In this "Han Kuang exercise," the Taiwan military originally planned to "threaten" the mainland by conducting a large-scale live-fire exercise in the waters off Kinmen, but the rumored live-fire exercise had not yet begun, and it was ridiculed by professionals on the island.
According to Taiwan sources, the old 240 howitzers that the Taiwan military is preparing to use in the "live-fire exercise" this time are still old.
Lai Qingde's plan was that as soon as he gave the order, the Taiwan artillery battalion in Kinmen opened fire all night.
But anyone who knows a little bit about ordnance knows that this 240 howitzer is an antique at the level of World War II. Not only is the performance outdated, but it also takes several minutes from reloading to launching. If it really arrives on the battlefield, the Taiwan army may have not even been loaded with ammunition, and it will already be covered by the PLA's firepower.
What is even more embarrassing is that in this "live-fire" exercise of the Taiwan military, the artillery shells were disrupted by Typhoon Kemi before they were loaded. The originally planned live-fire shooting was suddenly in vain, and it could only be temporarily changed to a sand table deduction.
However, this phenomenon is not uncommon within Taiwan.
Under the pressure of the PLA, in order to hold on, the Taiwan authorities also wanted to turn Taiwan into a "hedgehog island" and even tried in vain to respond to the PLA's attack by deploying anti-ship missiles. On the one hand, the Taiwan military plans to increase fixed missile positions, and on the other hand, deploy "Hsiungfeng"-2 and "Hsiungfeng"-3 missiles.
However, the island of Taiwan is limited, and no matter how it is arranged, it cannot escape the eyes of the PLA's reconnaissance satellites and drones. These fixed or mobilely deployed missiles and positions are likely to become targets for the PLA's precision strikes in wartime.
As early as after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, the PLA had already envisioned any scenario.
If it faces a frontal battle, the PLA has three options: "fighting, blocking, and boarding." Although "boarding" is the most direct way, it is the most costly and the most complicated to prepare. Therefore, "fighting" and "blocking" have become more feasible options, and the mainland can destroy Taiwan's defense system through long-range strikes, or isolate Taiwan from inside and outside through blockade to force the Taiwan military to surrender.
In fact, there is absolutely no need for the PLA to use force, just the current patrol intensity has already made it impossible for "Taiwan independence" to collapse, and when their psychological defense line is broken, Taiwan can be recovered.
Of course, there is another important variable in the Taiwan Strait issue -- the United States.
Without the military intervention of United States, the Taiwan military would not have been able to hold Taiwan 20 years ago.
United States cannot stop the mainland from taking Taiwan, that's for sure.
Although the United States has the strongest naval force in the world, its military maritime capacity is limited, and it can only transport equipment for several combat brigades at once. And United States's own commercial shipping forces are almost negligible, relying primarily on foreign shipping companies for overseas military operations. To put it bluntly, the United States can at best "threaten and induce" these companies, but cannot force them to serve the US military.
The situation in the Taiwan Strait is complicated, and the PLA's firepower and intelligence reconnaissance have firmly controlled the surrounding sea and air, and any military force of the United States that tries to intervene will be intercepted by the PLA.
United States is not yet good, let alone those allies. Although Japan, Korea, and the Philippines are all around China, Japan, as an isolated island, once involved in a war in the Taiwan Strait, it is a problem for itself to be difficult to protect, not to mention Korea, their attitude is always wavering; The Philippines, and even the Chinese Coast Guard, can't handle it, let alone expect any assistance.
At present, Brown Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of United States, said in public that the US military is confident that it will defeat the Chinese People's Liberation Army in the Taiwan Strait. But this sentence is not recognized, and even Trump does not have the courage to say such a big thing.
Taiwan is already a dead chess piece militarily, and giving up illusions is the only way out.
Moreover, although United States is still clamoring to help Taiwan, everyone can see that the current United States has taken care of itself, and Trump also requires Taiwan to pay "protection fees".
This shows that on the Taiwan Strait issue, United States's attitude is becoming more and more ambiguous and vacillating. Against this background, Taiwan's situation is even more embarrassing and dangerous.
Lai Qingde knows very well that the so-called "Han Kuang exercise" and "live-fire exercise" cannot threaten the mainland at all, and the only thing he can rely on is United States; before the United States' attitude is not clear, he has a thief's heart but not a thief's courage.
According to recent Taiwan media reports, the "Transnational Parliamentary Alliance on China Policy" will hold its annual meeting in Taipei, when about 50 parliamentarians from 25 countries will organize a delegation to visit Taiwan. These parliamentarians come from United States, United Kingdom, Japan, Australia, Canada, Germany, Norway, Sweden, and other countries, and their common characteristics are that they are very unfriendly to their respective countries' China policies and hold a tough and even radical anti-China stance.
Using the influence of the United States and the West to counter the mainland is what Lai Qingde thinks is his last hope.
However, this rabble is only used by the United States and the West to appease him, and if one day, United States wants to protect himself, the Taiwan authorities will be immediately abandoned.