On July 2, 2024, the UK Day will focus on:
● Ahead of this week's UK election, the pound is expected to rise by 2%
● Millionaire industrialists switched from supporting the Conservative Party to supporting the Labour Party
● British royal horses reappear in an unleashed accident and run wild through the streets of London
● UK house prices rose slightly in June, with high mortgages dragging down the property market
UK election preview this week, the pound is expected to rise by 2%
The 2024 UK general election will be held the day after tomorrow (July 4), and analysts believe that the pound will rise by nearly 2% against the dollar in the quarter after the UK election, but the gains will disappear after 12 months.
At the same time, as the election date draws closer and the number and frequency of opinion polls increases, investors will pay more attention to the pound in the near future than before, which will lead to increased volatility in the pound exchange rate. In addition, the US elections are also held this year, and only four months apart, the volatility of the GBP/USD exchange rate is expected to rise further.
The second time in history that the UK and US elections were held in the same year was in 1992. At the time, there was a seven-month gap between the two elections, and GBP/USD volatility had been above historical averages for the 12 months leading up to the UK election.
Returning to the specific arrangements for the general election in the United Kingdom, voters will start voting on July 4 and end at 10 p.m. local time on the same day. The results should be revealed before dawn local time on July 5.
The House of Commons needs a total of 326 seats to secure a majority, and Labour is currently leading the way in a number of polls.
If Labour wins a big win and gains a majority, this could spur the pound to the upside. At the same time, the Bank of England's policy will also determine the direction of the pound, and the expected rate cut may limit gains.
If Labour has a slim majority in Parliament, this will make Labour more reliant on the left and increase the likelihood of a more expansionary fiscal policy in the future, which could also pose downside risks to the pound.
Alternatively, if Labour does not win an outright majority, they rely on the support of the Liberal Democrats and/or the Scottish National Party to form a coalition government. In this context, the likelihood of Scotland calling for an independence referendum will increase, and this increased uncertainty could weaken the economic growth outlook and lead to a fall in the Bank of England interest rate – creating significant downside risks to the pound and UK GDP.
Millionaire industrialists switched from supporting the Conservative Party to supporting the Labour Party
《每日电讯报》消息称，原本长期支持执政保守党的英国百万富翁实业家哈里斯男爵（Lord Harris of Peckham）最新表态转而支持工党。
Baron Harris is the founder of Carpetright, the UK's largest carpet chain, and has also contributed to the UK education sector, with his charity, the Harris Federation, which operates more than 50 primary and secondary schools in poor areas of London.
Harris was made a baron by Margaret Thatcher and promoted to the British House of Lords by John Major. In total, Harris has donated more than £1.1 million to the Conservative Party over the past 20 years.
But now, Harris said, Britain's ruling Conservative Party is no longer a party that is constantly raising the country's education standards, and the party seems to have "run out of options" when it comes to education. As a result, he turned to support the Labour Party, hoping that the Party would focus on improving education.
British royal horses reappeared in a relapse and ran wild through the streets of London
On the morning of July 1, local time, the British Royal Cavalry horses had another reined accident - a total of three horses, including the lead horse, were frightened by a London bus during the exercise and broke away from the rider's control.
One of the horses crashed into a London taxi.
The UK Ministry of Defence then said all three horses had been recovered "quickly and safely", with one horse suffering minor injuries but no riders injured.
On April 24, the British Household Cavalry also had a horse reincarnation, when a white horse ran through the streets of London covered in blood after crashing into a double-decker bus.
UK house prices rose slightly in June, with high mortgages weighing on the property market
On July 1, 2024, the British bank Nationwide released data showing that in the year to June this year, UK house prices rose slightly by 1.5%, or £3,825; Compared to May, house prices rose by 0.2%. Currently, the average price of a property in the UK is £266,064.
Nationwide also pointed out that rising borrowing costs are still a drag on the overall property market in the UK, with UK property transactions down by around 15% compared to 2019.
More people are buying homes with cash compared to pre-pandemic levels, with property cash transactions up 5% from pre-pandemic levels; The number of mortgaged home purchases has decreased, falling by nearly 25%.