The Dominoes of Demographic Change: The Demographic Game Between Eastern Powers and India
Recently, I heard that India's population exceeds that of the largest countries in the East, which is also outrageous, right? Hasn't our country always been the world's leading populous country? How was it suddenly surpassed by India? What the hell is going on? Let's take a look at the story behind this demographic drama.
The rise and fall of a populous country: the transition from leading to second
The position of the Eastern powers as the world's most populous powers has long been maintained, but recently this situation has changed. According to the latest data, the total population of the eastern country at the end of 2024 will be 1,409.67 million, a decrease of 2.03 million from the end of the previous year. There were 9.07 million births and 11.1 million deaths. This means that the population of the large eastern countries has already begun to grow negatively.
At the same time, India's population continues to grow. Fertility rates in rural India have remained high, and although urbanization is also affecting people's perceptions of fertility, India's population as a whole is growing rapidly. As a result, India's total population has surpassed that of the eastern countries and has become the world's leading populous country.
As soon as this news came out, the big guys were stunned. Someone said: "Impossible, our country is so big, how can it be surpassed by India?" Some people also said: "This is long overdue, our country controls the population too strictly." "
Either way, the change is surprising. After all, the eastern country has been the world's leading country in terms of population for many years, and it really takes a little time to adapt to being suddenly overtaken by India.
The demographic dividend is fading: the hidden worries of an aging society
An important reason for the negative population growth in the large eastern countries is the increasingly serious problem of aging. According to the data, the proportion of the population aged 65 and above in the large eastern countries has exceeded 21% of the total population, entering a deep aging society.
An important problem brought about by the increase in the elderly population is the increased burden of medical care. According to statistics, the incidence of cancer in the elderly over 80 years old in large eastern countries is as high as 80%-85%, which has brought great pressure to the medical system.
Ageing also affects the vitality of society as a whole. There are fewer young people and more and more elderly people, which will lead to a decline in the ability of social innovation and a lack of economic development momentum.
Some experts pointed out: "If effective measures are not taken, the big eastern countries may face a serious pension crisis in the future." However, others argue that "while ageing is a challenge, it can also bring new opportunities, such as the development of the silver economy." "
Declining fertility: a dilemma in modern society
In addition to the problem of aging, another important reason for the negative population growth in the large eastern countries is the continued low fertility rate. The data show that the total fertility rate of the large eastern countries has fallen to about 1.2, far below the replacement level of 2.1.
The reasons for the decline in fertility are complex, ranging from the effects of economic pressures to changing attitudes. Nowadays, many young people feel that "children can not be born, but life cannot be over".
Someone said: "It's too expensive to raise children now, and it costs a lot of money just to go to school, who would dare to have more children?" Some people also said: "I am too busy at work and have no time to take care of my children, so it is better not to give birth to children than to be wronged." "
In the face of this situation, the government is also taking various measures to encourage childbirth, such as extending maternity leave and issuing childcare subsidies. However, the effect does not seem to be significant, and the fertility rate continues to decline.
The problem also exists in India, but not to the same extent. As India urbanizes, fertility is declining, but remains high overall.
Demographic Dividend Transfer: Opportunities and Challenges for India
India's population has surpassed that of the eastern countries and become the world's leading populous country, which is both an opportunity and a challenge for India.
On the one hand, a large population means a huge labor resource and consumer market, which may drive India's rapid economic development. Some experts predict: "In the next 20 years, India may become the main engine of world economic growth." "
But on the other hand, population growth is also putting enormous pressure on India. Providing employment, education and health care to so many people is a major challenge for the India government.
An India scholar said: "We should not only look at the number of population, but also pay attention to the quality of population. Only by improving the level of education and improving the quality of the labor force can we truly realize the demographic dividend. "
The Impact of Demographic Change: Who Will Be the Winner?
The demographic changes in the eastern powers and India will not only affect these two countries, but will also have a profound impact on the global landscape.
Some analysts believe that with the aging of the population in the eastern countries, economic growth may slow down. With the demographic dividend, India may catch up with the eastern powers and become the world's second largest economy in the next few decades.
But there are also those who hold a different view: "The number of people is not the determining factor, the key is to see how the population resources are used." Although the population of the large eastern country is aging, it has advantages in scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading. Although India has a large population, how to improve the quality of the population is the key. "
In any case, the impact of demographic change is far-reaching and requires close attention. As ordinary people, we may not be able to change this general trend, but we can think about how to find our own opportunities in this change.
After all, whether it is the great powers of the East or India, the ultimate goal is to give the people a better life. In this process, whoever is better able to cope with the challenges posed by demographic change is more likely to be the final winner. Let's wait and see this demographic drama!