirth-friendly" enterprise. Specifically, this budget will provide 20,000 yuan per child for regular employees who have been in the company for 2 years to reduce the pressure on everyone in terms of childbirth. For the case of "multiple children of the same child", the amount of the fund will increase by 10,000 yuan for each additional child, and so on. The cumulative method can allow families with many children to receive more financial support and effectively alleviate the financial burden of raising children. It is important to note that this fund not only benefits female employees, but also male employees.
The birth policy should also pay attention to the problem of "not being able to give birth".
Population is a complex system, and fertility support policies involve many aspects of society. In addition to "not wanting to give birth" and "not daring to give birth", "not being able to give birth" caused by fertility difficulties and infertility at an advanced age is also one of the reasons why the fertility rate is at a low level at this stage.
"According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the current infertility rate in the mainland has reached 12%-18%, indicating that a considerable number of families cannot meet their fertility wishes." Ren Yuan pointed out: "Especially with the increase in the average age of women of childbearing age and the increase in the proportion of pregnant women who are pregnant and give birth, the problem of infertility and how to give birth safely has become more prominent. ”
Wanting to have a baby but not being able to conceive has become a problem for many families of childbearing age. How to solve the problem of "can't give birth"? Ren Yuan suggested: "Our health and health policy needs to strengthen assisted reproductive medical services, improve the level of assisted reproductive technology research and development and technical services, so as to meet the reproductive needs of the older population." ”
It is understood that assisted reproduction is through artificial insemination and IVF and other technologies, so that couples suffering from infertility or family genetic diseases can conceive and give birth to healthy fetuses, which can effectively solve the problem of "unable to give birth" in families with fertility intentions.
However, for a long time, most of the assisted reproductive medical services have been priced by medical institutions, and the once diverse and "mixed" assisted reproductive medical services and prices have dazzled patients and have no way to start. Standardizing and integrating assisted reproductive medical services and including assisted reproductive projects in medical insurance is an important measure for medical insurance policies to promote the construction of a childbirth-friendly society.
The reporter combed and found that from July 1, 2023, Beijing will officially include 16 therapeutic assisted reproductive technology projects in Beijing medical insurance, firing the "first shot" of assisted reproduction into medical insurance.
Subsequently, some places explored and strengthened the role of social security and medical insurance (including maternity insurance), and 4 provinces, including Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and Gansu, respectively included 8, 9, and 12 assisted reproductive medical service projects into the scope of basic medical insurance payment according to procedures.
From July 1, 2024, Jiangsu announced that 13 assisted reproductive medical service projects such as "embryo culture" and neuraxial labor analgesia projects will be included in the scope of payment by the medical insurance fund.
Population issues have always been a complex and important issue. Only by accurately grasping the population situation and formulating policies in accordance with local conditions can we better cope with the various challenges facing population development in the future. Ren Yuan said that in view of the ideology of "not wanting to have children", it is necessary to construct a happier and more prosperous economic life and social order, promote the construction of a reproductive culture based on life and emotion, and thus improve people's motivation and willingness to have children; In view of the behavioral decision-making of "not daring to have children", it is necessary to reduce the economic, social and institutional restrictions on childbirth, improve the well-being of family life, and form a childbirth-friendly social environment by improving the social policies supporting childbirth. In order to achieve fertility that cannot be born, it is necessary to help women and men achieve unfulfilled pregnancies and childbearing, as well as high-quality pregnancy and childbirth, through fertility preservation and support.
Written by: Aoyi News reporter Guan Yuhui