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Let the U.S. military go to war with the PLA? Harris talks about the Taiwan Strait, only seven words, and his position is a bit strange
Harris's Seven Words and the Burden of the Taiwan Strait: A Dangerous Game of Strategic Ambiguity
United States Vice President Kamala Harris's latest statement on the Taiwan Strait issue - "I don't want to get bogged down in assumptions" - is only seven words, but it is like a pebble thrown into a calm lake, stirring up ripples. Behind these seven words is the embodiment of United States's continued policy of "strategic ambiguity" on the Taiwan Strait issue, and also reflects the complexity and delicacy of Sino-US relations, as well as the severity and danger of the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
I. The Fog of Strategic Ambiguity: History, Reality and Future
United States' Taiwan policy has long been shrouded in the fog of "strategic ambiguity." On the one hand, United States provides military support to Taiwan through the "Taiwan Relations Law" and other means, but on the other hand, it maintains an ambiguous attitude on the "one-China" principle and does not explicitly commit to assisting in defense Taiwan. The purpose of this strategy is to maintain a balance between China and the United States, both to maintain United States influence in the Asia-Pacific region and to avoid direct conflict with China.
Looking back on history, during the Cold War, United States needed to use Taiwan to contain the mainland; After the end of the Cold War, Taiwan became an important strategic fulcrum for United States on the first island chain. Now, with the improvement of China's comprehensive national strength, the complexity of the situation in the Taiwan Strait has become more prominent. The effectiveness of the United States policy of "strategic ambiguity" is increasingly questioned. It is against this background that Harris's seven words emerged. It is not only an evasion of the hypothetical issue of "military reunification of Taiwan," but also a manifestation of United States' unwillingness to make a clear statement and avoid provoking China.
However, this ambiguity strategy does not come without a cost. It has brought more uncertainty to the situation in the Taiwan Strait, and has also caused the "Taiwan independence" forces to have illusions and misjudge the situation. Harris's statement, while seemingly cautious, could also be interpreted as a lack of United States commitment to Taiwan, thereby weakening Taiwan's confidence and even exacerbating regional tensions.
Second, the geopolitical chess game: the Sino-US game and the fate of Taiwan
The Taiwan Strait issue is not only an internal affair between the two sides of the strait, but also an important chess piece in the game between China and the United States. The United States regards Taiwan as an important tool to contain China's rise, and constantly puts pressure on China through arms sales and military exercises. However, is United States really willing to go to war with China over Taiwan? Harris's statement may have given the answer.
China's position on the Taiwan Strait issue is firm and clear: it adheres to peaceful reunification, but will never renounce the use of force. The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) has a geographical advantage in the Taiwan Strait region and has strong combat capability and firm will. As the U.S. military comes from afar, logistical support and adaptability to the combat environment will face huge challenges.
More importantly, Taiwan's fate is ultimately in the hands of the people on both sides of the strait. United States support may bring some temporary security to Taiwan, but it cannot change the fact that Taiwan is part of China. The Taiwan authorities should have a clear understanding of the situation, give up the illusion of "relying on the United States to seek independence," and return to the political basis of the "consensus of '92," so that peace and stability in Taiwan can be truly safeguarded.
Third, the deep meaning behind Harris's seven words: United States interests come first
Harris's "I don't want to get bogged down in assumptions" seems to be neutral, but in fact reflects United States's consistent pragmatic approach to diplomacy. United States's core interests on the Taiwan Strait issue are not Taiwan security, but its own strategic interests. United States hopes to contain China through the Taiwan Strait issue, but it is unwilling to pay too high a price for it.
United States arms sales to Taiwan are more of a commercial transaction than real strategic support. This can be seen in the moldy incident of military uniforms purchased from Taiwan. United States hopes that Taiwan can "defend itself" and consume China's strength, but it is not willing to go into battle in person and shed blood and sacrifice for Taiwan.
Harris's statement is also a reminder to the Taiwan authorities not to rely too much on United States' commitments. United States' support is conditional, and Taiwan must pay a corresponding price. And this price may be Taiwan's economic interests or Taiwan's political autonomy.
IV. Future Prospects: Hopes and Challenges for Peaceful Reunification
The future of the Taiwan Strait issue is full of uncertainties. Peaceful reunification remains the common aspiration of the people on both sides of the strait. However, the existence of "Taiwan independence" forces and the interference of external forces have made the road to peaceful reunification full of challenges.
China will continue to adhere to the general policy of peaceful reunification, and at the same time be prepared to deal with all kinds of complicated situations. United States needs to find a balance between defending its own interests and avoiding direct conflict. The Taiwan authorities, on the other hand, should have a clear understanding of the situation, give up the illusion of "Taiwan independence," return to the political basis of the "consensus of '92," and work with the mainland to explore the path of peaceful reunification.
Harris's seven words, although brief, have triggered people to think deeply about the situation in the Taiwan Strait. Behind these seven words is the undercurrent of the Sino-US game and the heavy burden of Taiwan's fate. Only by maintaining rational restraint on all sides can the situation in the Taiwan Strait slide into the abyss of war and bring true peace and prosperity to the people on both sides of the strait.
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