Heavy on 2300 yuan / bottle, the price of Feitian Moutai has recovered! The peak season of the "Double Festival" is not prosperous, and the consumption of alcohol is still flat丨National Day consumption research

Editor's note

The annual National Day holiday is not only a feast of consumption, but also a perspective of economic vitality and a barometer of market confidence. During the long holiday, the Securities Times reporter went deep into the front line, visited the property market, the car market, gold, mobile phones, liquor, catering, tourism and other industries, and launched a series of reports on "National Day Consumption Research" to feed readers.

Although the capital feast of liquor stocks has recently restarted, and the liquor sector has risen by more than 30% in September, it has shown a different scene in the consumer terminal.

"In the case of the closure of some of the surrounding sales stores, the overall sales of liquor in our mall during this year's National Day holiday are still relatively flat." During the National Day holiday, the person in charge of sales of a large shopping mall in Longhua District, Shenzhen told reporters. "Now the dealer's business is becoming more and more difficult to do, during the National Day holiday, although there is a certain sales volume of mid-to-high-end wine, but the year-on-year decline is more obvious." A dealer in Futian District, Shenzhen, told reporters.

Over the years, "Golden September and Silver October" are the peak season for consumption, due to the increase in visiting relatives and friends, banquets and business gifts during the holiday, the demand for liquor consumption will increase greatly, and the sales of liquor during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day "Double Festival" often reach 20%-30% of the year. However, during this year's "Double Festival", the market feedback was not as optimistic as expected.

At present, the performance of the secondary market of liquor stocks is in stark contrast to the performance of terminal consumption. "The continued strong performance of the liquor sector shows that the capital market still has confidence in the liquor industry, but consumers' purchasing power and demand may be weakened due to a variety of factors." A number of industry analysts said.

Alcohol consumption remains lackluster

Although it is currently in the peak consumption season, during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day this year, the liquor sales market has shown a trend of "not prosperous in the peak season".

The reporter saw from the liquor shelves of a large shopping mall in Longhua District, Shenzhen, that some products of national famous liquors such as Luzhou Laojiao, Xijiu, and Kouzijiao have different degrees of price concessions. For example, a liquor product under Luzhou Laojiao has launched a "1 more yuan get 1 piece" activity, and Guojiao 1573 has launched a full 1000 yuan discount 50 yuan activity on the basis of a price of 1050 yuan. Some of the lesser-known liquor products have greater price concessions, and Colorful Welcome Liquor and Laotan Liquor have launched the "Buy 1 Get 2 Free" activity.

"Today's liquor sales are not as good as year after year, and the decline in liquor sales in the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day this year is more obvious." The person in charge of the sales of the above-mentioned shopping mall said, "Some sales stores in the surrounding area have closed their doors, and liquor sales are still relatively flat." ”

"This year, mid-to-high-end liquor is more difficult to sell than in previous years, and the overall performance is that the liquor market is sluggish." The person in charge of the mall's sales also said.

"Generally, consumers who need to hold a banquet or send relatives and friends will order before the holiday." A dealer in Futian District, Shenzhen, told reporters that before the National Day holiday this year, the orders that should have gone have been almost gone, and the overall sales volume was less than expected.

The recent transaction price of Feitian Moutai, the industry vane, has also fluctuated. According to today's liquor price platform, the transaction price of the bulk bottle Feitian Moutai fell to a minimum of 2,200 yuan/bottle on September 25, and the transaction price of the original box of Feitian Moutai also reached the lowest price of 2,320 yuan/bottle in recent times on the same day. Subsequently, the transaction price of Feitian Moutai rebounded, but the price level has not yet recovered to the level before the Mid-Autumn Festival. As of October 5, the transaction price of the bulk bottle Feitian Moutai was reported at 2,300 yuan/bottle, and the original box Feitian Moutai was reported at 2,410 yuan/bottle.

In fact, the decline in the price of high-end liquor did not start this year, but the attention has increased this year. Li Xunlei, chief economist of China Thailand, said that the main factor for the current decline in liquor prices is the downward trend in the real estate cycle. When the real estate cycle enters a downward phase, it usually has a large impact on the economy.

In addition, the subsidy of e-commerce platforms for liquor also has a greater impact on offline liquor dealers. "After the liquor sold on the online e-commerce platform enters the '10 billion subsidy' activity, the price is often cheaper than that of offline goods and dealer stores, and online e-commerce directly delivers to the door, which is more convenient than shopping in offline supermarkets and dealer stores." The person in charge of the sales of the above-mentioned shopping mall said.

