At the societal level, the stock market hasn't been so hot for a long time. In the past two days, according to a number of media reports, the vegetable market aunt and the courier brother have also begun to talk about stocks, and the number of brokerage accounts has surged, and even the Shanghai Stock Exchange has caused system failures due to hot transactions. All signs show that A-shares have entered a bull market frenzy in just a few days. There is still controversy in the market about whether A-shares have entered a bull market. But the trading volume will not deceive people, and the trading volume of more than one trillion yuan for three consecutive days proves that investors have entered the stock market with "real guns".
The dormant account is awakened
A reporter from Beijing Youth Daily saw in a number of WeChat communities that some shareholders said that they had opened accounts that had been sleeping for many years and were ready to inject funds into a big job. Some shareholders also said that they are still waiting and seeing, but they have been itching to make money. According to financial media reports, in the past two days, I heard the aunts start talking about stocks in the vegetable market, and the courier brother also opened the stock trading software from time to time. The number of people opening accounts in the business department of securities companies has also surged. According to the staff of the Hujialou business department of a securities company, the number of shareholders who came to open an account in the past two days has increased significantly, and no one has come to open an account in the previous day, and there are no more than a dozen new shareholders who have come to open an account in the past two days, and more have opened the gem and margin financing and securities lending business, and many shareholders feel that their confidence has been restored and they are ready to increase leverage.
According to the staff of the brokerage, the biggest difference in this round is that the number of online active account openings has increased significantly, and most young shareholders have chosen to open accounts through the Internet. In addition, in addition to the strong willingness of shareholders to enter the market, institutional investors have shown a stronger willingness, many institutions have expressed their willingness to increase their positions in the past two days, and the transaction execution applications of the two financial transactions have increased significantly.
It is worth mentioning that the system failure caused by the large-scale trading of shares that A-share shareholders have not seen for many years has reappeared. On the morning of September 27, A-shares opened sharply higher across the board. However, many investors reported that after the opening of the market, the stock trading system of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was once unable to sell or cancel orders. A brokerage agency confirmed, that is, "after the company's technical monitoring, it was found that there is a delay in the current declaration." There is feedback from all brokerages, which is a common problem in the industry." Until the end of morning trading, the Shanghai Stock Exchange responded that after the opening of today's market, there was an anomaly of slow transaction confirmation in the stock auction transaction. The Shanghai Stock Exchange has paid attention to the relevant situation at the first time and is investigating the relevant reasons. At present, the market has gradually returned to normal. Many shareholders said in the stock bar: "See you for a long time, the exchange has been bought by shareholders." ”
The power of the policy combination is gradually emerging
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced on September 27 that it has decided to reduce the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points (excluding financial institutions that have implemented a 5% reserve requirement ratio) from September 27. After this reduction, the weighted average reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions is about 6.6%. This also means that one of the favorable policies announced by the central bank at the press conference of the State Council Information Office on September 24 has landed.
On September 26, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and plan the next step of economic work. This Politburo meeting echoed the press conference of the State Council Information Office attended by the person in charge of the "One Bank, One Bureau and One Meeting" on September 24, which fully demonstrated the central government's firm attitude towards stable growth and significantly boosted market expectations. The meeting emphasized that efforts should be made to boost the capital market, vigorously guide medium and long-term funds to enter the market, and open up the blocking points for social security, insurance, wealth management and other funds to enter the market. It is necessary to support the mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, steadily promote the reform of public funds, and study and introduce policies and measures to protect small and medium-sized investors.
Soochow Securities Research Report believes that in recent days, a series of monetary and fiscal policy combinations have been punched, demonstrating the determination of the top management to take care of the economy, effectively improving the market's expectations for medium and long-term fundamentals, and the stock market will usher in a positive allocation window.
A big leap forward in liquidity
In the past few days, a package of heavy policies covering currency, real estate and capital markets has formed a combination of punches to promote the stock market to rise. Among them, the strength of the two new monetary policy tools exceeded expectations, and the first phase of 800 billion yuan was earmarked for the stock market, which became the biggest highlight of the monetary easing policy. Interviewees have pointed out that the new policy tools will quench the thirst for funds in A-shares.
At a press conference held by the Information Office of the State Council on the morning of September 24, Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, said that the first tool is the swap facility of securities, funds and insurance companies, which supports eligible securities, funds and insurance companies to exchange treasury bonds, central bank bills and other highly liquid assets from the central bank by using assets such as bonds, stock ETFs, and CSI 300 constituent stocks held in their hands as collateral. Pan Gongsheng stressed that the funds obtained through this tool can only be used to invest in the stock market. "We plan to swap the convenience of the first phase of the operation scale of 500 billion yuan, and the scale can be expanded in the future according to the situation. As long as this thing is done well, the first phase of 500 billion yuan, another 500 billion yuan, and even a third 500 billion yuan. Pan Gongsheng said.
