Wind power generation. Photo/unsplash
Economic development is a process of industrial structure upgrading, and achieving carbon neutrality is essentially a process of economic development mode change.
Ge Quansheng, director of the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, believes that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Beijing will take more effective measures to reduce emissions and reduce carbon, ensure that carbon emissions are stable and falling, simultaneously carry out carbon neutrality path research, formulate special action plans, and strive to be a "bellwether" in achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Beijing should strive to integrate the reform of the energy structure into the transformation of the industrial structure, vigorously develop green industries, and change the energy structure and achieve carbon neutrality in the process of development.
So, under the goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan, how can Beijing practice carbon neutrality? What are the paths to achieve carbon neutrality in Beijing's key industries and industries?
In the future, China's carbon neutrality will be highly dependent on new energy technologies such as hydrogen energy
According to the Beijing Statistical Yearbook 2020, beijing's total energy consumption in 2019 was 73.6 million tons of standard coal, including 16.914 million tons of living consumption including building heating, 15.338 million tons of transportation, warehousing and postal services, and 11.629 million tons of manufacturing.
It can be seen that the key industries that Need to Be Paid Attention to Beijing's Carbon Neutrality Goal are the energy industry, the construction industry and the transportation industry.
Ge Quansheng said that at present, the energy consumption of Beijing's output value of 10,000 yuan has dropped from 0.872 tons of standard coal in 2005 to 0.230 tons of standard coal in 2019, higher than the level of the United States, reaching the level of low-energy countries such as Japan, and the space for improving energy efficiency is small, and the key task in the future is to adjust the energy consumption structure. In the future, China's carbon neutrality will be highly dependent on major breakthroughs in new energy technologies such as hydrogen energy, and Beijing's strong scientific and technological strength should lead China's future new energy technology reform. Energy structure adjustment can focus on hydrogen energy, and strive to break through the key technologies that restrict the development of hydrogen energy, such as low-cost fossil energy hydrogen production, seawater hydrogen production, and renewable energy hydrogen production, and achieve regional carbon neutrality in advance through the application of low-cost hydrogen energy technology, and provide innovative solutions for the whole country to achieve carbon neutrality.
In Ge Quansheng's view, the general direction of carbon emission reduction in Beijing's energy sector is to vigorously develop new energy and significantly increase the proportion of new energy sources such as hydrogen energy. Beijing has little potential for the development of wind power, photovoltaic and biomass energy, and should take the road of developing hydrogen energy.
Wang Ke, a researcher at the National Institute of Development and Strategic Studies at Chinese Min University, said that the difficulty in reducing emissions in Beijing's energy sector is that the heating system will develop in the direction of low-carbon in the future on the basis of the coal-to-gas conversion, such as gradually increasing the replacement of electric energy.
In 2019, building emissions accounted for 45.56% of Beijing's carbon emission structure, which is the industry with the largest proportion of carbon emission structure.
Chen Dejin, chief engineer of Beijing Huamao Property Management Co., Ltd., told Xinjing Think Tank that for the development and design of new building projects, it is necessary to consider the energy conservation and emission reduction problems of later operations from the planning stage, that is, the problems of layering, sub-household cooling and heating load and total building cooling and heating load. Because the design of the building façade is directly related to the cold and heat load of the building envelope, it is particularly important to use what kind of building materials with low thermal conductivity.
In addition, in Chen Dejin's view, the energy-saving design of mechanical and electrical engineering inside the building is also critical. The HVAC profession involving the calculation and distribution of specific loads can only make a good air conditioning system design if the calculation and distribution of loads on specific floors and rooms are very accurate. The wind system should also be balanced, due to the characteristics of air compressibility, the parameters change greatly. Therefore, the wind system is not easy to be too long. So as not to cause the unit to full pressure on the unit is too large, the noise is large.
In the field of transportation, the promotion of motor vehicle electrification has made a huge contribution to the carbon emission reduction of transportation, and is the most core and potential way to achieve carbon neutrality in urban transportation. Liu Ying, director of the Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction Center of the Beijing Transportation Development Research Institute, said in an interview with the Beijing News before that the proportion of green travel in the central urban area of Beijing has reached 73.1%, and in the short term, there will not be much room for growth, so carbon emission reduction should have more ideas to adapt to the development of transportation in megacities.
Liu Ying believes that the transformation of vehicle energy plays an important role in achieving Beijing's goals. At present, the scale of new energy vehicles in Beijing has reached 400,000, and the goal in 2025 is to reach 2 million, accounting for 30% from 7%. However, it should also be recognized that the process of electrification of motor vehicles cannot be "quick and short-term", and the basic work needs to be done well.
Low carbon is the trend of the times, but emission reduction cannot be one-size-fits-all
Ge Quansheng introduced to the Xinjing think tank that at present, Beijing takes the lead in achieving a stable decline after the peak of carbon as an important starting point for practicing the new development concept and integrating into the new development pattern during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, and takes the planning of carbon neutrality as an important support for achieving high-quality development and promoting the green transformation of economic and social development.
Industries such as energy, construction and transportation are not only the main sectors of carbon reduction, but also occupy a large proportion of the national economy. How to balance low-carbon and economic development is a problem that Beijing has to face to achieve its carbon neutrality goals.
