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NBA Survivor Bias (1): Disappearing All-Stars, helpless to spend

author:Ijam

In the NBA, what an honor to be recognized by fans as an All-Star starter! The NBA superstars whose careers have shone brightly are all-star regulars. And those with medium qualifications can occasionally be selected through their own efforts. The all-star bench position is very competitive, and to be selected as an All-Star is not only to be recognized by the coaches, but sometimes luck is also very important. Today, let's take a look at the rise and fall of all-Star players in the NBA!

首先‬,我先来‬看看这些长期霸占全明星首发的球员是从什么时候开始成为全明星的? 他们又‬是‬替代了哪些‬曾经的巨星成为现在的全明星的‬?

NBA Survivor Bias (1): Disappearing All-Stars, helpless to spend

Let's start with the most familiar Michael Jordan! It can be said that as long as Jordan does not retire, the position of NBA All-Star Eastern Conference starting shooting guard is absolutely impossible. It can be seen how huge Jordan's influence in the NBA is! After Michael Jordan, kobe Bryant was the only one who could enjoy this treatment late in his NBA career. Although the Lakers' record at that time was terrible!

NBA Survivor Bias (1): Disappearing All-Stars, helpless to spend

With the exception of popular and powerful superstars like Jordan and Kobe Bryant, other NBA players aren't so lucky. They may have been in full swing for a while, but they have withdrawn from the NBA All-Star stage due to various reasons such as age, injury or physical illness. This gives players who are not as physically good a chance to become survivors and beneficiaries of the NBA All-Star through their own efforts.

NBA Survivor Bias (1): Disappearing All-Stars, helpless to spend

During World War II, the U.S. military studied the firing of aircraft returning from battle. It was found that the most bulleted places in the aircraft were the wings and fuselage, so it was decided to strengthen the protection measures for the wings and fuselage of the aircraft. 哥‬伦比亚大学的沃德教授提出了完全相反的观点,他认为应该加强机尾部分的防护。 The reason is that the wings and fuselage can withstand the blow, and if they are shot, they can return safely. This is where the survivor bias theory comes from. 在NBA,幸存者偏差指的是,在某个位置上超级巨星的缺席或者受伤等原因,而使得其他明星‬球员幸运地‬获得‬或‬暂时‬性‬占据‬‬了NBA全明星‬‬的‬某个‬位置。

NBA Survivor Bias (1): Disappearing All-Stars, helpless to spend

In the NBA, there are countless examples of such survivor bias. Let's first take a look at the list of the 1998 NBA East-West All-Star starting lineup:

NBA Survivor Bias (1): Disappearing All-Stars, helpless to spend

From the east, Michael Jordan's position stands still. Hardaway and Hill are the NBA's favorite Jordan successors. Kemp, who has just moved from supersonic to the Cavaliers, has secured the position of starting big forward in the East. Due to the injury of one of the four centers, Ewing, Mutombo was fortunate enough to get the All-Star starting position. That year, he was a survivor in the NBA Eastern Conference All-Star starting center position. Also benefiting is bench forward Rick Schmitz of the Indiana Pacers. Ewing's physical decline after returning from injury, coupled with age, the position of the eastern conference starting center began to change from time to time every year. Those replaced became beneficiaries of survivor bias.

NBA Survivor Bias (1): Disappearing All-Stars, helpless to spend

Let's look at the West again, Karl Malone just lost to Jordan in the Finals, but he's as steady as Tarzan in the Western Conference's big forward position. Although his old partner Rainman Kemp has just moved to the Cavaliers, Gary Payton has become the starting point guard of the West with his own strength and years of accumulated popularity. Since the Sharks traveled west to the Lakers, the NBA Western Conference starting center position has been transformed from a duo of Big Dream and Admiral to a solo dance by Shaq O'Neal. The most interesting thing here is Bryant, with his high popularity and league popularity, he has the honor of becoming the youngest All-Star starter in NBA history in the second year of the league. Kevin Garnett, who is also a high school student, spent three years.

NBA Survivor Bias (1): Disappearing All-Stars, helpless to spend

After Jordan retired in 1998, the NBA was stuck in a quagmire of suspension. The 1999 shrinking season of the NBA All-Star Game was cancelled. The 2000 All-Star Weekend sounded the clarion call of change. Tim Duncan, who was an All-Star bench in 1998, defeated Carl Malone with the championship to take the position of starting big forward in the West. Jason Kidd replaced Payton as the Starting Point Guard for the Western Conference with his outstanding performance. Bryant and O'Neal continued to sit firmly in the Western Conference All-Star starting position, while their former Lakers teammate Eddie Jones moved to Charlotte Hornets in the East and served as the Starting Quarterback in the East.

NBA Survivor Bias (1): Disappearing All-Stars, helpless to spend

This year, the survivor bias eliminated in the West was Van Axel (Lakers), Richmond (Kings) and Vin-Baker (Supersonic). In its place were Finley (Mavericks), Weber (Kings), and Rashid Wallace (trailblazers). The addition of Weber and Wallace ushered in the NBA's four-big forward era.

NBA Survivor Bias (1): Disappearing All-Stars, helpless to spend

Let's look at the East again, because Penny Hardaway has gone far away from the West, and Iverson has naturally become the starting point guard of the Eastern Conference All-Stars with his amazing performance. Due to injuries, The love affair between Anfenni Hardaway and the NBA All-Star has since been cut in two.

