The Dow rose more than 740 points for the best in more than a year, the small-cap stock index jumped 3.5%, most of the star technology went out, and gold hit a new high

United States retail sales data for June came in better than expected, with core data rising 0.9% month-on-month, far exceeding expectations of 0.2% and the previous reading of 0.4%, and even higher than Wall Street's most optimistic forecast of 0.5%.

This suggests that consumers still have spending power at the end of the second quarter, and that the main drivers of the United States economy remain firm amid the receding of inflation and the Fed is close to starting to cut interest rates, the commentary said.

The data caused U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar to rise in the short term, and spot gold to fall by about $4 in the short term. Treasury yields then retreated, and spot gold hit a new high above $2,460. Oil prices fell more than 1.3% at one point due to the strength of the dollar and weak oil demand.

According to the CME Fed Watch tool, traders are pricing in a 100% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, with a 93.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September to a range of 5.00%-5.25% and a 6.7% chance of a 50 basis point cut.

Internationally, traders are fully pricing in two 25bp rate cuts by the Bank of United Kingdom this year for the first time since June 21, with the 2-year Treasury yield falling below 4% for the first time this year.

The Dow and the S&P hit record highs, the small-cap stock index rose 3.5%, Apple hit a new high, and China rebounded

The market is no longer limited to technology stocks, and the rotation of funds continues. On Tuesday, July 16, the technology-dominated Nasdaq rose nearly 0.6% at the beginning of the session, approaching a record high, and fell nearly 0.5% at midday; The S&P 500 refreshed its intraday high and closed at an all-time high; The Dow, where blue-chip stocks gathered, rose all the way, rising nearly 2% or 777 points at the highest level, and approached 41,000 points, setting the best single-day performance in more than a year, refreshing intraday highs and closing at record highs; Russell 2000 small-cap stocks also led the major indices again, accelerating their upside and closing at daily highs; The Nasdaq 100 closed slightly higher by 0.06% after falling throughout the day.

As of the close, major U.S. stock indexes closed up across the board, with the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 hitting record highs, the Dow Jones rising for five consecutive days, and small-cap stocks rising 3.5% were the largest gains among major indexes, rising to the highest in two and a half years since January 2022, with a cumulative increase of (nearly) 12% for five consecutive days, and the regional bank index rose more than 4.5% and rose for six consecutive days to the highest in more than a year:

The S&P 500 closed up 35.98 points, or 0.64%, at 5,667.20. The Dow closed up 742.76 points, or 1.85%, at 40,954.48. The Nasdaq closed up 36.77 points, or 0.20%, at 18,509.34.

The Nasdaq 100 index closed up 0.06%; The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of the Nasdaq 100 technology constituents, closed down 0.56%; The fear index VIX closed up 0.53% at 13.19.

The Russell 2000 small-cap closed up 3.50%, with the Russell 2000 outperforming the Nasdaq 100 by 11% in the last four sessions, the largest since 2011. Among the constituents of the Russell 2000 index, California Pacific Biosciences PACB closed up 34.26%, Caribou Biosciences rose 28.17%, ANGO, EB, PRPL, EGHT, PAYS rose 26.64%-20.55%, at least the seventh largest increase, Funko closed down 7.66%, the second-to-last performance, and ASPI fell 8.88%.

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange's KBW Bank Index closed up 3.02%, its highest closing since February 2023. The constituent stocks State Street Bank rose 7.45% to lead the way, Wells Fargo rose more than 4%, Citigroup rose more than 3%, JPMorgan Chase rose 1.7%, and Goldman Sachs rose more than 2% to a new high. At the same time, Charles Schwab, which did not add more than expected brokerage accounts in the second quarter, fell by more than 10%, Morgan Stanley, whose net revenue from wealth management was slightly lower than expected, rose nearly 1%, and Bank of United States, whose trading income exceeded expectations after DVA in the second quarter, rose more than 5%.

The Dow Jones KBW Regional Banks Index closed up 4.54%, with 47 constituents closing higher across the board, led by WSFS Financial with a 7.13% rise and Commerce Bancshares up 2.84% as the "worst performer".

