TaiLing Zhu Wenqing: The next 3 years will be a big year for lithium battery light vehicles

【Original】【Gaogong Lithium Battery Annual Meeting】Tailing Zhu Wenqing: The next 3 years are the big year of lithium battery light vehicle wind outlet

Light vehicle | The article is from: Gaogong Lithium Power Grid

2020-12-22 09:51:56 Read:560

From the perspective of trends and wind directions, the development of lithium battery light vehicles at home and abroad in the future 2021-2023 has outlined a clear picture of consumption growth. Standing on the lithium electrification outlet of light vehicles, the head of the main engine factory and lithium battery enterprises took the lead in benefiting.

On December 16-18, the 2020 Gaogong Lithium Battery & Electric Vehicle Annual Conference (concurrent activities: Gaogong Lithium Battery 10th Anniversary Celebration and Gaogong Golden Globe Award Ceremony) was opened at the Hyatt Regency Shenzhen Airport Hotel. Nearly 1,000 senior executives of the lithium battery industry chain gathered to talk about the new blueprint of the industry in the next decade.

In the special session of the lithium electrification storm of light vehicles (2) of [Xingheng Power Supply Title], Zhu Wenqing, general manager of the Tailing Lithium Battery Division, made a keynote speech entitled "The Development Trend and Trend direction of Lithium Electric Vehicles".

Zhu Wenqing pointed out that the domestic electric light vehicle market is divided into electric bicycles (including lithium trams), electric light motorcycles and electric motorcycles, in 2019, the market share of electric light vehicles is about 36 million, and the domestic market ownership of electric vehicles at this stage is between 200 million and 250 million units, due to the introduction of the new national standard policy for domestic electric vehicles in April 2019, some consumers will turn to the market share of electric bicycles.

Since non-national standard or old national standard vehicles account for 80% of the market, and the domestic governments set the time limit for the use of old national standard products, its annual growth in the next 2-3 years will increase to 50-60 million (including exchange products) Market capacity.

"At present, the challenge facing the domestic market is the cost performance and safety performance of lead-acid and lithium batteries." Zhu Wenqing stressed.

It is worth noting that at present, lithium electric vehicles account for about 15% of the domestic electric vehicle market, but with the development of shared motorcycles, the next 3 years of shared bicycles have an annual growth share of 3-5 million units, so the market capacity of domestic lithium electric vehicles in the next three years will exceed 10 million units.

"In the next 5 years, the market demand for shared lithium trams will increase by about 30 million." Zhu Wenqing added.

In terms of overseas markets, the main market for lithium trams in Europe is mainly lithium battery mopeds, and in 2019, the market share of lithium battery mopeds in Europe exceeded 3 million (accounting for 25% of the total number of bicycles), and the market price was between 1500-2000 euros. Due to the active promotion of green and environmentally friendly vehicles in Recent Years, the share of lithium-ion bicycles in Europe has gradually increased (this year, due to government financial subsidies, the increase has reached 2-3 times).

Zhu Wenqing further said that and lithium battery mopeds are the main market products in Western Europe, which will grow to 5-6 million market capacity in the next 2 years, accounting for between 40-50% of the total number of bicycles in Europe, mainly exported to the EU in the form of bulk SKD.

However, it should be noted that due to the impact of the EU's anti-dumping policy, its tariffs on the complete vehicles of domestic lithium tram companies are between 35-80%, so each enterprise only has spare parts or semi-finished products exported, and then assembles the operation mode of European OEM factories.

The Electric Bicycle Market in the Americas is divided into north and South American markets, North America is the U.S. market as the leading lithium battery moped products; South America is based on Brazil, Mexico, Panama and other markets with lithium battery and lead-acid electric vehicle hybrid products. In 2018, the market share of electric bicycles in the Americas was about one million, and last year, due to the impact of US trade frictions, China's electric bicycle exports to the US market shrank by 30% (about 700,000 units).

From April to June 2020, the export of electric bicycles to the United States increased by 300-400% over the same period (affected by the epidemic), and the South American market increased by 2-3 times the year-on-year increase in incremental electric vehicles. It is estimated that the overall increase in the product of electric bicycles in the Americas in the next two years will be between 2 million and 3 million units (the market price is 1000-1500 US dollars).

It is worth being wary that there will be instability due to the impact of the US government's trade policy.

"The light vehicle lithium electrification storm has arrived, really grasp the three years of 2021, 2022, 2023, who can grasp this outlet, who will ride the wind." Zhu Wenqing said.