Everyone found that no, after the market retraced to the 5-day line on October 10, it began to walk out of the trend of sandwich biscuits, three yang and three yin! This up-and-down trend was highlighted in Wednesday afternoon's "Over the Bear Bull! A-shares out of the monkey market! Tomorrow morning, I hope to end this round of pullback! In the article, Jing Yang mentioned to everyone that this is the monkey market often referred to by old stockholders, and it is also a normal trend after the sharp rise and fall are calm.
Although three of the last 6 trading days have closed out of the yang line, today's mid-yang line is very special, which may mean that this round of retracement and washing market is over, so it is worth everyone's attention!
Jing Yang will first talk to you about why today's market can buck the trend and strengthen against the background of the sharp drop in concept stocks last night and the poor performance of the GDP data of the Bureau of Statistics in the third quarter? Then let's talk about the role of this bullish candlestick today!
Let's start with the opening. Judging from the time-sharing chart, the market opened slightly lower today, and before 10 o'clock, it has maintained a weak shock trend, and there are signs of making up for the gap downward. The reason for the low opening of the market was mentioned to you in this morning's [A-share fierce news], because the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell sharply last night, although the index fell sharply and the overall trend of A-shares on Thursday, but because the index fell by more than 4% significantly more than the A-share decline on Thursday, it will more or less have a negative impact on the opening trend of A-shares on Friday. In addition, yesterday's market closed out of the bald head of the negative line, which also indicates that the short-selling momentum has not yet been fully released, which will cause the entire market to open this morning to be shaky!
Before 10 o'clock, the market has maintained a weak shock trend, but after 10 o'clock, the amplitude has expanded significantly!
From 10 o'clock to 10:15 o'clock, in this quarter of an hour, the decline of the market expanded significantly, and it did not stop falling until it retraced to around 3153! So in the past 15 minutes, why will the market change downward, and why will it stop falling around 3153?
I don't know if you have noticed, but this morning the Bureau of Statistics released the economic report card for the first three quarters of this year. According to preliminary calculations, the GDP in the first three quarters was 949746 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% at constant prices. Quarterly, GDP grew by 5.3 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, 4.7 percent in the second quarter, and 4.6 percent in the third quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP grew by 0.9% in the third quarter.
It can be said that the GDP performance in the third quarter was very poor, and there was a gradual downward trend in the first three quarters. GDP growth was the highest in the first quarter of 5.3%, and the growth rate of 4.7% in the second quarter dragged GDP down to around 5% in the first half of the year. By the third quarter, it had shrunk further to around 4.6% and dragged GDP growth from 5% to 4.8% in the first three quarters.
Obviously, this set of data is performing very poorly, and it is far from the economic growth target set by the top management at the beginning of the year, and the time of the release of this set of data is exactly 10 o'clock this morning!
Comparing the trend of the market at 10 o'clock this morning, it can be found that after the disclosure of the negative data, some investors chose to sell immediately after the data landed because of the poor performance of the data, which led to the decline of the market in the 15 minutes after 10 o'clock.
So why did it stop falling around 10:15, 3153? There are three reasons for this:
First, from the technical point of view, 3153 is the upper edge of the gap on September 30, in the article in recent days, Jingyang has talked to you many times, after the market fell below the 5-day line and the 10-day line, there are two more critical support levels below, the first support level is the gap on September 30, and the second support level is the 20-day line further down. So this morning, the market can stop falling near 3153, which is actually a gap to give support!
Second, before the important negative landing, the stock market continued to fall, and after the important negative landing, the stock market stopped falling and rebounded! This trend can be understood by old stockholders, and it is the result of the expected landing. The opposite of this trend is the good landing to see the light die, before the release of the good stock price continued to rise, good as soon as the public, the stock price did not rise but fell, or rose and fell.
Third, the lack of air forces below gives the bulls a chance to counterattack! As mentioned above, after the 10-point data landed, the market responded to a pullback, but it only fell to near the support level and did not continue to fall, and the decline was not large, only about 15 points. This shows that there are not many funds that choose to sell after the data is bearish, which gives greater confidence to the bottom-buying funds.
