On October 7, a major event occurred in Philippine politics, when former President Rodrigo · Duterte announced his candidacy for the post of mayor of his hometown of Davao City. His son, the current mayor of Davao City, also supported his father and became his father's running mate.
The high-profile return of the former Philippine president, who is regarded as a "pro-China faction", means that the Philippine infighting has escalated, and perhaps the "South China Sea conspiracy" of the current Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will be completely dismantled without our intervention.
At the critical moment, Korea suddenly made a move, what does Korea want to do? What kind of changes will the situation in the South China Sea usher in?
The Philippines escalated infighting
On the 7th of this month, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte completed his candidacy for the post of mayor of Davao City in the 2025 midterm elections, and his son subsequently said that he would become his father's running mate.
In an interview with the media, Duterte, who is now 79, said, "I want to serve you." There are two major events worth paying attention to, what are they?
Before Duterte became president of the Philippines, he served as mayor of Davao City for more than 20 years, a key location for Duterte's rise to the highest political positions in the Philippines.
Now, Duterte has announced that he will run again for mayor of Davao City, which some believe is a desire to once again rely on Davao City to enter the political center of the Philippines.
But Duterte bluntly said that he is not physically fit to withstand the challenge of running for any state office.
Some media believe that Duterte's high-profile return to politics is actually paving the way for his daughter Sarah, what to say?
When Marcos Jr. was running for president of the Philippines, Sarah was his running mate. In the voting for the president and vice president, Sarah received significantly more votes than Marcos Jr.
However, after Marcos Jr. took office, he made it clear that he wanted to go to the dark with United States, and made a lot of things happen in the South China Sea area of the mainland, which made the situation in the South China Sea and Sino-Philippine relations tense.
Sarah couldn't stand it, and in June this year, she announced her resignation from the Marcos Jr. cabinet, and also put on a "never cooperate" attitude.
Earlier, Duterte also publicly criticized Marcos Jr. The gesture of the Duterte father and daughter clearly reveals their dissatisfaction with Marcos Jr., and also exposes that the Philippine infighting has reached a white-hot stage, and the Duterte family is likely not to let the Marcos family "have a drama to sing".
Can the Duterte family succeed?
Looking back on history, the Filipino people have mixed evaluations of the Marcos family, and Marcos Jr.'s father once plunged the Filipino people into misery and even broke out into conflict.
But Marcos Jr. was able to become the president of the Philippines, and everything behind it is worth scrutinizing.
Just imagine, a person who has been away for more than United States years can return to his homeland and become president in a short period of time. The most important thing is that the Marcos family was almost "driven out" of the Philippines back then, and without the help of the Duterte family, it would be difficult for Marcos Jr. to gain a foothold quickly.
However, Marcos Jr.'s actions are really infuriating, destabilizing the situation in the South China Sea and continuing to cool Sino-Philippine relations.
What made Duterte even more angry was that Marcos Jr. was "ungrateful" and began to cut off the Duterte faction at home. In May, 35 pro-Duterte police officers were removed, including seven police chiefs.
There are growing signs that the two Filipino families have developed irreconcilable differences.
Duterte, who has a "pro-China" label, has promoted many Sino-Philippine cooperation projects, such as the Estepera-Pantarion (E-P) bridge built with mainland assistance.
In an interview with the Global Times in mid-April, Duterte said he was grateful for the mainland's permission to import almost everything the Philippines could produce. "I am so grateful to China for the fraternal gesture that I almost cried, which is really good for us Filipinos," he said.
Duterte's attitude toward China is relatively friendly, and his China policy is relatively moderate. If he or his daughter can successfully bring down Marcos Jr., will the South China Sea problem created by the Philippines be resolved?
Korea stepped in to "help the Philippines"?
During the years that Marcos Jr. was in power, the Philippines almost became a "thug" in the South China Sea of United States, often doing things in the South China Sea of the mainland, and repeatedly testing the bottom line of the mainland.
The Philippines is even worse at home, with inflation in June at 3.7 percent, according to data released by the Philippine National Bureau of Statistics in early July, with 1,600 households believing they were poor because of inflation. It is also the highest self-rated poverty rate among Filipino households since 2002.
The biggest headache for Marcos Jr. is that after the collapse of the "Madu" coalition, Marcos Jr.'s poll support rate has continued to decline, and as of June this year, Marcos Jr.'s support rate has fallen to 53%, and his trust rating has become 52%.
The Duterte family's Sarah's approval rating has risen to 69 percent, and the trust rating has remained at 71 percent for a long time. This is enough to see that Marcos Jr. is unpopular.
If Marcos Jr. is unable to succeed him, the situation in the South China Sea will surely change in a new way. But at the critical moment, Korea struck.
On October 7, the day Duterte announced his return to politics, Korea President Yoon Seok-yue and Marcos Jr. held talks, and the two sides agreed to establish a strategic partnership and strengthen all-round cooperation, such as nuclear power technology, national defense, military industry, maritime and other fields. Korea will not only send troops to participate in the coastal military exercises implemented by the Philippines, but will also allocate $2 billion to the Philippines to promote the construction of a cross-sea bridge.
Korea came to help Marcos Jr. at this time, firstly, to win over the Philippines and expand its own strength in order to confront North Korea and Russia, and on the other hand, Korea also wanted to cooperate more closely with the United States, Japan and Australia through the Philippines. This shows that Korea is getting closer and closer to the position of the pawn of the United States "Indo-Pacific strategy".
In June this year, officials from the Korea Embassy in the Philippines and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs made erroneous remarks about the South China Sea issue. It can be seen that Korea has not won over the Philippines for a day or two.
For Marcos Jr., with Korea as his right-hand man, his life may be better, but walking on the wrong path, no matter how he goes, is wrong.
Last month, the United States, Japan, Australia and the Philippines conducted training in the South China Sea, and Japanese media also said that it was to "balance China". With these countries supporting the Philippines, Marcos Jr. is increasingly unable to find the right direction.
In the face of maritime threats from the Philippines and other countries, the mainland has recently stepped up its exercises and training activities in the South China Sea. On 28 September, our army conducted a routine drill near Huangyan Island.
We are a peace-loving country, but that doesn't mean we don't have a fist.
Resources:
[1] Huanqiu.com, "Back to Politics? Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's registration for mayor of Davao City has attracted widespread attention from the outside world 20241009
[2] The Observer "Philippine infighting escalates: Marcos Jr. dismisses 35 pro-Duterte police officers in two days, fears of a "coup"? 》 20240528
[3] Yonhap News Agency, "South Korea-Philippines Leaders Agree to Establish Strategic Partnership", 20241012
[4] Huanqiu.com, "The People's Liberation Army's Routine Exercise in the Sea and Airspace near Huangyan Island, Expert: It Is a Warning to Certain Extraterritorial Countries to Make Trouble in the South China Sea" 20240929