◎Zhiyou College (ID: zhiyoucf88)
◎ Author | Lucas
Most of 2021 has passed, this year's market volatility has continued, the industry with high gains has doubled, some have fallen more, and there are -20% losses.
Zhiyou often asks: "Is there any investment, long-term stability, and high probability of making money?" ”
That must be the investment of national fortunes.
Take 100,000 yuan as an example to share the investment logic and how to choose products. The article is not long, it is recommended to read it.
How is it arranged?
Investment principal: 100,000 yuan
Investment period: 3 years
Ratio of shares, bonds and cash: 7 : 2 : 1.
That is, the ratio of equity assets (stocks or partial stock funds), bond assets (bonds or bond funds), and cash assets (cash, money funds, demand wealth management, etc.) is 7:2:1.
1) Why is it recommended to spend $100,000?
Quite simply, a little bit of scale gains will make people motivated and feel the change in mood.
If you only put a few hundred, a thousand, even the most radical combination, the daily return is only dozens of yuan, you will not have much feeling when you look at it, so it is difficult to perceive your own risk tolerance.
On a large-scale investment, there will be hundreds of floating gains/losses on the book a day, and your emotions are more likely to perceive risks and returns.
2) Why is it recommended for 3 years?
If you want to experience the stock market cycle, The big cycle of bulls and bears in China is 7 or 8 years, even if I say so, it is difficult for most people to stick to it.
If you want to experience the ups and downs of the stock market, a year is actually too short, for example, it is easy to make money in 2020, you may be overconfident, thanks to your ability to select stocks, but in fact, most of them are brought by the bull market.
So, we recommend that you make a medium-term investment plan, at least 3 years.
In the past history of A-shares, bull markets have often not exceeded three years.
In 3 years, I can at least go through a small bull and bear market.
Some friends may ask: What if the A-share is going to go slowly?
In the US stock market, before the slow bull, there is also a long period of "cattle but not three". After slowing down the bull, it is still a small cycle of about 3 years, and there will be a slight decline.
Behind this is mainly every economic improvement cycle, generally not more than three years, such as monetary policy.
3) Why is it recommended that the ratio of stocks, bonds and cash to these three types of assets be 7:2:1?
Here it is mainly pushed backwards by the ratio of cash positions to bond positions.
The purpose of this investment is to understand their own investment style, understand different types of products, and expand their circle of ability as much as possible. Therefore, it is best to have configurations for all three categories.
First, the cash position is at least 10%.
If you take 100,000 yuan of investment, then the cash asset must have 10,000 yuan. At this time, you may wish to ask yourself this question: In addition to The Balance Treasure and WeChat Coin Pass, do you know which cash management products with higher returns? We will also reveal the answer later in this article.
By allocating this 10% cash, after learning to choose a good product, you can put all the reserves at home here.
Secondly, bond assets, the position is at least 20%.
Why allocate bonds?
1, the combination of stock and debt, said many times. We have run a drawdown before, and after the combination of equity and debt, the return of the fund portfolio is stable and high.
2, the mentality is more stable, can hold. 3 years for the cycle, the time is not short, even if it is a medium-term investment, there is still uncertainty in the stock market. A small amount of debt base can reduce volatility and make you more confident to hold.
3, bond assets also have a hidden role, you can use it as a second cash reserve. For example, when you encounter a certain market low, you can sell the bond fund and buy equity assets.
Finally, 100,000 yuan, the remaining 70% of the funds, are used to invest in equity assets, such as buying stocks and buying partial stock funds.
In general: different assets, different positions, each performing its own duties.
Next, let's take a rough look at the expected benefits of this solution:
Here, we can take the 14th Five-Year Plan as a reference.
Although the 14th Five-Year Plan did not provide quantitative indicators for GDP growth, the goal of common prosperity was advanced from the middle of the twentieth century to 2035.
Therefore, in fact, the GDP growth rate will not be much lower than before, otherwise the goals in the 14th Five-Year Plan will not be achieved.
70% of the stock position, mainly focusing on the income of the capital market. According to historical statistics, plus stock dividends, the average annualized yield of the CSI 300 Index is about 10%. If you can pick a quality fund manager, strive for an annualization of 15%-20%.
20% bond position, through fixed income products, for the entire portfolio of defense, such as bond funds, long-term calculation, the average annualized yield is about 3%-4%, if it is a partial debt hybrid fund, the yield can be higher.
10% of the cash position, as a reserve, yields between 2% and 3%, which is close to the yield of the monetary fund.
Combining these three, your 100,000 pieces has an annualized yield of 10%-15%. In three years, you can earn more than 30,000 yuan. It's okay to outperform inflation.
How to choose a product?
Cash assets: (Specific operation: one-time purchase)
1) Monetary Fund.
Select monetary funds with high returns and stable 7-day annualized returns.
In addition to Balance Treasure and Change Pass, you can buy high-quality monetary funds on apps such as Slow and Egg Roll Fund.
Here are three criteria:
First, the larger the scale, the better, and the redemption pressure is small.
Second, the more stable the income, the better.
Third, the longer the establishment time, the better.
2) Convertible bonds are new.
You can take two or three thousand yuan to the stock app to play new bonds, insist on fighting, long-term income is quite good, this year's convertible bond issuance is large, and many listing on the first day of the rise of more than 20%, our team frequently has people to win. A colleague has already won four convertible bonds this year.
3) Bond assets: (Specific operation: one-time purchase)
It is recommended to allocate through bond funds, and the selection criteria mainly look at these three:
Looking at the scale of the debt base, the larger the better; it is best to be more than 500 million.
Second, looking at the proportion of institutional holders, about 20%-90% is appropriate.
Three look at the dispersion of positions, the choice of debt base is best not to reposition a few bonds, so as not to have the risk of stepping on the thunder.
It should be noted here that some bond funds fluctuate greatly because they hold a certain percentage of convertible bonds, which can indeed increase the income of the fund, but the fluctuations are also very large when the market is not good, so be sure to pay attention to this.
Equity assets: (buy on dips, gradually increase positions)
The choice of stock positions is relatively rich:
1) Broad-based index enhancement fund.
The broad-based index is matched with the CSI 300+ CSI 500 index fund and bought at 4:6, basically buying excellent enterprises in the large, medium, and small caps of A-shares.
Enhanced, that is, using some flexible means to make the fund return higher than the ordinary index.
For example, in the first half of this year, the CSI 500 Index Enhancement Fund that we introduced to you has risen by nearly 30% + in the latest year.
2) Active funds.
By choosing a good fund manager, give him the money and let him buy and sell stocks in our place. After all, if the principal is only 100,000 yuan, you can't buy too many stocks in high-growth industries. But buying funds lowers the threshold for buying high-quality companies.
In A-shares, at present, it is not difficult for excellent fund managers to outperform the market.
But if we choose the wrong one ourselves, we may cry for the next 2 or 3 years. Therefore, this is more demanding for investors.
We recommend that for a stock position of 70,000 yuan, part of it buys a enhanced index fund, and part of it buys an active fund.
In this way, you can not only share the dividends of the stock market as a whole, but also exercise your ability to select bases and enjoy excess gains (or losses) by investing in active funds.
The distribution of the more specific three types of assets is determined by you. You can combine this with your own risk tolerance.
According to this operation, we give the following reference scheme, which also lists specific products for your reference.
Investing in the direction of the economy in the long run is the right thing to do in the long run.
If you believe in the market, you can choose an index-enhanced fund.
If you want to strive for excess returns, you need to learn to pick a good fund manager and cross the bulls and bears.
Follow me and learn a financial tip every week.