The Russell 2000 has surged more than 10% since last week's "weak" CPI data, while the Nasdaq 100 has slipped down

Among the 11 sectors in the S&P 500, the S&P Industrial sector closed up 2.54%, the raw materials, consumer discretionary, healthcare, financials, and real estate sectors rose 1.96%-1.03%, the energy sector rose 0.35%, the information technology/technology sector closed down 0.38%, and the telecommunications sector fell 0.64%.

The analysis points out that the overall market continues to show a very clear rotation switch, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks, low-momentum stocks outperforming high-momentum stocks, growth stocks outperforming cyclical stocks, and popular short stocks outperforming long-term stocks. Goldman Sachs said the current trading volume is higher than the average of the past 20 days, showing active trading activity. ETFs account for 28% of the share, indicating that investors use ETFs heavily for trading. The trading desk at Goldman Sachs observed a slight bias towards buying, especially led by limit orders, with a buying bias 6% higher than selling. Demand is mainly concentrated in the financials and healthcare sectors, while the technology and consumer discretionary sectors have more supply of sell orders.

More than half of the "Seven Sisters of Technology" fell, and many weakened at midday and closed at a daily low. Tesla performed the best, with U.S. stocks falling more than 2.7% in early trading and continuing to rebound, rising nearly 2.4% at the end of the day, and finally closing up 1.55%; Apple rose nearly 0.8% at the beginning of the session, fell nearly 0.9% at midday, rebounded at the end of the session, and finally closed up 0.18% to hit a new all-time high, with a market value of $3.6 trillion to maintain the first; Amazon rose more than 2% and then went all the way down, and finally closed up 0.16%.

Nvidia dived after rising more than 0.4% at the beginning of the session, and finally closed down 1.62%, with a market value of $3.11 trillion ranking third in U.S. stocks, Microsoft fell nearly 1.5% and finally closed down 0.98%, and "Metaverse" Meta rose nearly 1.6% and then returned to the downward trend, closing down 1.28%; Google A rose more than 1.1% before turning down, and finally closed down 1.4%.

Chip stocks were mixed. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell nearly 1.1% in early trading, and finally rose 0.46%, still approaching an all-time high; Sector ETF SOXX rose 0.62%. Nvidia Double Long ETF fell 3.32%; Qualcomm rose 0.7%, TSMC ADR rose 0.4%, Broadcom fell 1.19%, AMD fell 1.27%, and Micron Technology fell 2.58%.

The trend of AI concept stocks is differentiated. SoundHound.ai rose 3.55%, BigBear.ai rose 6.41%, and Snowflake rose 1.86%; while Oracle fell 0.32%, Dell fell 2.16%, CrowdStrike fell 2.2%, and Supermicro Computer fell 2.31%.

On the message side:

Tesla: Tesla has embarked on a hiring spree again, with plans to hire nearly 800 new employees, after three months ago it carried out the largest layoffs in the company's history. Positions have been popping up on Tesla's job pages in recent weeks, ranging from artificial intelligence specialists to more mundane service positions. The stock moved higher on all trading days during this time, with the exception of one day, when reports reported that Tesla had decided to postpone the release of Robotaxi. Musk confirmed on Monday that he had asked for revisions to the design, and the team was given extra time.

According to LatePost, Tesla will not launch a new model this year, but there may be new batteries. Tesla's battery division will make every effort to improve production yield and efficiency and expand production capacity.

Bank of United States: Net interest income, one of the bank's largest sources of income, fell to $13.7 billion in the three months to the end of June. The bank said earlier this year that net interest income in the second quarter could be the trough of the year, with net interest income (NII) likely climbing to about $14.5 billion in the fourth quarter.

Most of the Chinese concept stock indexes rose. The decline of China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) narrowed significantly to 0.32%; China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) closed up 1.43%; The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) closed up 0.74%.

