The level of pollution is far higher than that of pure electric vehicles! Toyota's hydrogen energy vehicle was disliked, and 120 scientists jointly signed a boycott: destroying the green image of the Paris Olympics [with hydrogen fuel cell automotive industry prospects]

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The Paris 2024 Olympics are just around the corner, and it is understood that the organizers of the Paris Olympics want to hold the "greenest Olympics ever", and for this reason, they will try to rely entirely on renewable energy to host the Games.

It is understood that Toyota will provide 500 Mirai and 10 buses at this Olympic Games, all of which are powered by hydrogen technology. In addition, 1,150 electric vehicles will be used to transport athletes.

Although Toyota says the hydrogen used in the Mirai is extracted from water and organic matter, 120 scientists, engineers and academics signed an open letter still opposing the promotion of the car.

Experts point out that although hydrogen is seen as a potential clean energy solution, more than 96% of hydrogen currently worldwide still relies on fossil fuel production, making most hydrogen-powered vehicles far more polluting than pure electric vehicles and only slightly cleaner than traditional internal combustion engine vehicles. They believe that "green hydrogen" made by electrolysis of water from renewable energy sources such as wind and solar is not currently available to motorists, and that the infrastructure of hydrogen refueling stations is relatively lagging behind, further limiting the popularity of hydrogen vehicles. In the letter, they mentioned that the use of Toyota's hydrogen vehicles for the Olympics is contrary to the concept of 'net zero emissions', so they called for the use of pure electric vehicles instead of hydrogen vehicles.

Toyota Mirai is Toyota's flagship product in the field of hydrogen energy, and the Japan car industry has high hopes for it. Akio Toyoda, the head of Toyota, sees it as the starting point of Japan's new energy technology, proving that hydrogen energy is a viable way out. However, due to the cold in Japan's domestic market and the exposure of a series of problems, this undoubtedly adds uncertainty to its global promotion path.

Tesla CEO Elon · Musk has always been skeptical of hydrogen energy, believing that it is more efficient and economical to directly use electricity to drive cars. He pointed out that every kilogram of hydrogen produced consumes 55 kilowatt-hours of electricity, and that much electricity can make a 1.5-ton car travel 400 kilometers, while 1 kilogram of hydrogen can only make a 1.5-ton car travel 80 kilometers.

A hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is a type of vehicle that replaces traditional energy with hydrogen energy and uses a fuel cell system as a power source or main power source. Compared with traditional internal combustion engine vehicles, pure electric vehicles and diesel-electric hybrid vehicles, the biggest difference lies in its unique powertrain.

In 2023, a total of 166 hydrogen refueling stations will be put into operation in Japan

In December 2017, China took the lead in releasing the world's first national hydrogen energy strategy, the "Basic Strategy for Hydrogen Energy".

From 2019 to 2023, the cumulative number of hydrogen refueling stations in operation in Japan continues to grow. By the end of 2023, a total of 166 hydrogen refueling stations were in operation in Japan, one more than at the end of 2022.

Japan Japanese standard:

In 2030, the production of fuel cell cars will reach 800,000 units

In March 2019, Japan released the "Hydrogen Energy Utilization Schedule", which proposed that by 2025, the production of fuel cell cars in Japan should reach 200,000 units; By 2030, the production of fuel cell cars will reach 800,000 units, and the production of fuel cell buses will reach 1,200 units. Hydrogen refueling stations provide a dedicated place for fuel cell vehicles to refuel, and the development of fuel vehicles will drive the demand for hydrogen refueling stations. With the further expansion of the application of hydrogen energy in Japan's transportation field in the future, the scale of hydrogen refueling station construction and development in Japan will also expand.

In China, the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry is also gradually growing. The Chinese government has been vigorously promoting the development of clean energy vehicles, and hydrogen energy, as one of the clean energy sources, has also been supported and encouraged by the government. In recent years, China's hydrogen energy industry policy has been continuously improved, and the construction of hydrogen refueling stations has been accelerating, providing strong support for the promotion and development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

At the same time, China's automobile manufacturers are also actively deploying the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle market, and some well-known automobile companies have invested in the development and production of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to seize market opportunities. In terms of technology, China's hydrogen fuel cell vehicle companies are also constantly innovating and making breakthroughs, striving to improve vehicle performance and range, and provide consumers with more competitive products.

China's fuel cell vehicles have great growth potential in the future

According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, as of the end of August 2023, the number of fuel cell vehicles in China has exceeded 16,000. In the "Medium and Long-term Plan for the Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035)" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, it is clearly stated that by 2025, the number of fuel cell vehicles in China will reach about 50,000, and a number of hydrogen refueling stations will be deployed. According to this plan, the average annual compound growth rate of fuel cell vehicles in China in the past two years will reach about 77%, which can be seen that the growth potential of fuel cell vehicles in the future is great, creating sustainable development demand for the hydrogen refueling station industry.

Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, pointed out that China has established an industrial ecosystem covering the complete industrial chain of hydrogen energy manufacturing, storage, transportation and refueling. From 2020 to 2024, China's commercial vehicle fuel cell systems have made significant progress in terms of rated power, maximum efficiency, mass power density, etc., with high-power and high-efficiency systems emerging, with system life increased from 10,000 hours to 20,000 hours, and system costs dropped by about 50%. It is expected that the sales of fuel cell vehicles in China will be close to 10,000 this year, and the number of fuel cell vehicles in operation is expected to exceed 50,000 by 2025, and exceed 1 million by 2035.

According to a research report released by Great Wall Securities, the hydrogen energy market will gain more opportunities for expansion as the mainland successively introduces hydrogen energy-friendly policies. The technical level of upstream electrolyzers is constantly improving, and the competitiveness of electrolyzers in the international market is increasing, so it is recommended to pay attention to the current situation of the electrolyzer industry. The supply of hydrogen production in the midstream continues to increase, and the hydrogen production demonstration project continues to advance, so it is recommended to pay attention to the hydrogen production demonstration station enterprises. The downstream hydrogen fuel cell vehicle market has broad prospects, which is conducive to driving the application and development of the entire hydrogen energy industry chain, so it is recommended to pay attention to enterprises in the field of hydrogen vehicle applications.

Prospective Economist APP Information Group

For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the "Analysis Report on Market Prospect and Investment Strategic Planning of China's Hydrogen Refueling Station Industry" by Qianzhan Industry Research Institute

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