Disclaimer: The content of this article is written by quoting network materials combined with personal opinions, and the reference information source has been marked at the end of the article, please be aware.
Norwegian scholar Johan Galtung is famous for his successful prediction of the collapse of the Soviet Union, and has attracted countless attention in the international academic and public opinion circles. And he once again made a bold prediction that the United States would face a major crisis or even collapse from 2020 to 2025, which instantly attracted widespread global attention.
What kind of unique analytical perspective and basis does this scholar have to make such a shocking prediction? Is it alarmist, or is it insightful?
Successfully predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union
In 1980, the Soviet Union was powerful on the international stage, powerful and militarily capable of rivaling the United States, and had extensive global influence.
However, at such a seemingly prosperous moment, John Galton threw out a startling prediction: the Soviet Union would collapse within a decade. This sounded unbelievable at the time, and many people thought it was just a fantasy. But Galton was not just talking, he had his own in-depth analysis of the internal situation in the Soviet Union.
He pointed out that there were several major structural contradictions within the Soviet Union. Economically, the Soviet Union exploited the satellite countries of Eastern Europe, and a large amount of resources were transferred to the Soviet Union, which made the Eastern European countries dissatisfied. At the level of military control, the Soviet Union exercised strict control over its satellite countries, limiting the space for these countries to exercise their military autonomy in all aspects.
Eastern European countries had to comply with Soviet directives in many key areas such as military development and military decision-making, and it was difficult for them to have independent military planning and freedom of action. In the long run, this long-suppressed situation led to a growing anti-Soviet sentiment in the Eastern European countries.
Central Asia's population is growing rapidly, but resource allocation and development opportunities are relatively inadequate. With the development of their own economies, Ukraine and other union republics began to yearn for more economic autonomy, and were no longer willing to completely obey the unified deployment of the Soviet central government, and centrifugal tendencies gradually appeared.
The contradictions between urban and rural areas are prominent. The collective farm system implemented in the Soviet Union seriously frustrated the peasants' enthusiasm for production. Farmers work hard but find it difficult to get commensurate rewards, rural development lags far behind that of cities, and the gap between urban and rural areas continues to widen.
Corruption is rampant within the party, and the privileged classes enjoy far more favorable treatment than ordinary people, which greatly undermines the legitimacy and credibility of the socialist system in the hearts of the people.
The communist ideals advocated by the Soviet Union are very beautiful, but in reality, there is a big gap between the people's living standards and the degree of social fairness, which makes the people's confidence in the country's development gradually lost.
In 1991, the Soviet Union really collapsed, and Galton's prophecy came true. However, some scholars have a different view, arguing that Galton's analysis focuses more on the long-standing structural contradictions of the Soviet Union, and does not pay enough attention to the key events and unexpected factors in the specific historical process that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Bold prophecies about the United States
In 2000, Gartung turned his research lens to the United States, and for the first time boldly predicted that the United States would suffer a major crisis and even collapse between 2020 and 2025. In his 2009 book, The Collapse of the American Empire: Past, Present, and Future, he provides an in-depth and systematic account of this view, dissecting the reasons for America's possible collapse in many different dimensions.
In terms of economic dimensions, the gap between rich and poor in the United States has reached staggering proportions. A very small number of wealthy people have a firm grip on huge wealth and live in extreme luxury; In stark contrast, large numbers of ordinary people are struggling to make ends meet and struggle on the brink of poverty.
Moreover, the United States has long relied on a debt-based economic model, and the government has continued to borrow to keep things running. This economic model has a fragile foundation and is difficult to sustain for a long time, and once the chain of capital supply is broken, the US economy will inevitably fall into a huge crisis vortex.
In the military field, the United States has built military bases all over the world, and its tentacles are all over the world. At the same time, it has been mired in many wars for a long time, and it is difficult to extricate itself. From the war in Iraq to the war in Afghanistan, successive wars not only cost a huge amount of money, but also led to a large number of casualties, seriously overdrawing the national strength of the United States.
In the political field, the two parties in the United States are seriously antagonistic and politically polarized is prominent. The Democratic and Republican parties are deadlocked on many policies, resulting in inefficient government decision-making and policy deadlocks.
Ethnic and cultural conflicts are also a major problem facing the United States. With the development of society, the proportion of white people in the United States has gradually declined, and diverse cultures have collided with each other. Identity politics conflicts continue to intensify, and conflicts between different racial and cultural groups occur from time to time, ranging from racial discrimination incidents to social protests, which seriously affect social stability.
In terms of ecology and resources, climate change has led to the intensification of natural disasters in the United States, with frequent occurrences of hurricanes, floods, and wildfires, which have brought huge losses to the American society and economy. At the same time, the United States is dependent on energy, and fluctuations in the international energy market will have an impact on the U.S. economy, and energy security is at risk.
In today's world, the trend of multipolarization is becoming more and more obvious, and the unipolar order that the United States once built has been weakened. The traditional alliance system has also loosened, and allies have begun to re-examine their relationship with the United States according to their own interests, and the United States' voice and influence in international affairs have gradually declined.
The "collapse" of the United States, as described by Gartung, does not refer to the territorial division of the United States, but to the end of American hegemony. This could manifest itself in the loss of the dollar's status as a global reserve currency, which would take a heavy hit to the U.S. dominance in the global economy. Militarily, the long-established system of allies has disintegrated, and its influence in international military affairs has declined significantly.
The Meaning and Controversy of Prophecy
Galton's prophecy is significant. He does not want to give an exact timetable for the collapse of the United States, but rather aims to reveal the deep-seated structural contradictions within the United States. He hopes that through such a prophecy, the attention of American society and the international community to these issues will be awakened, and all parties will be prompted to take action to deal with possible crises.
And he emphasized that the "collapse" of the United States is not an overnight thing, but a gradual process, which reminds people to continue to pay attention to the dynamics of American society, economy, politics and other aspects.
His prediction has also sparked a lot of criticism and controversy in the academic community. Some scholars believe that his analysis is biased. For example, on the economic front, although the United States has a gap between the rich and the poor and a debt problem, the US economy has strong resilience and self-regulation, and it cannot simply be assumed that these problems will inevitably lead to the collapse of the United States.
However, despite the controversy, Garton's view provides a new perspective for understanding the crisis in the United States, allowing us to analyze the challenges facing the United States in today's international situation from a broader and more comprehensive perspective.
epilogue
John Gartung has demonstrated his profound insight into international relations, from his successful prediction of the collapse of the Soviet Union to his bold prediction of the collapse of the United States. His views give us a clear view of the structural contradictions hidden behind the rise and fall of great powers. Whether or not his predictions about the United States ultimately come true, the series of structural problems facing the United States cannot be ignored.
Information sources:
State of World Development 2017, Development Research Center of the State Council
John Galtong, translated by Ruan Yuexiang, The Collapse of the American Empire: Past, Present and Future, People's Publishing House, 2013
(Disclaimer) The process and pictures described in the article are from the Internet, and this article aims to advocate positive social energy and no vulgar and other bad guidance. If it involves copyright or character infringement issues, please contact us in time, and we will delete the content as soon as possible! If there is any suspicious part of the incident, delete or change it immediately after contacting!