Among the popular Chinese concept stocks, the new car-making forces rose sharply, with Xpeng Motors up 6.55%, Weilai Automobile up 5.83%, Li Auto up more than 1.4%, and Zeekr up 3.32%; JD.com rose more than 2%, Station B rose more than 1.5%, Baidu rose 0.62%, Alibaba rose 0.47%, Canadian Solar closed up 9.25%, Daqo New Energy rose about 8.6%, JinkoSolar rose 7.3%, while Ctrip fell more than 0.4%, Pinduoduo fell 1.56%, NetEase fell 0.82%, Good Future fell about 1.5%, Atour fell about 2%, Kanzhun Network/Boss Zhipin fell more than 2.7%, and Miniso fell 3.89%.

Among the highly volatile stocks:

Blockchain concept stocks generally closed higher, with Stronghold up more than 16%, Riot Platforms up more than 10%, twice long Bitcoin ETF up more than 5.6%, and twice short Bitcoin ETF down more than 5%.

Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares closed up 1.03% and Class A shares rose 1.13%, both hitting record closing highs for many consecutive days.

European stocks fell for two consecutive days:

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed down 0.28% at 517.30. The Eurozone STOXX 50 index closed down 0.71% at 4,947.83. Among the eurozone blue-chip stocks (a component of the Eurozone STOXX 50 index), Kering fell 3.1% and performed the worst.

Germany's DAX 30 index closed down 0.39%; France's CAC 40 index closed down 0.69%; Italy's FTSE MIB index closed down 0.02%; United Kingdom's FTSE 100 closed down 0.22%; Netherlands AEX closed down 0.43%; Spain's IBEX 35 index closed down 0.96%.

Among the more volatile stocks, Germany luxury goods company Hugo Boss closed down 7.57% after the company sharply cut its full-year profit outlook, citing weakness in key markets such as the United Kingdom. Burberry in United Kingdom fell 5.3%, and the recently released earnings report showed that Burberry Group changed its CEO and issued a profit warning, rethinking its high-end luxury strategy. France insurance company SCR closed down 24.56%.

Against the backdrop of sluggish global consumption, the luxury industry is clouded. According to the media billionaires index, the market has slowed down, LVMH group founder Bernard Arnault has lost the title of the world's richest man, and the wealth of the world's top five luxury owners has evaporated by $24 billion.

Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield falling about 7 basis points to 4.16%, and the two-year Treasury yield falling below 4% for the first time this year

At the end of the session, the yield on the two-year Treasury note, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, fell 3.18 basis points to 4.4256%, trading in a range of 4.4698%-4.4046% during the session. United States The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 6.99 basis points to a new daily low of 4.1595%.

The 10-year German bond yield, the eurozone benchmark, fell 4.5 basis points to 2.427% in late trading, with United States retail sales data hitting a daily low of 2.417% ahead of the release of retail sales data for June. The yield on two-year German bonds fell 3.6 basis points to 2.763%, after hitting a new daily low of 2.745%.

France's 10-year yield fell 3.1 basis points, Italy's 10-year yield fell 4.8 basis points, Spain's 10-year yield fell 3.9 basis points, and Greece's 10-year yield fell 3.6 basis points. United Kingdom's 10-year yield fell 5.2 basis points to 4.049%.

United Kingdom's 2-year government bond yield fell below the 4% integer threshold for the first time this year, with the two-year yield falling 8.0 basis points to 3.984%, amid rising expectations that the United Kingdom central bank will soon start cutting interest rates. Traders expect the United Kingdom Bank to cut rates by 51 basis points by the end of 2024, the first time since June 21 that they have fully priced in two 25 basis point rate cuts.

Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index fell to 41.8 in July, slightly higher than the forecast of 41, and 47.5 in June. Investor confidence in the Germany economy deteriorated for the first time in a year as industry failed to keep pace with the gradual recovery in other sectors. "The economic outlook is deteriorating, Germany's exports fell more than expected in May, political uncertainty in France, and the lack of clarity about the ECB's future monetary policy are all contributing to this trend," ZEW President Achim Wambach said in a statement. ”

A stronger dollar and weak demand weighed on oil prices, with U.S. oil falling more than 1.4% to below $81, the biggest one-day drop in more than three weeks

The U.S. dollar strengthened for the second day in a row and pushed oil prices lower, with oil prices falling for three consecutive days and falling to more than three-week lows. WTI crude oil futures for August delivery closed down $1.15, or more than 1.40%, at $80.76 a barrel. Brent crude oil futures for September delivery closed down $1.12, or about 1.32%, at $83.73 a barrel.

