June 30 and July 7, 2024 can be described as "the days that will decide where French politics will go".
On the night of the European Parliament elections on June 9, Macron urgently dissolved the National Assembly and decided to hold early parliamentary elections.
Two rounds of elections to the National Assembly were held on 30 June and 7 July, respectively. Bruno Le Maire, France's minister of economy and finance, described the election as "the most consequence in the history of the Fifth Republic", and the French media even said that Macron was "gambling on his own political future".
On the evening of June 30, the first round of voting in the National Assembly election ended, let's first see what the results were.
The first round of voting in the French National Assembly has ended
In a word: the far-right National Alliance and its Republican allies are far ahead of the New Popular Front and Macron's camp in the first round of Congress!
根据法国内政部6月30日晚间公布的投票结果,极右翼政党国民联盟(RN,Le Rassemblement national)及其盟友获得了33.4%的选票,包括玛丽·勒庞(Marine Le Pen)在内的39名议员在第一轮选举中当选;左翼联盟新人民阵线(NFP,The New Popular Front)以27.98%的得票率位居第二,共有32人当选;马克龙阵营(Ensemble)则以20.76%的得票率位居第三。
Based on the results of the vote, Ipsos estimates that the National Alliance and its allies will eventually win between 230 and 280 seats, and the New Popular Front will receive between 125 and 165 seats. The majority of the incumbent president lagged far behind, winning only 70 to 100 seats.
When the congressional election is conducted, every voter is a witness and writer of history, and every vote counts. It is worth mentioning that the voter turnout in the first round of the elections that has ended has reached a record high, with 66.71% of the 49.5 million voters participating, which is the highest turnout since the first round of the parliamentary election in 1997.
Among them, 30% of voters believe that purchasing power is their top concern, followed by immigration (18%), and 8% of voters are mainly concerned about environmental protection.
At the same time, the results of the first round of voting show that Macron has "fallen out of favor" among young people. "Young people don't support Macron, they see Macron out of touch with the times." Jean-Daniel Lévy, a French political science expert, explains.
Macron into an "international joke"?
The defeat of the Macron camp in the first round of the parliamentary election immediately caused widespread discussion in the local French media.
On July 1, Le Parisien commented that "the re-election of MPs is like a crash test, a self-destructive disaster". Other French media also agreed that Macron "made a bet", that he lost, and worse, that the result of the first round of the election was a disaster for his camp.
《阿尔萨斯新报》(Dernières Nouvelles d'Alsace)认为马克龙决定提前举行国会大选太过"冒险",他为此付出了高昂的代价。
"Chaos" and "falling into the unknown"...... The direction of French politics has also attracted the attention of the international media. For a time, Macron was in a worrying situation, and the "jokes" he made spread from home to abroad......
"France is on the edge of a precipice", the British newspaper The Guardian commented as early as June 24 that Macron's "reckless gamble" proved to be a gift to Marine Le Pen and the radical right.
After the first round of voting, the international media described the far-right's achievements as "historic", saying that "Macron's gamble has failed, and he has to face a government led by the National Alliance, which has the potential to send a 'shockwave' to Europe." ”
Marine Le Pen's appearance of opening arms and returning triumphantly appeared on the front pages of many newspapers. Spain's newspaper El País writes that "the far right won its first victory in congressional elections"; The Austrian newspaper Die Presse notes that "right-wing populists have achieved a clear victory in the fight against President Macron's camp".
The Financial Times warned that "this vote will send shockwaves across Europe"; The Wall Street Journal also stressed the importance of the French congressional election: "A victory for the National League will mark a turning point in the history of the French Fifth Republic." ”
Appearing on the front story page of the Brazilian media Globo newspaper were Marie Le Pen smiling behind a horde of waving flags and President Emmanuel Macron, "isolated" by the alliance of the far right and the left. The Argentine newspaper Clarín described the results of the first round of voting as "angry and disappointing".
There are also many media outlets in other countries that have expressed concern about the outcome of the parliamentary election. "Le Pen wins, France is divided", concludes the Italian newspaper La Repubblica, "and the vote in seven days [on July 7] will be decisive". The Belgian newspaper La Libre predicted that France would be plunged into chaos and a "vortex of unknowns".
Newspapers around the world agree that the parliamentary election was a turning point for France. The Spanish newspaper La Vanguard did not shy away from expressing regret over the "political earthquake" in France, and even considered Macron to become "the most hated figure in French politics."
What will happen after the second round of voting?
At the end of the first round of voting, only the top two candidates and the candidates with 12.5 per cent of the total number of voters in each constituency will advance to the next round. Voters will need to choose between two, three or even four candidates next Sunday, July 7.
So, in the second round of voting, anything is possible. Let's take a look at the possible outcomes.
1. One of the three camps obtains an absolute majority
The precondition for an "absolute majority" (la majorité absolue) is that one of the three camps of the President, the New Popular Front or the National Rally occupies 289 seats (more than half) of the 577 MPs. At that time, the next French prime minister will be elected from among the winners.
If the presidential camp wins the "gamble", Gabriel Attal will most likely remain prime minister; If the New Popular Front wins an absolute majority, the prime minister has not yet been decided; If the National Rassemblement wins, Jordán Bardra will be the choice to go to the Martingnon, and Macron will become the third president of the Republic to be forced to appoint a prime minister "against himself", after Mitterrand and Chirac.
2. Macron's camp gets a relative majority
The situation is slightly complicated when none of the three camps achieves an absolute majority, but instead a relative majority. The largest party with a relative majority needs to form an alliance with other parties to agree on certain legal provisions in the National Assembly.
The last impasse is the least likely, and never before: after two rounds of elections for MPs, no party will be able to form a ruling coalition. The Constitution stipulates that "the parliament shall not be dissolved and the voters reconvened for one year", so such a stalemate, if it arises, could last for a long time, and France will be plunged into an unprecedented political crisis.
Now, the results of the first round of the June 30 parliamentary election have been decided.
In just a few days, the day will come to decide the fate of French politics and the situation of President Emmanuel Macron. What kind of "bloody rain" will be set off this week? When it is full of uncertainties, what kind of "historic moment" will we witness? Just let time give us the answer.
European Times France WeChat public account: francezone
(Editor: Liu Tao)
![The first round of the election is out, Macron is unfavorable, can his "political gamble" win?[fig]](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=)