Bulgaria VS Luxembourg
Cup: 2024-2025 UEFA Nations League
The UEFA Nations League will be played in the following format
1. The 55 teams are divided into 4 levels of ABCD according to their rankings. The grading criteria for the first edition were based on the points ranking of the UEFA associations.
2. The tournament will be held in even-numbered years, and the tournament will be played until the finals of the second year.
3. The league adopts a relegation system: the bottom 4 teams of the A, B and C leagues will be relegated, and the 4 groups of champions of the B, C and D leagues will be promoted.
4. There will be 4 places in the UEFA Nations League to qualify for the finals of the European Football Championship.
UEFA Nations League 00:00 Bulgaria VS Luxembourg Venue: Bulgaria · Plovdiv · Hristobtev Stadium Weather: Cloudy Temperature: 13°C~14°C
Bulgaria (home team) has 25 players, the team is worth €32.7m, the average age is 27.5 years, and the FIFA world ranking: 81st.
Record in the last 6 games: 2 wins, 4 draws, 0 losses, 8 goals scored in the last 10 games, 10 goals conceded, goal difference -2.
Group standings: 2 matches, 1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses, 4 points, ranked 1st in the group.
Home results: 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses
Personnel situation: No main players have been injured or suspended, and the lineup is complete.
Team spirit: Bulgaria are currently top of Group C and facing bottom-placed Luxembourg, so it is natural for the team to take advantage of the opportunity to take all three points and retain the first place.
Team update: Bulgaria played two UEFA Nations League group games in September, drawing 0-0 with Belarus in the first round and beating Northern Ireland 1-0 at home in the second round, winning one and drawing one, remaining unbeaten and in decent form.
Bulgaria have kept clean sheets in their last two UEFA Nations League group games and have been good defensively.
Bulgaria are unbeaten in their last two home games, scoring three goals and conceding two, and their home form has improved.
Bulgaria VS Luxembourg
Luxembourg (away) has 25 players, the team is worth €31.53m, the average age is 27 years old, and the FIFA world ranking: 87th.
Record in the last 6 games: 1 win, 0 draws, 5 losses, 8 goals scored in the last 10 games, 15 goals conceded, goal difference -7.
Group standings: 2 matches, 0 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, 0 points, ranked 4th in the group.
Away results: 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses
Personnel situation: No main players have been injured or suspended, and the lineup is complete.
Team spirit: Luxembourg are currently bottom of the group stage and will certainly be eager to save morale with a win.
Team update: Luxembourg played two UEFA Nations League group games in September, losing 2-0 away to Northern Ireland in the first round and 1-0 at home to Belarus in the second round.
Luxembourg failed to score a goal in their first two UEFA Nations League group games, and their attack was slightly weak.
Luxembourg have suffered a four-game losing streak on the road recently, keeping a clean sheet and conceding 10 goals during this period, and their away form is terrible.
Recent all-time meetings between the two teams: Bulgaria have met Luxembourg five times before, with three wins and two draws, remaining unbeaten and dominant.
In terms of the same handicap: Initial handicap: the home team handicap half / one goal, the home team has the same handicap trend in the last 6 games as this game: win win lose, and the away team has the same handicap trend in the last 6 games as this game: win or lose win lose lose.
Bulgaria VS Luxembourg
Pre-Match Briefing:
Bulgaria will host Luxembourg in their next UEFA Nations League fixture looking to continue their recent upward momentum. Bulgaria are at the top of Group C3 with Luxembourg and will be favourites against the bottom of the group against the Red Lions.
Bulgaria's last two games against Luxembourg have been played away from home, with both results being draws. Heading into this game in better form, they will be confident of a home victory.
Illyan · Iliyev has injected some stability into the team, who are now unbeaten in eight games prior to this game. However, the coach hopes that the team can improve on the two wins in the last 17 games.
Their most recent win came in their last fixture, a 1-0 victory over Northern Ireland, in which Kirill · Despodov scored the winner in the first half.
Luxembourg have never won against Bulgaria. Of the 15 meetings between the two countries, Luxembourg have lost 13 times. This record worries the visitors in their current poor start to the Nations League.
So far, Luxembourg are the only team in the group that has yet to score. After losing 13 consecutive times to Bulgaria, they see two consecutive draws as positives.
