Niigata Swans VS Kawasaki Frontale
Cup: 2024 Japan Professional League Cup
The 2024 JLP Cup will feature 60 teams from the J1, J2 and J3 leagues. The 3 teams participating in the AFC Champions League in the 2024 season will participate directly in the quarterfinals. The remaining 57 teams are divided into 10 groups and play a single round-robin group stage, with the top team in each group qualifying. The 10 teams that qualified from the group stage will play home and away knockout rounds, with the winning five teams advancing to the quarterfinals with three teams from the AFC Champions League. The quarter-finals and semi-finals are both home and away two-legged knockout system, if the total number of goals in the two legs is the same, the number of away goals will be counted, if the winner is still not decided, extra-time will be played, and if the extra-time is drawn, the winner will be divided by penalty kicks. The final was played at a neutral venue, with a 90-minute draw and extra time until penalties were taken to determine the winner.
Japan League Cup 18:00 Niigata Swans VS Kawasaki Frontale Venue: Tohoku Electric Power Big Swan Stadium Weather: Occasional clouds Temperature: 20°C~21°C
Niigata Swans (home team) has 32 players, the whole team is worth €11.23m, 2 members of the national team, average age 27.4 years old, belongs to the league: Japan J1 League.
Record in the last 6 games: 1 win, 0 draws, 5 losses, 14 goals scored in the last 10 games, 18 goals conceded, goal difference -4.
Home results: 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses
Personnel situation: No main players have been injured or suspended, and the lineup is complete.
Niigata Swans have been in great form this season, contributing 12 goals and three assists to the team, making him the most directly involved in the team.
Team fighting spirit: Niigata Swans are sitting at home in this game, and they are bound to defeat their opponents with home advantage, and their fighting spirit is sufficient.
Team update: Niigata Swans are currently on a four-game losing streak and the team's current form is very sluggish.
Niigata Swans are also currently suffering a second consecutive defeat at home, and their home performance is also in a slump.
Niigata Swans have scored 6 goals and conceded 16 goals in their last 5 games, and the team's offensive performance is acceptable, but the defense is very poor.
Niigata Swan
Kawasaki Frontale (away) has 35 players, the whole team is worth €16.03m, 2 members of the national team, average age 26.5 years old, belongs to the league: Japan J1 League.
Record in the last 6 games: 4 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, 16 goals scored in the last 10 games, 13 goals conceded, and 3 goal difference.
Away results: 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses
Personnel situation: (main central defender) Jahir, (main central midfielder) Buta Oshima are injured and cannot play.
Kawasaki Frontale showed good competitive form in the last game, when Marsinho scored one goal and assisted his teammates to score.
Team Fighting Spirit: Both teams will try to beat their opponents in this game to take the lead in qualifying, and there is no doubt about the fighting spirit.
Team update: Kawasaki Frontale have scored 10 goals and conceded 5 goals in the last 5 games, and the team's attack has been excellent and the defense has been solid.
Kawasaki Frontale have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4 games, and the team's form is decent.
Kawasaki Frontale has won 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in the last 5 away games, and the away performance is also average.
Recent historical meetings between the two teams: The two teams have met 5 times in the last 5 years, and Kawasaki Frontale has won 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, which is slightly underdog.
In terms of the same handicap: Initial handicap: the home team draws, the home team has the same handicap trend in the last 6 games as this game: win and lose win and lose, and the away team has the same handicap trend in the last 6 games as this game: lose lose win and lose.
Kawasaki Frontale
Pre-Match Briefing:
Niigata will be hoping for a better result in their upcoming fixtures after suffering a 0-4 defeat to Kashima Antlers in the J1 League.
In that match, Niigata managed 68% possession and just 1 of their 9 attempts at goal on target. Niigata's only "goal" was an own goal by Kazuki Chiba (12th minute). For opponents Kashima Antlers, 11 shots on goal with 6 of them on target, with goalscorers including Yuta Higuchi (15th and 45th minutes) and Yuma Suzuki (53rd minute).
Niigata's recent games have usually been intense and high-scoring contests. Over their last 6 matches, a total of 23 goals have been scored for both sides (3.83 goals per game) with Niigata contributing 6 goals overall. It remains to be seen whether that high-scoring trend will continue on in this next game.
Kawasaki Frontale, for their part, were in excellent form following a 4-1 win over Machida Zevia in their most recent J1 League fixture.
In this game, Kawasaki Frontale managed 64% possession and 13 of their 25 attempts at goal on target. Goalscorers included Souta Miura (28th minute), Shin Yamada (38th minute), Ellison (50th minute) and Marsinho (71st minute). Machida Zevia's Hiroki Nakajima (13th minute) scored a goal.
The stats show that Kawasaki Frontale have conceded in 5 of their last 6 games, conceding 7 goals in total, with some issues to be addressed on the defensive end.