NBA Survivor Bias (1): Disappearing All-Stars, helpless to spend

On the centre side, as mentioned above, Mutombo's starting center was taken away by Mourning, who performed better in the regular season, and he had to retire to the position of substitute center. Hill is still a minor striker, but the worst part is the big forward position, and due to Sean Kemp's self-depravity, another starting striker position has been replaced by the popular Vince Carter. Rainman Camp has since fallen out of the all-Star altar.

NBA Survivor Bias (1): Disappearing All-Stars, helpless to spend

The Eastern Conference All-Star bench changed a lot that year: 5-time All-Star player Tim Hardaway of the Heat withdrew from the All-Star stage. The survivor bias eliminated in the East that year was Rick Schmitz (Pacers), Antoine Walker (Celtic), Steve Smith (Hawks), Jason Williams (Nets) and Glenn Rice (Lakers). Instead are Starkhouse (Pistons), Dale Davis (Pacers), Big Dog Robinson (Bucks), Ray Allen (Bucks) and Allen Houston (Knicks). The next two became the spokespeople for the NBA's sharpshooters of this period.

NBA Survivor Bias (1): Disappearing All-Stars, helpless to spend

On NBA All-Star Weekend in 2001, East-West All-Star starters were as tightly controlled by several bigwigs as they were last year. The only thing that has changed is that Tracy McGrady has replaced Eddie Jones as the starting guard in the East. The four quarterbacks made their debut at the All-Star Game as the team's starting point. In the West, due to the Kings' excellent performance in the regular season, Chris Webb replaced Garnett as the starting big forward in the West, and Garnett regretted to be a substitute.

NBA Survivor Bias (1): Disappearing All-Stars, helpless to spend

After this All-Star, Grant Hill gradually withdrew from the All-Star stage due to multiple serious injuries, and his record of starting an All-Star for seven consecutive years from the rookie game came to an abrupt end. What a pity! Alonzo Monin was forced to leave the arena to seek treatment due to kidney disease. Antonio Davis (Raptors) and Mason (Heat) were lucky enough to replace Morningn and Hill as Eastern Conference All-Star starts. Due to O'Neal's injury, the Kings' Divac top was also fortunate to play for O'Neal as the starting center in the West.

NBA Survivor Bias (1): Disappearing All-Stars, helpless to spend

Eastern Conference bench: Reggie Miller, who was still playing against the Lakers in the 2000 Finals, regrettably withdrew from the All-Star game. The eliminated survivor bias is Eddie-Jones (Hornets) and Dale Davis (Pacers). Replaced by Marbury (Nets) and Spreeville (Knicks).

NBA Survivor Bias (1): Disappearing All-Stars, helpless to spend

西部替补阵容方面:约翰-斯托克顿正式‬退出了全明星的舞台。 In its place was the Nuggets' Antonio McDies.

NBA Survivor Bias (1): Disappearing All-Stars, helpless to spend

2002 was Michael Jordan's second comeback, and the NBA Eastern Conference All-Star shooting guard's starting position was no doubt. Iverson and Vince Carter's starting positions remained unmoved, but because of his injury, Carter did not appear on the All-Star game. His starting starter was Kidd, who had just moved from the Suns to the Nets. After four years, Anthony Walker returned to the All-Star stage, this time squeezing out Maddy's All-Star starter. It can also be regarded as one of the highlight moments of his life! Also regaining the starting spot is The Philadelphia 76ers' Mutombo. Alonzo Mourning, who has returned from treatment, has also squeezed into the list of substitute centers in the East.

NBA Survivor Bias (1): Disappearing All-Stars, helpless to spend

The Eastern Conference bench has changed dramatically: The eliminated survivor bias is Stuckhouse (Pistons), Antonio Davis (Raptors), Mason (Heat), Big Dog Robinson (Bucks), Marbury (Nets), Allen Houston (Knicks) and Spreeville (Knicks). Instead are O'Neill Jr. (Pacers), Paul Pierce (Celtic), Raheem (Eagle) and Bearded Baron Davis (Hornets)!

NBA Survivor Bias (1): Disappearing All-Stars, helpless to spend

In the Western Conference All-Star starters, O'Neal, Bryant and Duncan are as steady as Tarzan. Kevin Garnett finally snatched the All-Star starter back from Webber. But with O'Neal injured again, Chris Webb curved to the All-Star starter position. As Kidd moved from the Suns to the Eastern Nets, the competition for Western Conference All-Star starting guards was fierce. In the end, the arrogant Steve Francis won the award for his brilliant performance. The veteran Gary Payton went on to serve as a Western Conference All-Star guard.

NBA Survivor Bias (1): Disappearing All-Stars, helpless to spend

Compared with the East, the Western bench has also changed a lot: Carl Malone is out of the team due to injury, and David Robinson officially withdraws from the All-Star stage. The eliminated survivor biases are Divac (Kings), McDace (Nuggets), Rashid Wallace (Trail Blazers) and Michael Finley (Mavericks). Instead were Stojakovic (Kings), Szebiak (Timberwolves) and Brand (Clippers). Dirk Nowitzki (Mavericks) and Steve Nash (Mavericks) also officially made their NBA All-Stars on the stage that year. (To be continued)

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