After the epidemic, the mainland economy began to resume growth, and among the world's major economies, the mainland's real GDP growth rate is among the highest, second only to India, and significantly more than developed countries such as the United States, Europe and Japan.
But at the same time, the fly in the ointment is that the revenge consumption and revenge employment predicted by many experts have not appeared. In the face of the current social and economic situation in China, many institutions predict that in the next few years, the country may face four unprecedented trends, and everyone should prepare in advance.
They are: 1. Many jobs will be replaced by AI, and high salaries and high education will become the hardest hit areas; 2. Prices are getting cheaper and cheaper; 3. The market competition is becoming more and more fierce; 4. The downward trend in housing prices will continue.
First, many jobs will be replaced by AI, and high salaries and high education will be the hardest hit areas
According to the "2024 Asia Global Talent Trends" report recently released by Mercer, a global human resource management consulting company, with the development of AI technology, a quarter of executives say that AI will fundamentally change their business model, and 80% of jobs will change significantly in the next three years due to generative AI.
Unlike in the past, people with high salaries and high education will become the hardest hit areas by AI in the future. On June 19, according to Citi's latest research report, jobs related to the financial industry, including banking, insurance and capital markets, will be the hardest hit areas to be replaced by AI.
About 54% of jobs across the banking sector have high automation potential, while 48% and 40% of jobs in the insurance and capital markets industries have "very high automation potential", respectively.
In addition, the "automation potential" of the energy sector is 43%, the travel sector 38%, the software platform sector 36%, the retail sector 34%, and the communications and media sector 33%.
All of the above industries are traditional high-paying industries, especially in banking, capital markets, software platforms, communications and media.
A related study by the Bank of Korea and McKinsey last year showed similar results: AI has a greater impact on people with high education and incomes, because AI can more easily replace these jobs. In the past, highly educated people were relatively less affected by technological advances, and the impact of this AI substitution on various industries and occupations will be unprecedentedly widespread.
Second, the prices of many goods are getting cheaper
Unlike in the past, in recent years, the supply growth rate of many industries has significantly exceeded the growth rate of demand, which has led to frequent price wars in industries such as automobiles. Against this backdrop, the mainland's CPI has hovered at a low level in recent years, and in 2023, the mainland's annual consumer price (CPI) will only rise by 0.2% compared with the previous year.
Since 2024, due to the increase in domestic production and imports, the growth rate of market supply exceeding the growth rate of demand, and the intensification of market competition, the prices of many commodities in the mainland have fallen significantly. For example, automobiles, Moutai, beef, ice cream, some imported fruits and domestic fruits, etc.
In this case, unlike in the past, "money" has become more valuable than "money", rather than depreciating.
Third, the market competition is becoming more and more fierce
Due to the intensification of homogeneous competition, in recent years, for many industries, the market competition has become more and more fierce. Due to the influx of a large amount of capital, many industries with good development prospects such as new energy have rapidly changed from short supply to phased overcapacity in a short period of time, and the operating pressure has risen.
At the same time, "talent" is constantly depreciating, and in recent years, the competition faced by the talent market has also intensified. For example, the continuous increase in the number of college graduates has increased the pressure on the depreciation of diplomas. The number of ride-hailing drivers and food delivery drivers in China is increasing sharply, and the average number of orders received is decreasing.
In the future, with the formation and intensification of the substitution effect of artificial intelligence, the competition for most people may become more and more fierce.
Fourth, the downward trend in housing prices is likely to continue
Although, in recent years, the overall housing prices in the mainland have been significantly adjusted. However, from the perspective of market demand and supply, the mainland real estate market will still have insufficient demand and oversupply in the next few years, and will still face greater pressure, and the adjustment of the real estate market will likely continue.
From the perspective of market demand, the current household housing ownership ratio on the mainland is at a high level in the world, which is not only significantly higher than that of developing countries such as India, but also higher than that of developed countries such as the United States.
According to statistics from international agencies, the per capita housing area of the mainland has increased from 36 square meters per person in 2011 to nearly 49 square meters in 2021, which is also at a high level in the international community.
At the same time, due to the slowdown in urbanization and the reversal of the demographic structure, the number of people who need to buy a house has decreased. The leverage ratio and debt-to-income ratio of mainland residents are both at a high level, which also seriously dampens consumer demand for purchases.
In addition, from the perspective of market supply, the supply of real estate in mainland China is obviously excessive, and the vacancy rate of commercial housing is too high. Therefore, the real estate adjustment time may be longer than many people expected.
Therefore, there may be more and more unprecedented trends in the future, and for most ordinary people, it is necessary to prepare in advance, invest prudently, and reduce unnecessary expenses.