Head-to-head record
A review of the head-to-head record stretching into 05/05/2017 tells us that Niigata have won 2 of these games and Kawasaki Frontale 3 and 1 drawn one.
A total of 21 goals were scored in these games, with Niigata netting 7 and Kawasaki Frontale netting 14, giving them an average of 3.5 goals per game.
The last time the two teams faced each other in the league was J1 League Round 32 on 27/09/2024 when it finished with a 5-1 victory over Niigata Frontale.
In that game, Kawasaki Frontale managed 37% possession and 10 of 17 attempts at goal with goalscorers including Ellison (13th and 63rd minutes), Taito Washisaka (18th minute) and Shin Yamada (65th and 73rd minutes).
Niigata had 23 shots on goal with 8 of them on target and Shusuke Ota netted the only goal in the 86th minute.
Niigata Swans VS Kawasaki Frontale
1. Strength analysis
- Niigata Swans last 10 games: 14 goals - 18 goals conceded = -4 (goal difference)
- Kawasaki Frontale last 10 games: 16 goals scored - 13 goals conceded = 3 (goal difference)
- In the absolute theoretical world, Kawasaki Frontale has an advantage of 0.7 goals in terms of strength.
2. State analysis
- Niigata Swans last 6 games: 1 wins, 0 draws, 5 losses, score of 3 points.
- Kawasaki Frontale last 6 games: 4 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, score of 12 points.
- The difference in points is 9 points, more than 7 points, indicating that Kawasaki Frontale has a significant advantage in form.
3. Analysis of fighting spirit
- Both sides are in the knockout rounds of the Japanese League Cup, and this game is the first leg, so there is no doubt about the fighting spirit. Kawasaki Frontale has key players injured, but they will still go all out to win in order to take the lead; Niigata Swans, on the other hand, will want to win at home by playing at home and avoid entering a passive situation away from home. Therefore, both teams have a strong fighting spirit.
4. Asia Index Analysis
- The initial handicap is tied for the home team, the water level is 1.01 for the home team and 0.79 for the away team.
- The current live handicap is a draw/half for the home team and the water level is 0.78 for the home team and 1.08 for the away team.
- At around 11:00 on October 8, the handicap began to fall sharply from the draw handicap, with the home team's water level gradually falling from 1.01 and the away team's water level rising, which was a key turning point in market sentiment.
- The Oct. 9 data continues to show the home team continuing to move lower, reaching a low of 0.76, while the away team's water level is gradually rising above 1.10, a trend that suggests the agency's confidence in Kawasaki Frontale is waning. The changes in the handicap also show that institutions are controlling risk by raising the water level of the away team to prevent the away team from buying too much.
5. Institutional Bottom Line
- Win: 2.50 / 2.70 = 0.93
- Flat: 3.50 / 3.55 = 0.99
- Negative: 2.38 / 2.10 = 1.13
- None of the three values exceeded 1.2, indicating that it is possible to play, and the home undefeated value is low, which is more advantageous.
6. Analysis of the change of win, draw and loss trend
- The agency gradually raised the home win level from the initial to the instant handicap, and lowered or maintained the away win level, showing a preference for Kawasaki Frontale to win. Over time, the money in the market is more inclined to Kawasaki Frontale, and institutions have adjusted the home win level to attract buying for Niigata Swans.
- The combination of the lowest return level shows the real intention of the institution, which is to be more optimistic about the outcome of the guest win. While the water level of the draw has been adjusted, it is more about balancing the market options than supporting the outcome of the draw.
Win transaction data
7. Transaction data analysis
- The price of the home win hovers around 3.05 with less volume and less volatility, indicating that the market does not have a lot of confidence in the home win. Sellers in the main winning direction have fewer listings, while buyers are more active. This means that the capital impetus for the home win is weak, and the market does not expect a home win highly.
- The transaction price of the away win has remained around 2.52 many times, and the volume is significantly larger, reflecting the market's strong expectation of Kawasaki Frontale's victory. The amount of buyers listed in the away win direction is significantly larger, especially in the range of 2.36-2.52, showing that more funds are optimistic about the victory of the away team Kawasaki Frontale.
- The price of the draw has risen from 3.55 to 3.75, and the volume of the draw is also quite significant, indicating that the market is also taking the possibility of a draw seriously, and some funds believe that the draw may be a relatively conservative outcome. The buyers and sellers of the draw maintained a certain balance, and the transaction was more active, but most of the funds were concentrated in the range of 3.55-3.75, which indicates that although the market expected a draw, there was no extreme inclination, and the funds changed hands frequently in this price range.
Final Lottery Prediction Suggestion: Home +1 Win 0 to 0
Statement: I only provide pre-game information and China Sports Lottery and Beijing single game analysis and prediction, most of the data from the network collection, analysis is only a personal opinion for reference only, please buy a reasonable regular lottery.