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10:5:12, the EU voted on China's electric vehicle tariffs, a game of "difficult to distinguish between winners and losers".
The picture comes from the Internet
Winter is coming, there is a tension in the sky over the European continent, on October 4, a statement from the European Commission, like a pebble thrown into a calm lake, stirred up a thousand waves, this statement announced that the European Union will impose a final anti-dumping duty of up to 27.5% on Chinese-made electric vehicles, this vote, with 10 votes in favor, 5 votes against, 12 abstentions, for the trade dispute that lasted for months drew a stage to an end, this game is far from over, behind the intricate entanglement of interests, geopolitical games and the undercurrent of future industrial competition have just begun
I.10:5:12, the tip of the iceberg revealed by a vote
10 votes in favor, 5 votes against, 12 abstentions, behind this string of simple figures, hidden in the interests and positions of European countries, the countries that support the tariffs, led by France and Italy, most of these countries have a more mature traditional automotive industry, but in the field of electric vehicles started late, facing huge competitive pressure from Chinese brands
Taking France as an example, as a traditional European automobile industry power, its local brand in the era of fuel vehicles once had unlimited glory, in the impact of the wave of electrification, but it seems to be a little faltering, in the face of the strong rise of Chinese electric vehicle companies, the France government chose to use trade protectionism to fight for local enterprises to fight for respite
Germany, Hungary and other countries that oppose tariffs are more from their own economic interests and relations with China, Germany is the largest economy in Europe, but also the leader of the global automotive industry, its automotive industry is deeply integrated into the global supply chain, closely linked with the Chinese market, tariffs will not only damage the interests of Germany car companies, but also may trigger a trade war, causing a serious impact on the Germany economy
Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orban dismissed the EU's decision as a product of the "economic cold war" and made it clear that Hungary does not want to be involved, and in recent years, Hungary has actively developed relations with China, attracting a large number of Chinese companies to invest in factories, including Chinese electric vehicle giants such as BYD
As for the 12 countries that chose to abstain, they are more of a "wall-riding" attitude, perhaps fearful of offending China, or they may be suspicious of the EU's decision, so they have chosen a relatively "safe" way to wait and see
The results of this vote are only the tip of the iceberg, and what they reveal is the complex mentality and interest game displayed within Europe in the face of China's rise
Two. Germany's opposition: the smoke of the trade war or the pain of industrial upgrading?
"The European Commission and von der Leyen should not trigger a trade war, we need to negotiate a solution" Germany Finance Minister Lindner's remarks on social media, expressing Germany's strong dissatisfaction with the EU's decision to impose tariffs
Germany's opposition is not only due to concerns about the trade war, but also because of its strategic consideration for the future development of its own automotive industry
As the leader of the global automotive industry, the strength of Germany's automotive industry is inseparable from its perfect industrial chain, strong technology accumulation and in-depth layout of the global market, and under the impact of the wave of electrification and intelligence, the German automotive industry is also facing unprecedented challenges
With first-mover advantage and strong supply chain system, Chinese electric vehicle companies are rapidly seizing global market share, posing a huge threat to Germany's traditional car companies, Germany's automotive industry started late in electrification transformation, relatively insufficient technology accumulation, and lack core competitiveness in key areas such as batteries and software
In this context, on the one hand, the Germany government is actively promoting local car companies to increase their electrification transformation efforts, investing heavily in the development of battery technology, autonomous driving and other core areas, on the other hand, it is trying to make up for its own shortcomings by strengthening cooperation with China and consolidating its leading position in the global automotive industry
The EU's tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles are undoubtedly a heavy blow to Germany's strategy, which will not only weaken the competitiveness of Germany car companies in China, but also hinder cooperation between China and Germany in the field of electric vehicles, and ultimately damage the future of Germany's automotive industry
Three. Hungary opposes: Orban's "economic cold war" theory, is it alarmist or precautionary?