Consumers pay more attention to value for money

Although the overall sales of liquor during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day "Double Festival" this year were less than expected, some low-priced brand liquor was favored by consumers. "At present, consumers' consumption concepts are becoming more and more rational, and consumers will consider the cost performance of products more when shopping." The person in charge of the sales of the above-mentioned shopping mall told reporters.

In fact, this is also a true portrayal of the current liquor consumption market, with the change of market consumption situation, the pursuit of high cost performance has become a new trend of consumption.

According to the "2024 China Liquor Market Interim Research Report" released by the China Liquor Industry Association, in the first half of 2024, the top three price bands with the best feedback market sales from distributors and retailers in the liquor market are 300 yuan - 500 yuan, 100 yuan - 300 yuan, 100 yuan and below; The top three price bands of inversion degree are 800 yuan - 1500 yuan, 500 yuan - 800 yuan, and 300 yuan - 500 yuan.

In response to this change, some liquor companies actively develop products of different grades, mainly promoting cost performance and quality-price ratio. For example, in April 2023, Moutai launched the first 100 yuan price soy sauce wine "Taiyuan", with a price of 156 yuan per bottle, and the sales performance that year exceeded 1 billion; In June 2023, Guizhou Xijiu will launch a new product with a price of 100 yuan, with a suggested retail price of 188 yuan.

"Low-priced liquor is mainly based on volume, and store profits have to rely on mid-to-high-end liquor." The above-mentioned dealer told reporters.

Guoyuan Securities said that in the past, the price of liquor was mainly the logic of price increase and consumption upgrading, but now, the market consumption situation has changed, and consumers' current demand for cost performance has jumped to the core demand, and the logic of liquor price is evolving into a dual rational logic of consumption and price in line with this change.

In this context, Guoyuan Securities believes that in the context of rational consumption, consumers pay attention to the cost performance of products, and famous liquor companies with strong brand power and wide price band product matrix are expected to benefit, strong brand power liquor companies have a solid consumer base, and famous wine companies with wide price band product matrix, brand potential energy radiates downward, and is expected to undertake the rise of cost-effective consumer demand.

Consumption expectations are expected to improve

Stimulated by favorable policies, investor sentiment has improved recently, and market expectations for the liquor industry have also improved. Wind data shows that in September, the liquor sector rose by 31.74%, and the increase has been more obvious since late September. According to the analysis, the policy stimulus at the consumption level will help the liquor industry restore market confidence.

On September 24, the State Council Information Office held a press conference, at which People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng said that the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rate would be reduced, and the market benchmark interest rate would be lowered. Reducing interest rates on existing mortgages and harmonizing the minimum down payment ratio for mortgages; and creating new monetary policy tools to support the stable development of the stock market.

Wanlian Securities believes that the meeting announced a series of policies to boost the property market, including reducing the interest rate on the stock of housing loans and reducing the proportion of down payments for second homes. In addition, the consumer industry, especially the liquor, home furnishing industry and the real estate industry has a more obvious positive correlation, if the real estate industry recovers, it is expected to drive the demand for liquor, home furnishing and other consumer industries to pick up.

The meeting also announced the refinancing tool for stock repurchase and increase to support listed companies and major shareholders to repurchase and increase their holdings of shares, with an initial scale of 300 billion yuan and a loan interest rate of 2.25%. Wanlian Securities believes that for listed companies and major shareholders with higher dividend yields, they are more motivated to obtain interest rate spreads and boost stock prices through the implementation of this tool, which is conducive to the valuation repair of consumer segments with relatively high dividend yields.

The past development history of liquor shows that the cyclical changes of the industry are linked to macroeconomic trends, whether it is GDP growth, infrastructure investment, or the disposable income of urban residents, or the total amount of social zero, all of which have an important impact on the development of the liquor industry.

According to the research point of view of China Merchants Macro, the recent counter-cyclical control policy has released a signal of further force, and it is expected that the implementation progress of the previous policy will be significantly accelerated. The issuance of new special bonds during the year has been basically completed, and the physical workload of infrastructure-related projects has been formed, which can effectively improve the profitability of the midstream raw materials industry. A series of policy combinations to trade in the old and promote consumption will help the profit growth of the downstream consumer industry to regain its upward trend.

Editor-in-charge: Ye Shuyun

Proofreading: Wang Wei

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