preface
In recent years, United States seems to have been playing up the China threat theory, believing that China's rise will not be a peaceful process, and that there will inevitably be a fierce conflict with United States during this period, but Harvard professor Joseph believes that there is not "a war that must be" between China and the United States.
In Professor Joseph's view, United States still has five major advantages over China, and if China tries to challenge the international order, United States will be in an undefeated position, and the hawkish China threat theory is completely sensational.
So, what are the advantages of United States in Joseph's eyes? Are these views really true?
Information source: All the content stated in this article is reproduced by reliable information sources, please watch it rationally at the end of the article
The invincibility of United States, the father of "soft power".
In recent years, with the rapid growth of China's economic strength and the continuous expansion of its international influence, countless United States politicians have begun to advocate that the tragedy of great power politics cannot be avoided between China and the United States, believing that even if the two countries avoid direct war, they will fall into the Cold War pattern like the United States and the Soviet Union.
The concept of the "Thucydides Trap" is at the heart of the "China threat" view, which argues that the rise of an emerging power is inevitably accompanied by a challenge to the status of an established power, and that if the established power wants to protect its own interests, it must spare no effort to contain and suppress the emerging power.
At a time when the "zero-sum game" is prevalent, the vast majority of United States politicians regard the Thucydides trap as an "iron law" of international relations, and they trumpeting that China is challenging the United States-led international order and may replace United States global leadership in the future.
However, not all United States scholars agree with the China threat theory, and Joseph ·, dean of the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, is one of the most well-known diplomats and the famous "father of soft power".
Professor Joseph pointed out that China is currently hoping to make more favorable policy adjustments within the framework of the existing international order, rather than directly challenging the international order like Hitler or trying to change the political system of United States like Stalin.
In addition to this more rational and objective analytical perspective, the biggest difference between Professor Joseph and the "China threat theory" view is that he believes that China's rise will pose challenges to United States, but it will not allow China to replace United States' global leadership.
In Joseph · Nye's view, United States will remain the most powerful country in the world in the future, but it will not be able to continue the unipolar leadership model of the past, but will become the "leading big brother" of a "polycentric world" that must cooperate with China and Europe in many fields.
There is some truth to Joseph's thinking, and China's efforts to increase its influence in the international order, rather than trying to "kick the table" like Germany before World War I, prove that China is still trying to find a path to peaceful rise.
Of course, the fact that China and the United States are trying to avoid a direct war does not mean that the two sides can be in a state of peaceful diplomacy, and it is still possible for the two sides to form a new Cold War pattern like the United States and the Soviet Union.
However, in the face of these problems, Professor Joseph believes that as long as China and the United States can maintain the avoidance of war and United States their superiority in the five areas, they will ensure that they are in an advantageous position in the long-term competition.
Five "undefeated advantages" of the United States
In Joseph's view, United States has an extremely superior geographical advantage over China, United States as a New World country, the east and west coasts are surrounded by the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean respectively, and the two neighbors in the north and south do not have the ability to pose a substantial threat to United States.
United States's unique geographical pattern in geography allows it not to worry too much about domestic security, can focus more on global strategy, and unlike United Kingdom's island policy, United States' military bases around the world allow it to better balance the "balanced development" of other countries.
Although China can easily resist the attack of United States, its many land neighbors are also destined to prevent its unity or reunification in the Eurasian continent by the "-stirring stick" of United States in the process of development, just like the European continent in the past.
In addition, United States has vast plains and fertile land, providing unique conditions for agricultural development, and a rich inland waterway system facilitates domestic transportation and trade, and also promotes the prosperity of the United States economy.
Second, United States' breakthroughs in shale oil and gas technology in recent years have made it the world's largest oil and gas producer, which not only guarantees United States' energy security, but also enhances United States' influence in the international energy market.
By contrast, China's "natural deficiencies" in energy are well known, and the mainland's dependence on external energy supplies dooms China's foreign policy to serious limitations.
The third advantage of United States is its important influence in the global financial structure, relying on the US dollar, the world's main reserve currency and international trade settlement currency, United States has a unique economic advantage in the financial market.
As the world's financial center, New York has gathered a large amount of international capital, the world's largest, deepest and most liquid capital market, and countless international financial institutions have also gathered here, allowing United States to firmly control the lifeblood of the global financial system.
What is somewhat strange is that in Professor Joseph's view, the United States demographics are also an important strength, United States although it has long since become a developed country, it is still demographically young and diverse.
In 2023, for example, the number of newborns in United States will still be as high as 3.59 million after a cliff-like decline, and although it is just over one-third of China's newborns, the total fertility rate is 50% higher than that of China.
Although the total fertility rate of United States 1.6 is still far from the equilibrium point of 2.1, there are still a large number of international talents in the labor market who have entered the United States through immigration policies, and the arrival of these new blood has kept United States strong economic vitality among many developed countries.
Finally, as the world leader in the last century, United States not only has the world's top universities and research institutions, but also brings together the world's top technology companies and entrepreneurs, which provide a strong talent attraction for the United States.
Relying on their strong "soft power", the total population of United States is far less than that of China, but they can choose the talents they need from the world's 7 billion people, and let many overseas talents stay in United States after choosing to study at United States universities.
Economic cooperation that "fights but does not break".
Judging from the above five comparisons, Joseph's view that there is no life-and-death threat between China and the United States does have a certain degree of legitimacy, and he has repeatedly said that the United States "China threat theory" is "feeding each other" between the hawks of the two countries.
In two different countries and cultural backgrounds, the rhetoric of China and the United States will be misunderstood, and some "leading" remarks may be "misunderstood" by people with ulterior motives, causing panic among the people on the other side who want to dominate the world.
Therefore, Joseph called on United States policymakers to remain calm and rational and avoid viewing China as an enemy or threat, suggesting that United States should adopt a more flexible and pragmatic China policy, seeking cooperation in competition and consensus in differences.
In Joseph's analysis, cooperation between China and the United States is necessary, but economic integration between the two countries cannot completely eliminate the political conflict between the two countries, and some countries' "win-win" economic policies may cause serious political problems at home.
As a result, Joseph favors the United States government's policy of moderate decoupling or subsidizing domestic companies in areas related to national security, but he firmly opposes the United States government's comprehensive decoupling policy, arguing that it will increase tensions between the two countries.
epilogue
Professor Joseph's views may be inadequate, but he provides a more balanced and in-depth perspective for us to understand Sino-US relations, and also warns us that when analyzing international relations, we should not be misled by short-term phenomena or one-sided views, and we must look at problems from a long-term and overall perspective.
United States their advantage over China may not be as "undefeated" as Joseph said, but they do still have strong development potential, and we should also give priority to making more "cards" in our hands through positive interactions such as diplomacy and cooperation.
bibliography
Global Times - "Interview with Joseph ·, the proposer of "soft power": "There must be a war between the United States and China" is not the mainstream view of United States"
https://world.huanqiu.com/article/9CaKrnKnBeT
Beijing News - "Joseph · Nye: China and the United States need a more refined strategy than during the Cold War to solve common problems"
https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1780527081718210148&wfr=spider&for=pc