On October 5, 2024, the new NBA warm-up game officially kicked off. Teams use the warm-up game as an opportunity to focus on training and adjusting their form, and usually don't rush to conclusions. The Denver Nuggets also featured in the warm-up game, eventually losing 103-107 to the Boston Celtics. As a season debut, the game was just a warm-up, but it exposed some of the Nuggets' potential problems after the offseason, particularly with three-point shooting and the role of new signing Westbrook.
In this game, the Nuggets made 32 three-point attempts, which is an improvement from their league-bottom three-point attempts last season, but it is still not optimistic. As one of the teams with the fewest three-point shots in the league last season, the Nuggets lost several key outside shooters, notably elite 3-and-D player Pope.
In this game, Westbrook became the Nuggets' player with the most three-point shots, making 6 shots and hitting 3 of them. This phenomenon has fans and analysts worried, and while Willis has shown some improvement in outside shooting on the court, it is clearly not a positive sign if he becomes the team's primary source of three-point firepower.
The Nuggets' three-point problem didn't stem from a warm-up game, but was closely tied to their offseason operations. Although the Nuggets won the championship in the 2022-23 season, they failed to renew Pope's contract in the offseason, which is widely criticized by the outside world. Pope was particularly critical from beyond the three-point line last season, and has repeatedly provided critical outside firepower support during the playoffs. Pope hit 125 three-pointers last season, the third-most on the team, shooting 40.6 percent, according to the stats. Another dropped player, Reggie · Jackson, also made a significant contribution to three-point shooting, shooting 35.9 percent from three-point range last season and hitting 102 three-pointers, ranking fourth on the team.
Without these two consistent three-point shooters, the Nuggets' ability to attack from the outside will inevitably be greatly reduced in the new season. The Nuggets ranked first in the league in three-point shots last season and ranked 25th in three-point shooting, and now, the team has lost two three-point guns all of a sudden, and in the face of such a situation, the Nuggets' outside problems will undoubtedly be more prominent.
New signing Dario · Saric has some three-point shooting ability, but he will have a hard time making up for the loss of outside firepower caused by the departures of Pope and Jackson. Nuggets stars Christian · Braun and Strauser have potential, but it remains to be seen if they can provide a consistent three-point output in the regular season.
Faced with the problem of insufficient three-point firepower, Nuggets head coach Michael · Malone said at the media day that the team's goal for the new season is to average 35-36 three-point shots per game. He believes that this goal will not be difficult to achieve, and that the team's three-point shooting tally can move from the bottom of the league to the mid-table position if Jamal · Murray, ·Michael Jr., Porter and Nik·ola add one three-point shot each, he argues.
However, Malone's assumption seems reasonable, but in fact it is overly optimistic. The game of basketball is not simply a matter of numbers, and the increase in the number of three-point shots depends not only on the willingness of the players, but also on the tactical arrangement and the creation of space on the court. The Nuggets, as a team that mainly relies on Jokic's interior offense and mid-range shooting, do not use three-point shooting as their primary offensive tool. Last season, Jokic led the Nuggets to the championship with his superb passing and interior finishing ability, but in today's league, relying on three-pointers to improve offensive efficiency has become a trend, and the Nuggets' offensive approach seems a bit "maverick".
Westbrook's arrival is a big addition for the Nuggets in the offseason, and the former MVP player has high expectations, especially when it comes to three-point shooting and offensive playmaking. In this game, Wei Shao's three-point shooting performance was indeed a bit eye-catching, shooting 3 of 6, but this is not enough to show that Wei Shao has improved substantially in outside projection. In fact, Wei Shao has always been known for not being good at three-point shooting throughout his career, and despite his amazing breakthrough and speed, three-point shooting has always been his shortcoming. According to the data, Wei Shao's career three-point shooting rate is only 30.4%, and his three-point shooting rate was as low as 27.3% last season.
Data analytics expert Kirk · Golsberry has released a chart listing the league's least efficient jumper from 2019-20 to 2023-24, with Westbrook ranking first. On average, he scored just 0.84 points per jumper, which is well below the league average. The Celtics' strategy when defending Wei Shao also reflected the opponent's "contempt" for his projection ability, and they even deployed the center to defend Wei Shao, almost allowing him to shoot from the outside. This tactic is partly a reflection of the opponent's belief that Wei Shao's projection is not enough to pose a threat to them.
Nuggets general manager Calvin · Booth has said that the team does not plan to force an increase in three-point shooting because they have Jokic, a player who dominates the mid-range and throwing area. In addition, Porter Jr. and Murray are also good scorers in the middle distance. However, as the rest of the league moves closer to the "magic ball theory", that is, the pursuit of the ultimate efficiency of three-point shooting and scoring under the basket, the Nuggets' offensive system seems a bit "retro".
Last season, the Nuggets averaged 19.9 free throws per game, the second-lowest in the league. If the Nuggets can't improve their offensive firepower with three-pointers and aren't good at making free throw shots, their overall offensive efficiency is likely to suffer. In high-level matchups such as the playoffs, if the Nuggets can only rely on the offense of a handful of players such as Jokic, Murray and Porter, they will struggle more against the opponent's high-intensity defense. Especially when Jokic is caught in the pack, the team lacks enough space point support on the outside, which will severely limit the Nuggets' offensive diversity.
Although it was only the first warm-up game of the new season, some of the problems exposed by the Nuggets in the game have already sparked widespread discussion. Three-point shooting is still the Nuggets' weak link, and Willis' outside play is a concern. Whether the Nuggets can improve their three-point shooting and overall offensive efficiency while maintaining their own characteristics in the new season will directly affect whether they can continue to remain competitive.
In today's fast-changing environment around the league, the Nuggets' tactics and roster adjustments may need to be more flexible in order to take their place in the fierce competition of the new season.