Every summer vacation, basically is the super peak season of tourism, everyone seems to be used to it, a variety of hotels, air ticket prices rose on a large scale in the summer, but the situation of this summer vacation is a little strange, after the start of the summer vacation, tourist attractions around the country are indeed quite popular, but what is surprising is that the air ticket hotel that should be running at a high level has a big dive phenomenon, what is the sudden price reduction of summer travel?
1. Summer air tickets and hotels are diving?
According to a report by China News Network, the ticket to #机票酒店不再价格刺客#" to Hailar has taken a big plunge. The ticket price is only 457 yuan. A netizen planned his summer itinerary early, and bought a ticket from Ningbo to Hailar last month, "I was about to leave, only to find that the flight I bought dropped by 1,200 yuan round-trip." "When the travel common sense of "the earlier you book, the cheaper" is refreshed, it reflects the changes in the summer travel market this year.
On the one hand, the two-month summer travel season is an important peak season for airlines to increase revenue in a year, and many airlines are planning to open and encrypt a number of tourist hotspot routes. On the other hand, the analysis of relevant data platforms, with the normalization of the supply and demand side of the tourism industry, the domestic aviation market this year ushered in more full competition, consumers are more sensitive to the price of air tickets, and the tolerance for air ticket holiday increases is reduced.
According to the 21st Century Business Herald, netizen Ms. Liu also found that the temporary itinerary arranged this summer vacation is not expensive to buy air tickets. "According to the previous experience of buying tickets, the earlier you buy, the cheaper, but this year, the time is approaching, and the ticket price is not expensive, and the number of tickets is quite sufficient." She remembers that when she took her children to Changbai Mountain last summer, it was almost a full-price ticket, "96% off or 97% off." The recent airfare price is really pleasantly surprised. ”
According to the "Civil Aviation Weekly" released by Feichangzhun, this year's "summer mode" was opened, and the civil aviation passenger traffic continued to rise. In the first week of the summer season, the national civil aviation carried out 108,000 passenger flights, with an average of 15,400 flights per day, an increase of 5% compared with 2023. The weekly passenger volume was 14.766 million, with a daily average of 2.109 million, an increase of 7% year-on-year in 2023. When the travel common sense of "the earlier you book, the cheaper" is refreshed, it reflects the changes in the summer travel market this year.
According to Guangzhou Daily, "I heard that many scenic spots in Beijing have canceled reservations, and it is really convenient to bring your family to travel!" Mr. Li, a citizen of Guangzhou, is preparing to take his children to Beijing in the summer. Mr. Li inquired about the price of air tickets on a certain platform, "During the summer vacation, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport flies directly to Beijing Capital International Airport, and many air tickets only cost less than 5% off; Beijing Capital International Airport flies directly to Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, and you can see a lot of tickets that are less than 4% off. ”
2. What's the matter with the sudden price reduction of summer travel?
As the traditional tourist season, summer has always been a time when air tickets and hotel prices are high. However, this year's summer travel market has seen an unusual phenomenon - air tickets and hotel prices have plummeted, what is going on? How do we analyze and judge this?
First of all, the price of summer tourism products is the inevitable result of the law of supply and demand. As we all know, the tourism economy is the product of the standard market economy, and friends who are familiar with economics know that the market economy is an economic system that allocates resources through the price mechanism. In this system, the prices of goods and services are mainly determined by the supply and demand in the market. When demand is greater than supply, prices rise; Conversely, when supply exceeds demand, prices fall. The tourism market, as an important part of the market economy, also follows this basic principle.
In the past, the summer vacation was the peak period for family travel and student holiday travel, and the demand of the tourism market would increase significantly. During this period, due to the surge in the number of tourists, the supply of tourism resources (such as the number of air tickets and seats, the number of hotel rooms) is difficult to expand rapidly in a short period of time, resulting in an imbalance between supply and demand, which in turn pushes up the price of air tickets and hotels. This seasonal increase in prices has been a distinctive feature of the tourism market for a long time.
However, since it is a product determined by the law of supply and demand, there will be price increases, and there will also be price declines, and this year's price decline is actually the inevitable result of the law of supply and demand.
Secondly, the rapid increase in flights and hotels has laid the foundation for price reduction. The biggest difference shown by the tourism industry this summer is the significant change in the supply side, which not only reflects the positive expectation of the industry for the recovery of market demand, but also reflects the strategic choice of all parties in the tourism industry in the state of full recovery of the market, and the positive strategy adopted to recover and expand market share.
