Entering the end of July, the wheat market, the performance of wheat prices "grinding the bottom" is more prominent, the market is long and short intertwined, bullish and bearish factories, the bottom of the market support is still there, however, the consumption is not good, in the short term, wheat prices or will maintain a low see-saw trend!
It is understood that at present, the wheat supply pattern is loose, on the one hand, the official wheat production data announced, an increase of more than 3.65 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 2.7%, which laid the foundation for the long-term supply of wheat; On the other hand, the rotation of grain reserves and local grain depots in the early stage has not yet ended, and the surplus inventory of old grain is high, and the scale of wheat imports has increased significantly during the year, and wheat imports in the first half of the year increased by 15.8% year-on-year, reaching 9.28 million tons!
Nowadays, the wheat supply pattern is relaxed, however, due to the end of the new wheat centralized listing cycle, the enthusiasm of grassroots farmers to subscribe to the market has weakened, especially in the recent past, North China and the Huanghuai region, affected by a wide range of precipitation weather, farmers have slowed down the pace of grain production, the difficulty of grain station procurement of grain sources, and the cost has also increased slightly, which has certain support for the spot market!
Superimposed, recently, the pace of wheat storage in the grain depot has slowed down, however, there is still the operation of wheat rotation in the grain storage in the producing area, which has policy support for the market!
Therefore, at present, the bottom support of the wheat market still exists, but the market is not good, especially the consumer side has a poor follow-up performance!
At present, the domestic flour purchase and sales are in the off-season, by the high temperature and humid environment, flour storage is difficult, the downstream market is mainly low inventory, flour purchase and sales are cold, enterprises maintain low inventory, the operating rate is relatively low, the demand for grain sources is weak, and the wheat supply prospect is loose, the mainstream milling enterprises are looking at the decline of the market, the milling enterprises are not willing to build warehouses in a centralized manner, and they are mainly based on just need to replenish goods!
Therefore, under the supply and demand game, the price of wheat is mainly based on grinding the bottom, from the analysis of institutional data, up to now, the average price of winter wheat producing areas in the country is 1.244 yuan / jin, the quotation of enterprises in the mainstream producing areas is stable, and the sporadic quotation is adjusted by 0.2 ~ 0.5 points / jin, of which the mainstream wheat price in Hebei is 1.215 ~ 1.25 yuan, and the mainstream price of wheat in Shandong is 1.23 ~ 1.27 yuan / jin!
Personally, I believe that by the phased supply and demand game, the market is weak and stable or will continue, the domestic mainstream producing areas, wheat quotations are stable and small, and the market fundamentals are slightly weak!
Just now, domestic oil prices stopped rising, gasoline and diesel prices ushered in the second half of the first decline in the performance, 92/95 gasoline and 0 diesel quotations fell 0.11 ~ 0.13 yuan, the pressure on residential vehicles was slightly reduced, and oil prices remained at a high level during the year!
However, according to the oil price adjustment mechanism, a new round of pricing cycle opened, this round of oil prices still have the support of the fall, domestic oil prices or will "sit on the slide", in the second half of the year, oil prices are expected to fall significantly!
As we all know, the domestic oil price is adjusted in 10 working days, and the oil price adjustment is less than 50 yuan, which will be stranded and landed, and the rise and fall will be included in the next adjustment, and the oil price adjustment will reach 50 yuan / ton, and the price adjustment will be adjusted accordingly!
In this round of the cycle (July 26 ~ August 8), July 28, affected by the weekend, oil prices on the first working day of July 26, referring to the crude oil changes on July 25, the first working day of this cycle, the rate of change of crude oil -2.32%, gasoline and diesel prices fell by 80 yuan, exceeding the stranded line of 30 yuan / ton, the oil price entered the downward adjustment expectations, equivalent to the price of 92/95 gasoline down by about 0.07 yuan!
However, this round of oil price adjustment is still at the beginning, the decline in oil prices still has the basis for further expansion, in particular, with reference to the changes in crude oil on July 26, the price of oil and cloth oil both fell sharply, the 16th oil price adjustment in the year, the second working day, the decline in the rate of change of crude oil or will increase significantly, gasoline and diesel prices are expected to fall or will exceed 100 yuan / ton!
According to institutional analysis, in terms of crude oil, recently, international oil prices have fluctuated downward, and the market fundamentals are bearish, although the strong performance of the United States economy and the decline in United States crude oil inventories have some support for the market! However, due to the strength of the dollar index and the slowdown in global economic growth, the market's concerns about the slowdown in the world's second largest economy have strengthened, and concerns about weak energy demand have risen, superimposed, and geopolitical tensions have improved, which has exacerbated the risk of weakening crude oil!
If, in this cycle, crude oil prices fall further, I personally believe that in this cycle, the decline in domestic oil prices may be further expanded, and the final price adjustment time is 24 o'clock on August 8, the author will continue to pay attention to the development of the market, and update the latest oil price adjustment news daily!
Attached: On July 29, the price of 92/95 gasoline at gas stations in various provinces and cities across the country
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