Abstract: Accelerate the construction of moats
Text: Wang Wei
A number of car companies are making efforts to hybridize or supercharge, and while fighting in various market segments, there is also a continuous dark war in the field of battery swapping.
When the asset-heavy battery swap model has become a distinctive label on its body, NIO is also suffering the most severe and sharp doubts.
On June 13, NIO's first batch of fourth-generation battery swap stations was officially put into operation. Compared with the previous generation of battery swap stations, the battery swap speed is 22% faster, and the battery swap can be completed within 3 minutes. This is very close to the refueling experience of fuel vehicles.
In addition to NIO's battery swap alliance, CATL has reached cooperation with a number of partners on battery swap projects. One by one, "battery swap alliances" have been formed, and their own industrial layout has been accelerated.
Today, although there are still many problems to be solved around battery swap stations, no one can deny NIO's strength and status in the field of battery swapping.
Some NIO riders even asserted: If the battery swap doesn't fall, NIO can't die!
1. Go online
NIO's world's first fourth-generation battery swap was launched in Guangzhou.
6 ultra-wide-angle LiDARs, 4 OrinX chips, 1016TOPS total computing power, 23 battery bays, 480 service times per day, and the fastest battery replacement time is only 2 minutes and 24 seconds.
Another highlight of NIO's fourth-generation battery swap station is that it supports multi-brand battery swapping. In the past six months, with the addition of FAW, Geely and other car companies, NIO's "battery swap alliance" team has been expanding. The launch of the fourth-generation battery swap station is also the beginning of NIO's efforts to further expand and strengthen the "battery swap alliance".
Looking back at the past 3 generations of battery swap stations:
Generation Station: The first one was completed in May 2018 in Nanshan, Shenzhen, supporting 5 battery compartments, requiring staff to assist in manual parking, with a battery swap time of about 5 minutes and a daily service of about 72 orders
Second-generation station: In April 2021, the first one was completed at Sinopec Chaoying Station in Beijing, increasing the number of battery compartments to 13, supporting automatic battery swapping, with a battery swap duration of about 4 minutes and a daily service of 312 orders
Third-generation station: The first one will be completed in Shangri-La, Haikou in March 2023, increasing the number of battery compartments to 21, shortening the battery swap time to 3 minutes and 30 seconds, and the maximum daily service capacity is 408
NIO's third-generation battery swap station is equipped with up to 2 LiDARs and 2 OrinX chips, with a total computing power of 508TOPS, making charging and swapping a single station a whole.
Compared with the previous generation of battery swap stations, the fourth-generation station supports independent battery swapping when leaving the car, and the battery swap speed is increased by 22%.
In addition to the improvement of hardware computing power, compared with the third-generation battery swap station, the most essential feature of NIO's fourth-generation battery swap station is the direct opening to the shared network:
As of June 30, NIO's third-generation stations have more than 1,100 units, and the renovated stations are compatible with Ledao batteries. The fourth-generation battery swap stations will be connected to a third-party shared brand network from the beginning of completion, and NIO plans to build 1,000 4.0 battery swap stations within the year.
From the first 1.0 to the first 4.0, NIO has been digging the "moat" for 6 years, and now it has reached the most critical time.
Second, break the game
The high investment in infrastructure construction such as battery swap stations, as well as the disproportionality of investment returns and doubtful profitability, have made the battery swap model highly questioned by the industry. As a result, NIO has been criticized by the market, believing that this has dragged down NIO's overall financial performance and is one of the factors for NIO's delay in making profits.
Now, NIO wants to break that dilemma.
While the policy supports the "battery swap mode", through the expanding circle of friends for battery swapping and accelerating technological innovation in the battery swap station, we will make ourselves the "evangelist" and leader on the battery swap track. Even with the development of energy businesses such as battery swapping, this business is expected to become an important source of revenue for NIO in addition to car sales.
In the fourth quarter of last year, sales of "energy solutions" and accessories accounted for 9.7% of NIO's revenue, while Li Bin expects revenue from the energy system to account for about 20% of NIO's overall revenue.
According to Zhu Yulong, an automotive analyst, NIO's ability to maintain the differentiated advantages of pure electric vehicles is basically related to the infrastructure of battery swapping. Of course, the current input-output ratio is lower.
Shen Fei, senior vice president of NIO Energy, revealed that the break-even point of the battery swap station is 60 orders per station a day, which includes service fees, electricity fees and other expenses to cover the cost of operation and depreciation of the battery swap station. Currently, 20% of NIO's stations are able to exceed the breakeven point.
This means that NIO needs to have enough users to use NIO's battery swap stations. This is also the reason why NIO needs more partners to join the "battery swap alliance", and it can also be seen from their cooperation agreement that the scope of cooperation includes the formulation of battery swap standards, the joint construction of battery swap networks, and so on. If it goes well, the problems of standardization and high construction costs that have hindered the development of the battery swap industry in the past will also be gradually solved with the implementation of cooperation.