For example, according to media reports, Air China's average daily flight volume reached 1,444 flights, an increase of 39.2% over the same period in 2019, while China Eastern Airlines' average daily passenger flights also reached 3,213, an increase of 13% compared to 2019, and international and regional flights reached 102% of the same period in 2019. This large increase in supply has a direct impact on market prices. The increase in the number of flights means an increase in transport capacity, which in turn provides more options for tourists. In the past, tourists may have had to accept higher fares due to limited flights, but now the abundant supply of flights has increased competition, and airlines have had to lower prices in order to attract passengers.
At the same time, there has been an increase in hotel supply. As the recovery of the tourism market accelerates, new hotels are being built and expanded, especially in some emerging destinations. This has made the hotel market more competitive and prices have dropped accordingly. According to the Economic Observer, taking Huazhu Group as an example, in 2023, the number of its domestic operating stores will reach 9,263, and 1,641 new stores will be opened in China, exceeding the previous plan of "opening 1,400 new stores", and 3,061 hotels to be opened, both of which have hit a record high in a single year. Coincidentally, well-known hotel chain companies such as Jin Jiang Hotels, BTG Hotels, and Atour Group are all expanding significantly, and price reductions have become a general trend in this situation.
Third, the concentration of tourist destinations in the market is also decreasing, and the trend of market diversification is significant. In the past, summer tourism tended to focus on some popular tourist destinations, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Xi'an, Chengdu, Guilin and other places. However, in recent years, with the shift in consumers' perception of travel, more and more people have begun to pursue personalized and niche travel experiences. Non-popular tourist destinations are becoming more popular, such as small towns with unique natural scenery or cultural characteristics, and even outdoor activities such as rural tours and hiking tours. This change has made the demand for hotels in popular tourist destinations less than it used to be. Tourists are no longer just chasing the traditional hot spots, but are more willing to explore relatively unknown places, which has led to the fact that airfare and hotel prices in popular tourist cities are no longer as high as they used to be.
For example, in the past, people may have been more inclined to go to Suzhou to enjoy the beauty of well-known Suzhou gardens such as the Humble Administrator's Garden and the Master-of-Nets Garden, but now they may choose to go to some of the surrounding Dongting West Mountain, Dongting East Mountain, etc., as well as some good niche ancient towns, such as Mudu Ancient Town, Tongli Ancient Town, etc. These niche destinations have a relatively small number of hotels, less competition, and more affordable prices.
Behind this trend is the popularity of Internet information and the influence of social media, which has made niche travel information more accessible to the general public, stimulating people's interest in exploring the unknown. At the same time, the rise of niche tourism has also promoted the development of the local economy, providing tourists with a richer and more unique travel experience. This change in market structure has indirectly affected the price system of air tickets and hotels, making it more flexible.
Fourth, the price volatility of the tourism industry is starting to increase, which is the most critical. The travel market has always been a volatile market, and its prices are affected by a variety of factors such as seasonality, emergencies, and economic cycles. Affected by the law of supply and demand, although the current air and hotel prices have declined, this does not mean that prices will continue to remain low in the future, but a stage of dynamic fluctuations. Prices will naturally fluctuate as market demand subtly adjusts, such as the rise of new destinations, changes in travel preferences, and consumers' demand for quality and service. As a result, low prices that seem attractive today may rise at some point in the future due to changes in supply and demand, and vice versa.
More significantly, the traditional stereotype of "the sooner you book, the cheaper" is being broken. This change reflects that the domestic tourism market is developing in a more diversified, personalized and intelligent direction. On the one hand, consumers are paying more and more attention to the depth and uniqueness of the tourism experience, rather than simply pursuing price advantages, which makes tourism products no longer just price competition, but turn to multi-dimensional competition such as quality, service, and cultural connotation. On the other hand, the wide application of the Internet and big data technology enables tourism companies to more accurately predict market demand, implement differentiated pricing strategies, and provide consumers with more diversified choices, including customized tours, theme tours, independent travel, etc., to meet the personalized needs of different consumers.
Therefore, the current changes in the tourism market are very worthy of our attention, and for practitioners in every industry, understanding the trend changes behind the market changes is the most important thing to do. #记录我的2024#