Of course, if it is only the data negative landing and technical support, I am afraid that it can only make the market stop falling near 3153, which is not enough for the market to have a strong blowout behind! In Jingyang's view, today's sharp rise after 10:15 is also the result of several factors:
Judging from the news: Today, the central bank, the State Administration of Financial Regulation, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly held a symposium on the implementation of financial incremental policies by financial institutions. It can be said that today's symposium on financial institutions is a smaller version of the press conference of the State Council Information Office of 924, although the three major authorities did not release as many benefits as before, but also gave the entire market greater confidence. In particular, the central bank, Pan Gongsheng, made it clear that it is expected to take the opportunity to further reduce the deposit reserve ratio by 0.25-0.5 percentage points in the fourth quarter. Recently, the Fed's expectations for a rate cut in November have dropped sharply, which has compressed the macro adjustment space of the mainland central bank to a certain extent. Therefore, President Pan Gongsheng's speech is equivalent to giving the market a reassurance!
From the perspective of funds: In this morning's [A-share news], Jingyang also mentioned to everyone the subscription volume of the CSI A500ETF in the past two days. In the process of the continuous decline of the market, there are still a large number of funds pouring into the CSI A500ETF against the trend, and the first batch of 10 CSI A500ETF shares have increased by nearly 10 billion shares, and the scale has increased from 20 billion yuan to 28.178 billion yuan! This shows that although the overall market trend has been weak recently, over-the-counter funds still have greater enthusiasm for the A-share market, otherwise they would not have increased their positions significantly when they continued to fall. When the willingness of off-site funds to buy the bottom is strong, the on-site funds will be considered more when selling. This is probably also the reason why the shorting momentum is not strong after the data is bearish this morning.
From a fundamental point of view: the GDP data released by the Bureau of Statistics today showed that the GDP growth rate in the first three quarters fell from 5% to 4.8%, because the growth rate in the third quarter was only 4.6%. In many recent articles, Jing Yang has mentioned to you that official media such as the People's Daily have twice mentioned in the past half a month that they will complete the economic growth target set by the top management at the beginning of the year, that is to say, there is a high probability that the economic growth rate for the whole year will still stabilize at about 5%. In this way, GDP growth in the fourth quarter will only reach 5.6% to achieve the target set at the beginning of the year. In Jingyang's view, the expectation of a sharp economic upturn in the fourth quarter is the strongest support for this round of market, and it is also the confidence that a large number of funds dare to enter the market after today's data is negative!
From a technical point of view: according to Jingyang's recent analysis, the market continued to pull back, falling below the 5-day line and then breaking through the 10-day line. Below the 5-day and 10-day lines, the first support is the September 30 gap, and the second is the 20-day line further down. In the past few days, the market has been stable above the gap support level and below the 5-day line pressure level, which can be described as hanging by a thread! Today, Jingyang is also very worried that the market will fill the gap, because once the gap is filled, there is a high probability that it will continue to slide to the 20-day line, in that case, the decline will expand significantly, because the 20-day line is still near the 3000-point integer mark. Therefore, the significance of holding the gap is very large, only by holding the gap, the market can regain the 5-day line to stop falling, and break through the 10-day line to complete the weak to strong!
At the beginning of this article, Jing Yang said to everyone that today's yang line is of great significance, because technically, the market once again broke through the 5-day line, reversing the pattern of being suppressed by the 5-day line in the previous days and weakening unilaterally, and at the same time, it also temporarily got rid of the risk of the market filling the gap!
The only regret of today's whole trend is that the market rose and fell back, and did not regain the 10-day line. However, the GEM index next door has risen even more, and has stood on the 10-day line ahead of the broader market. The trading volume has also increased from 1.3 trillion in the previous days to 2 trillion, indicating that the volume of bottom-buying funds is not small.
As for the trend of the market next week, and how will the hot spots in the market be distributed next week? In the weekend's article, Jingyang will share with you further!