United States miscalculated again? I wanted to support India to balance China, but I didn't want to accelerate my own decline.
The United States wants to build a "second China"
United States has long proposed the "Asia-Pacific Strategy", but by the Trump era, it was changed to the "Indo-Pacific Strategy", and the main reason for this shift was India's accession.
During the struggle for hegemony between the United States and the Soviet Union, India was the "fragrant bread" that both the United States and the Soviet Union wanted to compete for. At that time, the United States did not rob the Soviet Union, allowing India to lean towards the Soviet Union, and it was not until after the collapse of the Soviet Union that US-Indian relations gradually developed.
India has a vast territory and a large population, and was once one of the world's four major ancient civilizations, and in the eyes of United States and India, they have the same innate conditions as China, which gives United States the idea of "supporting India to become the next China".
What does India think?
In 1943, Nehru said that "India cannot play a second-rate role in the world, either be a great power with a voice or disappear."
It was also from this time that the "dream of a great power" took root in India, and successive prime ministers of India went to the "dream of a great power", and everyone hoped to build India into a leading power.
However, not all dreams will come true, and India has not been able to reach the position of a "world power" after decades of development. Just when India was worried, the United States appeared.
United States and India went through ups and downs, and finally they were in the same boat, and India became the "chess pieces" of the United States, specially used to balance the mainland. United States also deliberately changed the "Asia-Pacific Strategy" to the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" just because of India's accession.
Originally, United States and India were full of confidence, and always felt that they would be able to balance China's development when they joined forces, but in recent years, United States have found that things are not developing as they wanted, and United States support India accelerated their own decline, why is this?
India's "defects"
United States' support for India is broadly divided into three major areas: economic, military, and science and technology.
Many well-known companies in United States have set up factories in India, such as Apple, Google and so on. In order to help India achieve "India manufacturing", United States also led well-known chip manufacturers to build factories in India and develop. In 2023, Micron Technology, which United States, announced that it would build a semiconductor assembly and test factory in India.
On the military front, India has joined the "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between the United States, Japan, India and Australia" led by United States. United States also sells weapons to India. For example, in 2018, India became the first "non-NATO" partner to receive advanced drone technology from the United States, and also obtained the "Strategic Trade Authorization Category 1" status with the right to purchase dual-use technology from the United States.
India reciprocated, followed United States's restrictions on mainland investment, technology and enterprises, and expressed to United States with actions that it would "decouple from China."
In addition, India has also created border conflicts between China and India, such as the "Galwan Conflict" in 2020.
The conflict has cooled Sino-Indian relations, but it has made the United States and India more "united", and United States support has allowed India to dispel concerns about whether United States is reliable in the Sino-Indian conflict. Relations between the United States and India have reached a new level, and United States has also held military exercises with India.
However, no matter how much the United States does to India, it is of little use, it just drags down its own development, why?
Today's India has the title of "foreign cemeteries", and the money earned in India must stay in India, which is not alarmist.
India there is a set of "laws and regulations" for foreign-funded enterprises, and they can suppress and punish foreign companies on trumped-up charges, such as Xiaomi in the mainland, Google in United States, and well-known companies such as Amazon and Nokia have all been subjected to India's "black hands", and Google and other companies have been issued a "sky-high fine" of 1 billion.
In the World Bank's Doing Business report, India was rated as one of the "hardest countries in the world to do business", with many foreign investors entering the market quickly and exiting quickly.
In addition to India's poor business environment, India's infrastructure is also hard, Japan has not completed the high-speed railway that has been built in India for more than 6 years, and this high-speed railway is only 508 kilometers, according to The Paper report the year before, Japan believes that they have fallen into India's trap.
India's land is not all state-owned, some is private land, railways, factories or other infrastructure construction on private land, there will inevitably be a bunch of rip-offs, which is also one of the reasons for the headache for foreign companies.
The last point is that the education level of India is generally not high due to the caste system and other reasons, and high-tech talents are extremely rare, and most of these people work and live overseas, and India is scarce in domestic talents. Many Indians can only do simple, repetitive work, and cannot help India realize its "great power dream".
To exaggerate, United States tried his best to help India matchmaking and attract investment, but in exchange for India was called a "foreign-funded cemetery". India has not solved a bunch of domestic problems, how to retain foreign investment?
India's calculations
But what pains United States the most is not India's domestic development, but India's diplomatic choices.
In the last century, India traveled between the United States and the Soviet Union with the "Non-Aligned Movement" and also gained a firm foothold in the international community. In the new era, India and United States have gradually become closer, but India and Russia are also very good.
In 2022, when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, United States repeatedly asked for India sanctions Russia, but India was always unwilling and still maintained friendly trade and other relations with Russia.
This year, Modi visited Russia and warmly embraced Putin, which also caused concern for United States.
In addition, India and Iran, an "anti-American power", also maintain good diplomatic relations. In mid-May this year, India and Yinlang signed an agreement on the operation of Chabahar Port, and Iran handed over Chabahar Port to India for development and operation, and the agreement is valid for 10 years.
With the Chabahar port, India can bypass Pakistan and directly enter Central Asia, and can also compete with the mainland's "One Belt, One Road", which is a great joy for India.
But for United States, this is not a happy event. Russia and Iran both have big contradictions with United States, and judging from the current situation, Russia and Iran are about to unite against United States, and for United States, Iran and Russia are their enemies.
India does business with the enemy, how can the United States endure? But does United States have a choice?
Judging from the current situation, India is still the "best choice" for United States in the Indo-Pacific region, but India does not want to be bound by the obligations of "US allies".
India is sober, they can enjoy the benefits, but they will not take big risks.
In short, if it conforms to India's strategic requirements and interests, India does not mind following United States' policy, but once United States' policy runs counter to India's interests, India will leave immediately. For example, in 2023, India will openly refuse to join the "NATO plus five" model and refuse to become a real "ally" of United States.
United States has used resources and money to support a "disobedient" "ally", and this "ally" also has the dream of a superpower, and United States may have cultivated an adversary for them in the future.
Resources:
[1] The Observer, "Countering Gwadar Port", India Signs a 10-Year Chabahar Port Operation Agreement with Iran 20240514
[2] Xinhuanet, "Raising Sheep and Killing Sheep", India Becoming a "Foreign-funded Cemetery", 20230720
[3] The Paper, "Interpretation|The US-India "Partnership" Strengthens Again, Expert: India Enjoy Benefits But Unwilling to Be Bound by the Obligations of "Allies"" 20230626
[4] Institute of International Studies, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, "Hu Zhiyong: The India Role and Influence of the United States Indo-Pacific Strategy", 20231114