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During the 23rd meeting of the Council of Heads of Government (Prime Ministers) of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Member States recently held in Beijing, a remarkable trilateral meeting quietly unfolded, in which Chinese Premier Li Qiang, Russia Prime Minister Mishustin and Mongolia Prime Minister Oyun Erden sat together to discuss the future of trilateral cooperation.
Mongolia is like a sandwich biscuit, with Russia to the north and China to the south, and this geographical location is destined to Mongolia's special position in international politics, it can neither offend the big bear in the north, nor annoy the dragon in the south, and at the same time it has to beware of the covetousness of the hawkish forces in the United States on the other side of the ocean.
At this meeting, Mongolia Prime Minister Oyun Erden said three sentences, which are incredible, and directly set the tone for future Sino-Mongolian relations; he said: First, Mongolia is willing to work hand in hand with China and Russia; second, it is necessary to connect the Eurasian Economic Union, the "Steppe Road" development strategy, and the "Belt and Road" initiative; third, it is necessary to speed up the construction of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor and strengthen cooperation in the fields of transportation, energy, and culture.
These three sentences sound quite official, but it is interesting to taste it carefully, let's start with the first sentence, Mongolia is willing to work together with China and Russia, this seems to be nothing special at first glance, but Mongolia has always played a balance between China, Russia and the United States, and now publicly states that it wants to cooperate with China and Russia, isn't this equivalent to choosing sides on the international stage?
In the second sentence, the Eurasian Economic Union, the "Steppe Road" and the "Belt and Road" are docked, there are three concepts in this statement: the Eurasian Economic Union is led by Russia, the "Steppe Road" is Mongolia's own development strategy, and the "Belt and Road" is our China's signature project.
The last sentence to speed up the construction of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor directly points out the direction of cooperation among the three countries, the economic corridor is not just talking, which means in-depth cooperation in transportation, energy, culture and other fields, which is a once-in-a-lifetime development opportunity for Mongolia.
These three sentences of Oyun Erden are not only diplomatic rhetoric but also Mongolia's strategic choice for the future development direction, which can be said to conform to the general trend of geopolitical and economic development.
Mongolia's development has always been constrained by its special geographical location, as a landlocked country, this "sandwich" status is both a challenge and an opportunity, during the Cold War Mongolia was a satellite of the Soviet Union, the economy is highly dependent on the Soviet Union, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Mongolia began to implement a "third neighbor" policy, trying to find a balance outside of China and Russia.
Although Mongolia strives to develop relations with United States, Japan and other countries, its economic development is still inseparable from the two big neighbors of China and Russia, data show that in 2022, China is Mongolia's largest trading partner, bilateral trade volume reached 10.8 billion US dollars, accounting for 62% of Mongolia's total foreign trade, while Russia is Mongolia's largest energy supplier, about 90% of petroleum products rely on Russia imports.
In this context, Mongolia's choice to strengthen cooperation with China and Russia can be said to be a pragmatic choice, China, as the world's second largest economy, is promoting the "Belt and Road" initiative, which provides Mongolia with huge development opportunities, although Russia is facing Western sanctions due to the Ukraine crisis, it is still an energy power, vital to Mongolia's energy supply.
Oyun Erden's "Eurasian Economic Union, 'Steppe Road' development strategy and the joint construction of the 'Belt and Road' initiative" is actually a multi-party win-win strategic concept, the Eurasian Economic Union is a regional economic integration organization led by Russia, the "Steppe Road" is Mongolia's own development strategy, and the "Belt and Road" is China's global initiative, the docking of the three can not only bring more development opportunities to Mongolia, but also promote the economic integration of the entire Eurasian region.
Oyun Erden proposed to "accelerate the construction of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor", the concept of this economic corridor was first proposed in 2014 by the heads of state of China, Russia and Mongolia, it aims to strengthen the construction of transportation infrastructure, promote trade and investment facilitation, deepen energy cooperation, etc., to achieve the interconnection of the three countries, if this economic corridor can be successfully completed, not only can bring huge economic benefits to Mongolia, but also will become an important link connecting Eurasia.
Behind this meeting of the three prime ministers is actually a complex international game, just in early August this year, United States Secretary of State Blinken visited Mongolia, an important purpose of this visit, is to promote the United States and Mongolia direct flights, on the surface direct flights are only a civil aviation project, but in the geopolitical chess game this is a big move.
