🌟 Star "Dairy Online"
Receive every fresh Tweet in a timely manner1. Compare to the last auction and the same period last year: changes in the number of GDT placements
Compared with the previous period, due to entering the new production season, all varieties have increased significantly; Compared with last year, the amount of anhydrous cream and butter was reduced more, the whole milk powder was stable, and the skimmed milk powder was slightly reduced in consideration of the Pulse diversion; Compared to the June 18 auction announcement, the anhydrous cream was reduced compared to the expected amount, which was significantly added to the more profitable butter product.
Estimated volume for the next four placements (tons)
Whole milk powder and skimmed milk powder increased significantly, while butter and anhydrous remained stable and butter was slightly tight due to the flexible adjustment between products.
Medium- and long-term forecast for future launches: the overall supply will not change in the next 12 months, and the supply of UHT degreasing and low-temperature degreasing will be tight in the next 2 months.
2. Domestic spot prices
Domestic spot prices in late June and the transaction price of the last auction (taking CP2 as an example)
Milk powder is easy to fall and difficult to rise, and once again fell into the inverted range.
3. Peripheral related news surface
1. China's economy related: In June, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month, and the manufacturing industry was basically stable. The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.5 percent, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the critical point, and the non-manufacturing industry continued to expand. The composite PMI output index was 50.5 percent, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and higher than the critical point, indicating that the production and business activities of mainland enterprises continued to expand on the whole, and the overall economic performance was weaker than expected.
2. U.S. economic data: The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, was flat in May from the previous month, rising 2.6% year-on-year, compared with a 2.7% increase in April, and the PCE report was largely in line with expectations. Combined with the slightly weaker consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data earlier this month, it shows that inflation in the United States is on a slowing trend. However, after the release of the data, the latest rate cut expectations were pushed back to September.
3. U.S. dollar exchange rate: The Fed's hawkish stance on interest rates has supported the continued rise of the U.S. dollar exchange rate.
4. The latest production data of major international dairy exporters are released: Argentina fell 14.5% as of April 24; Australia up 4.8% as of April '24; New Zealand fell 1.4% year-on-year as of May; The annual output of the EU27 countries as of April rose 1.1%; U.S. output fell 0.20% as of May; Uruguay fell 2.3% as of May; In terms of overall production in exporting countries, global supply increased slightly by 0.2% due to unsatisfactory production in the United States and Argentina, and overall supply was slightly tighter.
5. Major demanders Brazil rose 2.0% from January to December, Japan (up 1.2%) as of May, Mexico as of May (+2.1%), the United Kingdom as of April as of the same level, Russia as of April (+2.0%), Turkey as of April up 8.7%; China's raw milk increased by 5.1% year-on-year in the first quarter.
6. It is said that due to the high inventory of ambient milk and yogurt, some major dairy companies will resume powder spraying from July.
7. Spot launch of domestic dairy enterprises: leading dairy companies continue to vigorously promote domestic milk powder, and the price has not reached a new low.
8. International futures market: The long butter orders signed by international traders in the early stage began to take profits, suppressing the price of the European market.
9. Fresh milk prices: According to statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture, as of June 20, the average purchase price inside and outside the contract in 10 major fresh milk producing areas such as Inner Mongolia and Hebei was 3.29 yuan/kg, down 0.3% month-on-month and 13.6% year-on-year.
Fourth, the price trend forecast anhydrous cream: began to put the new season production capacity in large quantities, but the overall domestic spot market is stable, the inventory pressure is not large, the demand is acceptable, and it is expected to fall slightly.
Unsalted butter: the auction supply has increased, the main brands have shipped in large quantities, the spot price has been inverted, and the unexpected factors in the last auction have caused excessive increases that need to be corrected, and they are bearish.
Cheddar cheese: overall consumption is down, foreign cheese production is increasing, and the price trend is weak and bearish.
Skimmed milk powder: the overall supply increased slightly, consumption was flat, traders were unprofitable, bearish.
Whole milk powder: began to increase seasonally, superimposed spot continued to callback, bearish.
Whole Milk Powder Auction Price and Dairy Online Pre-auction Voting Results (as of the 358th auction)
Historical auctions can be found here
Picks:
●Debt-ridden, Bright Dairy's subsidiary is in trouble
●Heavy! Fonterra announces the divestiture of its consumer products business and the departure of its CEO for Global Markets
● Mengniu Dairy suddenly changed its leadership, and the new head came from COFCO Coca-Cola
Forum:
●The "2024 Dairy Beijing Forum" hosted by Dairy Online was successfully held
●The "2023 Cheese Industry Innovation and Development Forum" hosted by Dairy Online was successfully held
Cheese Talking大奖：
●“Cheese Talking” 最受期待奶酪产品大奖名单公布
●“Cheese Talking”奶酪产品十佳榜单公布
Bulk Dairy Trader Grand Prix:
●Leaderboard | The 2nd Bulk Dairy Trader Grand Prix (8th Batch Points Announced)
Report:
●Analysis and Forecast of China's Dairy Industry Development Situation (2023-2024)
●Report | China's dairy market outlook for 2023
●Report | Research report on the development and investment of China's cheese market
Live broadcast:
●Live | Dairy market trend outlook for 2023
●Live | Dairy raw material trade practice
●Live | Trends and innovations in the dairy industry in the digital age
●Live | How the dairy industry is responding to global inflation2
●Live | How the dairy industry is responding to global inflation1
●Application | Inaugural Best Dairy Trader Grand Prix
●Report | 2022 Dairy Trends White Paper
GDT：
●2024 GDT Tender Time Reminder
For consultation and cooperation, please add Xiaobian WeChat