Soybean meal market: According to the latest institutional data, up to now, in terms of domestic soybean meal prices, Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Tianjin, the spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in the coastal areas is 3200~3280 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal is stable!
At present, in terms of the external disk, USDA US quarterly soybean inventories and new soybean planting area data released, the market maintains a neutral and bearish situation, among them, CBOT soybean November contract price at 1104 cents / bushel, lower than the US soybean planting cost of 1192 cents / bushel, US beans further decline space is limited, in the short term, the market may maintain the bottom of the shock pattern! Of course, due to the impact of the La Niña event, the theme of hyping the weather in the later stage may increase, and there may be a market for the U.S. bean market!
In the domestic market, last week, the operating rate of domestic sample oil mills was 62%, and the weekly average soybean crushing scale was 2.1794 million tons, slightly higher than market expectations, and this week, the agency estimated that the operating rate was 56%, and the average weekly soybean crushing was about 1.97 million tons!
According to the analysis of the agency, the oil price operating rate is expected to decline, mainly due to the increase in the pressure of spot soybean meal, due to the sufficient inventory of imported raw materials, the inventory level of soybean meal is approaching 1 million tons, and according to agency data, the soybean port in July will still reach 9.78 million tons, and the arrival of soybeans in August will be 10.5 million tons, and the supply of soybean meal will maintain loose fundamentals!
On the demand side, in the near future, feed companies have a certain amount of bargain replenishment operations, however, affected by precipitation and high temperatures, soybean meal storage is difficult, downstream market purchase and sales are still cautious, the market is mostly based on rigid procurement, oil mills are still facing a certain pressure of expansion!
Therefore, based on many factors in the market, the spot fundamentals of soybean meal are under pressure, but as the U.S. soybean market tends to bottom, the cost of imported soybeans is still supported, it is expected that the domestic spot soybean meal has limited room for further decline, and the market may maintain the trend of "grinding the bottom" in the short term!
Refined oil market: according to the refined oil price management mechanism, the current stage of oil prices in the 14th price adjustment cycle of the year, in the previous 13 oil price adjustment process, domestic oil prices showed a "6 up, 4 down 3 stranded" situation, among them, after the rise and fall deduction, gasoline prices rose by 590 yuan / ton, diesel rose 570 yuan / ton, converted to the price of 92 gasoline around the year rose by about 0.47 yuan!
Oil prices are "soaring", and the refined oil products continue to "rise and fall less" during the year, in particular, the market shows obvious seasonal performance, the first quarter of oil prices are strong, the second quarter of oil prices are weak, and according to institutional analysis, the third quarter of oil prices or will be stronger again!
According to agency data, referring to the changes in global crude oil prices on July 1, WTI crude oil rose by $1.84 to $83.38 per barrel; Brent crude oil rose 1.6 US dollars, up to 86.6 US dollars / barrel, three trading days before the end of the current pricing cycle, the rate of change of crude oil was 1.98%, and the price of gasoline and diesel is estimated to rise by 100 yuan / ton, equivalent to the price of 92 / 95 gasoline rose by about 0.08 ~ 0.1 yuan / liter!
Since the domestic oil price is based on the changes in crude oil in the three places, the final direction of oil price adjustment in this cycle will also depend on the trend of the international market!
From a rational point of view, the crude oil market presents strong fundamentals, in particular, the summer energy consumption season is gradually realized, and the oil-producing countries continue to reduce production at this stage, moreover, the geopolitical tension is highlighted, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates is expected to be advanced to the end of September, therefore, the center of gravity of crude oil prices is strong, but the market is also facing certain pressure!
In particular, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy has repeatedly "jumped horizontally", the prospects for the US economic recovery are weak, and the market is still worried that the consumption of energy in the peak season is less than expected!
Therefore, under the long and short game, international oil prices may be dominated by strong shocks, and in the domestic market, in this round of pricing cycle, the rate of change of crude oil will continue to rise slowly, at 24 o'clock on July 11, 2024, oil prices will rise or will be the general trend, however, the rise may not be as good as the performance of the previous round, the author will continue to pay attention to the development of the market, everyone told each other, oil prices will rise again......
Attached: On July 3, the price of 92/95 gasoline at gas stations in various provinces and cities across the country!
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