Why is the United States so keen on direct flights with Mongolia? Mongolia is between China and Russia, and if United States can gain a foothold here, it will be tantamount to driving a nail around China and Russia, which is an important part of United States' global strategy.
However, there has been no substantial progress in this direct flight project so far, on the one hand, it is limited by objective conditions, such as the economic feasibility of the route, and on the other hand, it may also be a strategic choice for Mongolia after weighing the pros and cons.
Looking at the choice of Mongolia countries, Prime Minister Oyun Erden's statement at the three-country meeting this time actually gave China what United States wanted, which shows that Mongolia country has clearly seen the United States's small abacus and is unwilling to become a pawn in the game of great powers.
Why did the Mongolia parliament make such a choice? From an economic point of view, China is Mongolia's largest trading partner, and Russia is a major energy supplier, and good relations with these two neighbors are crucial to Mongolia's economic development.
From a geopolitical point of view, Mongolia is sandwiched between China and Russia, and if it leans too much towards United States, it may face pressure from two large neighbors, and Mongolia does not want to become a second Ukraine or Afghanistan.
Mongolia countries have also seen what United States is doing in other regions, such as the Philippines, which wants to use United States to confront China in the South China Sea, only to get hurt and make the regional situation more tense, and Mongolia countries obviously do not want to repeat the mistakes of the past.
To put it bluntly, this choice is a wise move by Mongolia, which not only does not offend any party, but also benefits from Sino-Russian cooperation.
As we all know, United States has always wanted to win over Central Asian countries, with the aim of isolating Russia and encircling China, but United States promises are often empty promises, and there are not many actual benefits.
On the other hand, Sino-Russian-Mongolian cooperation, once the effect appears, it is a real benefit, for Central Asian countries, this is undoubtedly a good reference, they may want to follow the United States to play false, it is better to cooperate with China and Russia to be real, so that not only can promote their own development, but also maintain a relatively independent status between major powers.
Take the Belt and Road Initiative as an example, more than 140 countries and more than 30 international organizations have signed cooperation agreements, and these countries have gained huge benefits in infrastructure, trade and investment through their participation in the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative.
Mongolia country has gone through a lot of ups and downs, in the 13th century Genghis Khan established a large empire across Europe and Asia, but by the end of the 17th century Mongolia it became a vassal state of the Qing Dynasty, in 1911 the foreign Mongolia declared independence, but it was not until 1921 that it really got rid of Chinese control, and then became a satellite of the Soviet Union, and did not achieve real independence until 1990.
This history tells us that Mongolia is well aware of the cruelty of the great power game, and it does not want to become a vassal of any big power, but wants to seek its own development space in the cracks, which is why Mongolia has always pursued a "third neighbor" policy, trying to find a balance outside of China and Russia.
However, the reality tells us that the geographical location determines that Mongolia cannot completely get rid of the influence of China and Russia, and the data shows that in 2022, Mongolia's exports to China accounted for 87% of its total exports, and imports to Russia accounted for 28.2% of total imports. This economic dependence determines that Mongolia must maintain good relations with China and Russia.
The concept of the "China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor" proposed by him was actually put forward as early as 2014, when the heads of state of China, Russia and Mongolia reached a consensus at the meeting in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, the core of this economic corridor is to connect Mongolia's "steppe road" development strategy with China's "Belt and Road" initiative and Russia's trans-Eurasian corridor plan.
The construction of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor is actually building a new Eurasian land bridge, which will not only benefit the three countries, but also have a positive impact on the economic development of the entire Eurasian continent, and it can become an important link connecting Asia and Europe and promote the economic integration process of the Eurasian continent.
This choice does not mean that Mongolia completely tilts towards China and Russia, but rather finds its own balance in the great power game. It wants to use the economic strength of China and Russia to promote its own development, and at the same time maintain a certain degree of independence, and this balancing act can be said to be the wisdom of small countries to survive among large countries.
What do you think of these three sentences of Oyun Erden? Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comment area.
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Wu Xinchun2024-10-17What the United States wants, Mongolia gave China, Oyun Erden said 3 sentences, setting the tone for Sino-Mongolian relations
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