However, Luxembourg's visit after four consecutive defeats will undoubtedly dampen the hopes of the visiting fans. In this group, they lost 2-0 to Northern Ireland in their first game and recently lost 1-0 at home to Belarus.
Luxembourg have failed to score in their last four matches.
Bulgaria VS Luxembourg
1. Strength analysis
- Bulgaria's goal difference in the last 10 games: 8 goals scored, 10 goals conceded, goal difference -2.
- Luxembourg's goal difference in the last 10 games: 8 goals scored, 15 goals conceded, -7 goal difference.
- Bulgaria has an advantage of 0.5 goals in absolute theoretical strength.
2. State analysis
- Bulgaria: 2 wins, 4 draws, 10 points.
- Luxembourg: 1 win, 5 losses, 3 points.
- The points difference is 7 points, indicating that Bulgaria's recent form is significantly better than Luxembourg's. In terms of injuries, neither team has key players injured or suspended, which has little impact.
3. Analysis of fighting spirit
- Bulgaria are currently top of the group and will be looking to secure all three points to cement their lead against bottom-placed Luxembourg.
- Luxembourg has lost two in a row and finished bottom of the group, although it theoretically has the will to grab points, but the recent form is sluggish, the attack is weak, and the fighting spirit may be difficult to translate into actual performance.
4. Asia Index Analysis
- The initial handicap is 1.01 for the home team and 0.78 for the away team.
- The current live handicap is half a goal/goal for the home team, with the water level at 0.93 for the home team and 0.91 for the away team.
- The home team's water level fluctuated slightly in the days leading up to the match, especially on October 9 and October 11, which may reflect the movement of funds in the market.
- These fluctuations show that the market has some confidence in Bulgaria, but is not entirely inclined to a single outcome. Small fluctuations like these usually mean that institutions are trying to adjust the water level to deal with the uneven distribution of buying volumes.
- Despite the fluctuation in the water level, the handicap remained unchanged and the institution held on to half a set, indicating that its confidence in the home team Bulgaria remained solid.
5. Institutional Bottom Line
- 胜：1.73/1.66 ≈ 1.042
- Ping: 3.50/3.15 ≈ 1.111
- 负：4.60/4.80 ≈ 0.958
- All values are below 1.2, so all three outcomes are likely to be played and the values are relatively close.
6. Analysis of the change of win, draw and loss trend
- The home win level gradually rose from 1.68 in the initial session to between 1.72-1.85 in the instant session, indicating that the market's confidence in Bulgaria has fluctuated, but it has generally remained relatively low, reflecting that institutional confidence in the home win is still strong.
- The draw level was initially at 3.35 and then fluctuated between 3.40-3.50. This change shows that the market is not confident in the outcome of the draw, and the institution has not significantly adjusted the draw level, further indicating that the probability of a draw is low.
- The away win level was slightly lowered from 5.40 at the beginning to between 4.40 and 5.40, but basically remained at a high level, indicating that the agency believes that Luxembourg has a low probability of winning and is not optimistic about the away win.
Home win transaction data
7. Transaction data analysis
- Home wins accounted for 78% of total turnover, much higher than draws and away wins, showing the market's concentrated confidence in Bulgaria's victory. Excessive inflow of funds into the main win will trigger the phenomenon of "overheating" in the market. The home win completed more buying and selling at the 1.79 trading point, but the home win price gradually dropped to 1.76. This usually means that the market is constantly flooding with money for the main winner, and at the same time, the institution is controlling the risk by lowering the price. This trend suggests that the market's view of the home win may be biased towards a single one.
- The low turnover of funds in the away win direction and the scattered pending orders mean that the market's confidence in the Luxembourg upset is weak. In the direction of guest wins, the distribution of funds is scattered, there are fewer buy orders, and the transaction price is constantly rising, reflecting the market's low expectations for Luxembourg's victory, and funds are reluctant to enter this market.
Final lottery prediction suggestion: home -1 loss 1 to 1
Statement: I only provide pre-game information and China Sports Lottery and Beijing single game analysis and prediction, most of the data from the network collection, analysis is only a personal opinion for reference only, please buy a reasonable regular lottery.