At that time, NIO's technology accumulation in battery swapping in the past seven years will also be able to be exported to the outside world, and the revenue and gross profit margin of its energy business will also be improved with the implementation of cooperation.
The imagination of the battery swap station does not stop there. As an energy storage device, the battery swap station can assist the power grid in peak regulation and frequency regulation, and has become an important component in power grid dispatching. Many places are also piloting V2G (vehicle-to-network interaction), so that vehicles, charging stations and power grids can be integrated and developed, and can participate in scenarios such as virtual power plants and aggregation transactions.
According to the forecast of CICC and other institutions, the policy is helping to accelerate the implementation of the battery swap industry, including battery swap station operators, battery banks and other battery swap industry segments, and the overall market size will exceed 200 billion yuan in 2025.
Battery swap stations are no longer just one-way service for car owners, but can play a greater role in the grid network of the future. With enough battery swap station enterprises, they can also become energy operation service providers in the future.
Similarly, at the end of May, NIO Energy received a strategic investment of 1.5 billion yuan from Wuhan Guangchuang Fund and other institutions. Li Bin also said that NIO Energy also has an independent financing plan in the future, and will continue to open up financing in the future.
With the influx of partners and capital, NIO's battery swap business is also shifting from heavy to light. At present, dozens of battery swap stations have been built and owned by partners, entered the NIO network, and handed over to NIO for operation.
It's also going to be a very sexy story about the transition between old and new energy sources. It can also be seen from the current industrial layout of many car companies that the future car companies will no longer be limited to vehicle manufacturing, but will make efforts in software technology, platform authorization, energy operation and other fields. The traditional boundaries between car companies and suppliers have been broken, and a new industry ecology is taking shape.
This is also a new way for China to reshape the industrial chain and promote the development of the global automotive industry by virtue of its first-mover advantage and gaining the first opportunity in the new energy vehicle industry.
Lessons
At present, data shows that NIO has accumulated more than 46.43 million real-time battery swaps, and there are 2,435 battery swap stations and 2,281 supercharging stations across the country.
However, when battery swapping becomes the most personalized label, NIO still needs to face the "sinking paradox" brought about by battery swapping stations.
In the high-end pure electric market, NIO's performance in the sinking market is not ideal.
According to the statistics of the Miaotou APP, NIO has a total of 508 stores across the country, of which 16% are located in first-tier cities, and these 16% of stores have contributed 25.5% of the new car growth in the past nine months. In cities outside the second tier, the monthly increase in new cars is only between 10% and 20%.
With battery swapping as the fundamental attraction, NIO's battery swap stations are sinking in the 4-5 tier market but have a certain lag.
Yang Chao, head of product development at NIO Energy, once elaborated on the layout logic of the battery swap station: Taking a county as an example, if charging is more convenient and the sales end does not have market conditions, the layout of the battery swap station will be slower, and the battery swap station and the sales system will sink at the same time, so as to achieve long-term hematopoietic development.
In fact, compared with the first-tier and new first-tier cities where every inch of land is valuable, the 4th-5th tier cities in China are indeed more suitable markets for the implementation of home charging. The lack of AC ports, the high energy consumption of dual motors, and the body price of 3-40,000 yuan more expensive than products of the same level have weakened NIO's combat effectiveness in the sinking market.
The poor incremental performance of new vehicles, and the sluggish layout of battery swap stations, NIO needs to take the initiative to break the deadlock.
As a result, Ledao became a breakthrough point for NIO to expand its influence, and its first model, the L60, was equipped with a 900V high-voltage platform, optimizing energy consumption performance to the best in its class, and devoting itself to the largest family SUV market in China.
The derivation of the Ledao brand will more effectively activate the demand for battery swapping in the 4-5 offline sinking market, and assume a pioneering role for NIO in the downward penetration.
NIO's top priority is to iterate more efficiently to the NT3 platform after digesting the sales peak brought about by this round of new BaaS solutions, and make up for the weakest link in the energy consumption of NIO's products through the 900V voltage architecture.
NT3, which has a higher degree of maturity, contains the next growth peak of NIO, and it is also the decisive card for NIO to turn losses into profits.
epilogue
If NIO's battery swap strategy can be successfully rolled out, then everything from battery swap infrastructure to technology and services will be replicated and extended among NIO's brands. This is a complete set of systematic capabilities that top players such as Zeekr and Ideal do not have. Li Bin's long-term horizontal R&D layout of casting a wide net will also be reined in and transformed into a powerful combat force.
It can be said that at this moment, NIO is entering a key node in the positive cycle, trying to depict its own blueprint for the battery swap empire.