Suddenly announced a rate hike! On September 20th, the three major news in the early hours of this morning hit (9.20)!
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The Central Bank of Russia suddenly made a big move, suddenly announcing a rate hike: 100 basis points to 19.00%. This is the second time the central bank of Russia has raised interest rates this year, following a 200 basis point hike in July this year.
To be honest, I was a little confused, because I had assumed that Russia would not raise interest rates, as the market expected, and the reason for Russia's rate hike is strong: the current inflationary pressure is still high.
From a data perspective, it is predicted that by the end of the year, the annual inflation rate in Russia may exceed the range of 6.5-7.0% previously projected in July.
This is why when the Fed announced a rate cut late at night, the Russia market saw a volatile decline, while at the same time, our big A shares bucked the trend and rose in volume.
This is mainly due to the appreciation of RMB assets after the Fed cut interest rates, which led to a sharp rise in the A-share market. Historical rate-cutting cycles have shown that Fed rate cuts typically narrow interest rate differentials between China and the United States, while the reversal of the JPY carry trade has also contributed to the appreciation of the RMB.
It is expected that the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar will fluctuate in the range of 7 to 7.2 for most of the year, and it is also possible to break through the "7" mark by the end of 2024 or early 2025. In this context, A-shares may usher in a wave of bull market in the context of interest rate cuts in the United States and interest rate hikes in Russia!
1. Half a month after the suspension of trading, the plan for the merger of China Shipbuilding and China Heavy Industry was announced. Investors were given two options: either accept a 20% discount in cash, or exchange 7.49 shares of China Heavy Industries for 1 share of China Shipbuilding.
Truth be told, this plan is not very friendly to shareholders on both sides. At the price before the suspension, China Heavy Industries' shareholders lost 6.8% as soon as they came up. No wonder there were big funds rushing to run on the day of the suspension, maybe I heard the wind in advance!
Second, as soon as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, real estate stocks collectively rose sharply.
For the real estate market, the LPR with a maturity of more than 5 years is likely to be further reduced, which means that the cost of buying a house for ordinary people may fall. Speaking of the interest rate of the existing mortgage, indirectly, the Fed's interest rate cut may also lead to a further reduction in the interest rate of the existing mortgage.
3. A-shares stepped back to 2,700 points intraday and walked out of the shock "upward attack".
Lao Mei cut interest rates by 50 basis points this time, which is not small, and according to the published dot plot, there may be 50 basis points of room for interest rate cuts later this year, so the A-share market has risen sharply.
Although it fell below 2700 points intraday, the 2635 points below are the "iron bottom", which is the last line of defense. May I ask you: will it break or will the Jedi fight back?