"What they are asking us to do now, or what the EU wants to do, is an economic cold war" Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orban's remarks were sharp and straightforward, exposing the essence of the EU's China policy
As one of the few EU member states that openly opposes tariffs on China, Hungary has actively developed relations with China in recent years, seeing it as an important opportunity to promote its own economic development
The Orban government is well aware that in the context of globalization encountering headwinds and the reshaping of the world economic structure, blindly following the United States and participating in the "decoupling and breaking the chain" with China will only harm its own interests
In recent years, Hungary has actively participated in the construction of the "Belt and Road", attracting a large number of Chinese enterprises to invest and build factories, including CATL, BYD and other important enterprises in China's electric vehicle industry chain
The EU's tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles will undoubtedly have a direct impact on the Hungary economy
What worries Orban even more is that the EU's decision may drag the world economy into the abyss of "bloc confrontation", and Hungary, sandwiched between the United States and Europe, will inevitably become a victim of this "new Cold War".
Orban's "economic cold war" theory may be alarmist, but it is not unfounded, in recent years, the United States has continuously increased the blockade and pressure on China's science and technology, trying to win over allies, build a "de-Chinese" supply chain, the risk of world economic fragmentation is rising
In the face of unprecedented changes in a century, Orban's choice is a manifestation of pragmatism and a defense of Hungary's national interests
Four. EU tariffs: a return to protectionism or the beginning of strategic competition?
The European Commission, in announcing tariffs on electric vehicles in China, also stressed that it will continue to negotiate with China and explore alternative solutions
This seemingly "leeway" statement is difficult to hide the anxiety and uneasiness shown by the EU in the competition of the electric vehicle industry
Europe has long been the center of the global automotive industry, but under the impact of the wave of electrification, the European automotive industry seems to be a little "powerless"
European car companies started late in the transformation of electrification, the technology accumulation is relatively insufficient, and the core competitiveness in key areas such as batteries and software is also lacking
In this context, the EU's tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles are not only a manifestation of protectionism, but also a means of strategic competition
The EU is trying to buy time for European car companies to transform through trade protectionism, and also hopes to take this opportunity to support the development of the local electric vehicle industry chain and enhance Europe's competitiveness in the global electric vehicle industry
Can this "beggar-thy-neighbor" approach really work?
The answer may not be promising
After years of development, China's electric vehicle industry has formed a complete industrial chain and a strong competitive advantage, the EU's trade barriers, may be able to slow down the entry of China's electric vehicles, but can not stop its determination and pace to enter the European market
The EU's trade protectionism may trigger a trade war, damage China-EU economic and trade relations, and ultimately damage Europe's own interests
More importantly, in today's in-depth development of globalization, it is impossible for any country or region to develop the electric vehicle industry in isolation, and only by strengthening international cooperation can mutual benefit and win-win results be achieved
The EU's tariffs on China's electric vehicles may be able to win it a short respite, but in the long run, it is more like a gamble that "harms others and does not benefit itself".
Five. Who is the winner behind the controversy? Who is lost at the crossroads of history?
The EU's tariffs on China's electric vehicles are a landmark event in the context of the rise of global trade protectionism
There are no winners in this game
For China, the EU's decision will undoubtedly have a certain impact on China's electric vehicle exports, but in the long run, it will also force Chinese companies to increase technological innovation, improve product competitiveness, and ultimately win a larger market share
For the EU, tariffs may be able to buy it a temporary respite, but in the long run, it is more like a gamble that will not only damage the economic and trade relations between China and the EU, but also hinder the development of the European electric vehicle industry
This game is also full of variables
Will China and the EU be able to find a proper solution to the problem in the future? Will the world economy fall into the quagmire of "bloc confrontation"? These problems will have a profound impact on the future development of the global electric vehicle industry
Standing at the crossroads of history, we hope that wisdom and rationality can overcome short-sightedness and prejudice, and that cooperation and win-win can replace confrontation and conflict
We believe that an open, inclusive and cooperative global electric vehicle industry is in the common interest of all countries and can create a better future for mankind
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