Ge Quansheng said that low-carbon development is the trend of the times, but emission reduction must not be one-size-fits-all. In 2020, the total carbon dioxide emissions of gas boiler heating in Beijing will be about 20.33 million tons, accounting for 16% of the city's total emissions. The development of heat pump heating system is an effective way to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the industry, but the heating area in the city's urban area is 895 million square meters, of which the combined heat and power heating area is 236 million square meters, and the gas heating area is 615 million square meters.
In Ge Quansheng's view, at present, the number of motor vehicles in Beijing has reached 6.08 million, of which the number of new energy vehicles is about 400,000, and the use of new energy vehicles to replace fuel vehicles also needs to be gradually promoted under the premise of continuously improving the charging infrastructure, which cannot bring serious interference to economic development and normal production and life.
Zhang Jiutian, executive director and researcher of the China Collaborative Innovation Center for Green Development at Beijing Normal University, said that Beijing's industrial structure has been continuously optimized, the de-coal plan has been basically realized, and the current economic growth points are mostly high-tech industries with low energy consumption, advanced technology and high added value; overall, low-carbon and economic development do not conflict, but are driven by synergy. To balance low-carbon and economic development, we must still pay attention to strictly controlling the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions in the process of promoting the development of high-tech industries, accelerating the quality upgrading of industries, especially the manufacturing industry, and strictly controlling the growth of carbon emissions in the manufacturing industry.
For the use of low-carbon technology, Xie Chao, executive general manager of CICC Research Institute, also believes that technological progress is the key to achieving carbon neutrality. Simulations of the model found that technological advances offset or even outweighed the negative impact of carbon pricing on economic growth. A comprehensive approach that relies on technological advances can take into account the goals of economic growth and carbon neutrality.
The first task is to clarify the carbon neutrality timetable and roadmap
This year's Beijing Municipal Government Work Report proposes that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Beijing's carbon emissions should be stable and decreasing, and carbon neutrality should take solid steps. The main work in 2021 also mentioned that Beijing should highlight the "dual control" of carbon emission intensity and total amount, and clarify the carbon neutrality timetable and roadmap.
The "green development" theme flower bed in the southeast corner of Xidan. Beijing News reporter Wang Zicheng photographed
Ge Quansheng said that Beijing's carbon neutrality path during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period can focus on three aspects, one is to gradually get rid of the energy system dominated by fossil energy, vigorously develop emerging technologies such as hydrogen energy, microgrids, and direct current, and accelerate the establishment of a modern energy system with renewable energy and clean electricity as the core. Second, we must take technological change as the lead and improve the energy efficiency level in the fields of construction, transportation, and industry, including: accelerating the development of new energy vehicles, phasing out fuel vehicles, and promoting the electrification or hydrogenization of transportation; promoting technologies such as heat pumps, green lighting, and green buildings, and building zero-carbon buildings; promoting green manufacturing, and promoting the large-scale utilization and electrification of hydrogen energy and renewable energy in the industrial field. Third, we must vigorously cultivate low-carbon and zero-carbon green industries, accelerate the development of new generation information industries such as big data, Internet of Things, and 5G, and promote the coupling of zero-carbon new technologies and emerging industries with the help of information technologies such as industrial Internet of Things and AI.
Zhu Tong, director of the Energy Economy Office of the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that in order to avoid "sports" carbon reduction and lead carbon reduction by administrative means in the process of achieving carbon neutrality in Beijing, it is necessary to truly cultivate and develop low-carbon industries based on low-carbon technologies, rather than simply through end-of-pipe governance, closure of production capacity and other ways to achieve carbon reduction, which is the fundamental balance between the two.
In Zhang Jiutian's view, Beijing's primary task is to clarify the carbon neutrality timetable and road map, such as carrying out the city's carbon emission peak assessment, improving the city's carbon neutrality action plan, actively promoting the carbon neutrality demonstration, and achieving the carbon neutrality goal of the Winter Olympics; the second is to implement the "dual control" of carbon emission intensity and total amount, focus on the key areas of urban operation, develop green buildings, build a low-carbon transportation system, and enhance the carbon sink capacity of the ecosystem; the third is to integrate the requirements of carbon neutrality strategic goals into the overall urban planning and improve the low-carbon standards of urban construction. Build a green and resilient city; the fourth is to improve the carbon emission trading system and promote the construction of a national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction market.
In addition, in terms of industrial structure optimization and adjustment, we will continue to strengthen low-carbon technological innovation, actively cultivate new momentum for green development, and strictly control the growth of carbon emissions in the manufacturing industry.
Wang Ke believes that Beijing, as a city with a high level of economic development in China, mainly emphasizes the optimization of the industrial structure by increasing the proportion of the output value of the service industry in the three industries in the low-carbon plan. The service industry generally has relatively low energy intensity and carbon emission intensity, so vigorously developing the service industry can reduce energy consumption and emissions per unit of GDP. For Beijing, it should develop a distinctive low-carbon service industry in combination with its own conditions, such as focusing on cultivating low-carbon service industries and encouraging technological innovation.
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