Before the U.S. stock market, U.S. oil and cloth oil went all the way down and refreshed the daily low, U.S. oil fell to $80.22 / barrel, down more than 2% in the day, and cloth oil fell more than 1.8% to $83.30 / barrel.

On the one hand, after Trump's assassination attempt, the rise in the dollar caused oil prices to slide, the analysis said. On the other hand, oil prices came under pressure as China's crude oil imports fell due to a decline in oil demand.

United States natural gas futures for August delivery closed up 1.39% at $2.1880/MMBtu; TTF Netherlands natural gas futures, the European benchmark, rose 4.55% to 32.797 euros/MWh; ICE United Kingdom natural gas futures were up 2.21% at 80.76p/kcal.

The dollar gave up short-term gains from United States retail sales data, and the yen fell below 159 again

DXY, a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.04% to 104.234, trading in a range of 104.197-104.510 after the release of United States retail sales data, pulling from near daily lows to daily highs.

The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell 0.03% to 1,251.76, trading in a range of 1,255.12-1,251.61.

Non-US currencies generally fell. EURUSD was roughly flat after a V-shaped reversal, and GBPUSD was roughly flat after a V-shaped reversal.

The offshore yuan (CNH) fell 145 points to 7.2891 against the dollar, and traded in the range of 7.2730-7.2925 yuan during the session.

Among Asian currencies, USD/JPY rose 0.18% to 158.34 yen, and United States retail sales data hit a new daily high of 158.86 yen after the release of data. The EURJPY rose 0.39% to 172.59, and the GBPJPY rose 0.20% to 205.443.

A comparison of Japan's current account data and currency broker valuations showed that Japan may intervene on Thursday and Friday to support the yen, and the size of the intervention on Friday could be around 2.14 trillion yen ($13.5 billion). The Bank of Japan expects its current account to fall by 2.74 trillion yen on Wednesday due to government fiscal factors, while private money brokers such as Central Tanshi and Ueda Yagi Tanshi expect an average decline of 600 billion yen.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies are on the rise. Bitcoin, the largest leader by market capitalization, rose 1.98% to $64,960.00. Ethereum, the second-largest Ethereum, rose 0.51% to $3,463.00.

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has informed many asset managers that the United States Ethereum ETF may be launched next Tuesday, July 23. Spot ETH ETFs may start trading from next week.

With the double blessing of the "interest rate cut trade" and the "Trump trade", spot gold hit a record high of $2,470

COMEX gold futures for August delivery rose 1.71% to $2,470.4 an ounce, and COMEX silver futures for September delivery rose 1.95% to $31.54 an ounce.

Lower U.S. Treasury yields supported precious metals prices. Before the U.S. stock market, spot gold continued to rise, and when it was close to the end of the day, the gold price rose by more than 1.8% and rose to $2466.61 / ounce, a new record high, breaking through the previous high of $2450.07 / ounce set on May 20; Spot silver U.S. stocks accelerated after falling more than 0.6% in early trading, rising nearly 2.4% and breaking above $31.40.

According to the analysis, weak United States data and dovish expectations of the Federal Reserve supported gold prices, while United States political uncertainty increased by the assassination attempt of former President Trump, as well as rising global geopolitical risks (such as the European debt crisis, financial crisis, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East), further boosted the safe-haven demand for precious metals, and the demand for gold by central banks around the world has soared for many years. UBS said last month that central bank purchases of gold were at their highest level since the late 1960s.

The higher US dollar sent industrial base metals in London lower. The economic bellwether "Dr. Copper" fell nearly 1.45% to $9,664 / ton. London aluminum fell more than 2.27% to $2406 / ton. London lead closed down $4 at $2,184 a ton. London zinc fell about 2.37% to $2,885 / ton. London nickel closed down $107 at $16,594 per ton. Lunxi closed down $75 at $33,171 per tonne.

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