The second tool is stock repurchase and refinancing to guide commercial banks to provide loans to listed companies and major shareholders for repurchasing and increasing their holdings of listed companies' shares. Pan Gongsheng introduced that the central bank will issue reloans to commercial banks, and the proportion of financial support provided is 100%, the relending interest rate is 1.75%, and the interest rate of loans issued by commercial banks to customers is about 2.25%. "The initial quota is 300 billion yuan, and if this tool is used well, it can come to another 300 billion yuan, and even a third 300 billion yuan." This is interpreted by the market as "increase in holdings" and "repo loans". Pan Gongsheng's statement was interpreted by some market participants as the central bank will provide "unlimited bullets" for the stock market, clarifying the policy base of A-shares.
Wang Ying, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley China, said in her latest commentary that the People's Bank of China's larger-than-expected policy support measures will help improve investor sentiment and liquidity, and drive a positive response in both onshore and offshore markets in the short term. The size and long-term sustainability of the rebound will depend on the macroeconomic recovery and the bottoming out of corporate earnings growth.
"The policy released by the central bank on the 24th exceeded market expectations, and it can be said that this is the most comprehensive easing policy since 2015. While individual measures did not exceed expectations, the overall easing was greater than we had predicted, and the comprehensive package was clearly aimed at restoring market confidence. Zhu Haibin, chief economist and head of economic research for Greater China at JPMorgan Chase, said.
Can the market be sustainable?
After four consecutive days of sharp gains, some of the shareholders who stuck to it have recovered significantly. The new investors are looking forward to the market after the holiday. Shareholder "sweeping monk" said that he hoped that the rise of A-shares this time would bring a long-term slow bull market, rather than a sharp rise and fall.
According to a research report released by CICC a few days ago, the current valuation of the A-share market is already in a relatively extreme position, and the forward valuation of the CSI 300 Index is near one standard deviation of the historical bottom, which has obvious investment attractiveness both horizontally and vertically. In terms of trading and behavior, there are also historical characteristics of the bottom, and the turnover rate of A-shares calculated by free float market value in the early stage is at the historical bottom level of about 1.5% (the turnover rate is about 1%-2% during the historical bottom period). In this context, the emergence of positive policy signals is expected to boost investor sentiment, the stock market may have short-term twists and turns after the rally, but the rebound is expected to continue, and the market trend stabilization also needs to pay attention to the subsequent changes in the fundamentals of listed companies.
Some market observers have pointed out that a number of ETFs with the CSI 300 Index as the underlying index have seen continuous premiums in intraday and late trading in recent days, which is more obvious than other broad-based and industry-themed indices. It shows that investors are optimistic about the subsequent performance of the market under the continuous introduction of unexpected policies, and are following the market trend through instrumentalized products. Moreover, whether it is a large or small CSI 300 ETF, there is a premium, and it may be that institutional investors with a large amount of funds are more likely to grab funds. It is expected that the probability of holding the base for the holiday is relatively large.
According to a survey released by the private placement network a few days ago, 65.82% of the private placement recommended heavy or full holdings for the holiday, they believe that the market has shown the bottom of the prototype, in the policy is good, the sentiment is improved, the market rebound will not end soon. For the post-holiday market? The survey results show that nearly seventy percent of private equity is optimistic, believing that driven by favorable policies, the probability of the market stabilizing at a low level and gradually rebounding is relatively high.
Periphery, Chinese assets triggered a "rush to raise funds". The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index soared more than 10% intraday, hitting a new high since May. A50 futures once rose more than 3%. The RMB exchange rate rose above the "7" mark and rose more than 500 points intraday. On the evening of September 26, CITIC Securities Research released an article with only one word in the title of the company's official account: "Dry".
The GEM set a record for single-day gains
On September 27, as of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.89%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 6.71%, and the ChiNext Index rose 10%. The ChiNext index rose by the largest single-day increase in history, significantly exceeding the increase of 7.16% on September 16, 2015. The GEM refers to the full-day turnover of 439.5 billion yuan, a record amount of turnover. The Shenzhen Component Index has a full-day turnover of nearly one trillion yuan. The weighted stocks of the Growth Enterprise Market collectively rose sharply, Oriental Fortune rose by the limit, and CATL rose by more than 10%. More than 5,200 stocks rose in the whole market, and more than 100 stocks rose to the limit. The Shanghai Composite Index is up 12.75% for the week, surpassing the 11.29% gain in the week of May 12, 2006, and becoming the fourth largest weekly gain since 1999.
On the disk, big financial and financial technology stocks continued to rise sharply, and many stocks such as CITIC Securities, Tianfeng Securities, Yinzhijie, and ISHARES Information rose to the limit. Lithium batteries, photovoltaics and other track stocks rebounded, leading technology, Jinyang shares, King Kong photovoltaic, Follett and other daily limits. Liquor stocks maintained a strong limit, such as Shede Liquor, Gujing Gongjiu, Jiugui Liquor, and Wuliangye. Real estate stocks fluctuated higher, with Gemdale Group, Sunshine Shares, Vanke A, Financial Street, etc. On the whole, energy metals, liquor, photovoltaics, securities and other sectors rose first, while a few sectors such as banks fell.
Text/Beijing Youth Daily reporter Zhu Kaiyun
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