These days, two things are very difficult. One is to create a hydrogen-water car that "can run with water", and the other is to invest in a set of reliable shops.
Many fans left messages in the background asking: Can shops invest?
Here we give a categorical but rigorous advice: ordinary people, do not invest in shops.
The following three aspects of the analysis, I hope to give you some help.
Don't go against trends
Whether it is Wu Xiaobo's year-end show or Luo Zhenyu's New Year's Eve speech, they will mention the word "trend" five times over and over again.
In a huge economy like China, seizing trends is often the fastest way to increase wealth, and vice versa, success against the trend must be extremely difficult.
We all know that the current trend is the Internet impacting physical stores, so how big is this impact, the small shops that have closed down on the side of the road have given you the answer, and the data presentation is even more energetic to the trend of the current era.
In recent years, online shopping consumption has maintained a spurt growth trend, even the year-on-year low in 2018, there is a 24% increase.
In the case of gdp annual growth rate of about 7%, where the annual increase in online shopping by dozens of percentage points comes from, there is no doubt that it can only be "grabbed" from physical stores, which is a very cruel reality.
Not only that, the proportion of online retail in social sales is also increasing year by year.
The increase of each point means a decline in the share of physical sales stores. Moreover, the proportion of online sales will only increase in the future.
Compared with physical stores, the model of online shopping is more in line with the laws of economics.
Leaving aside the comparison of the costs of the two sides, because the cost of obtaining traffic on the network platform and the cost of the rent of the physical store are now comparable, but the network can achieve full competition between the merchants and consumers, so that the goods show more favorable prices for buyers and sellers, while the physical stores do not have this advantage.
According to the "Blue Book of Circulation: China Business Development Report 2017" released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Financial and Economic Strategy, in the next 5 years, 1/3 of China's commodity trading market will be eliminated, 1/3 will be transformed into an experiential shopping mall with both batches and zeros, and 1/3 will successfully achieve online and offline docking.
The market where you invest in the shop is likely to be among the eliminated.
Therefore, in the face of the general trend of the Internet, the future of the shop is only a few choices such as new retail, catering, etc. Luckin Coffee is a model of physical store counterattack, but how many shop owners have the ability of Luckin Coffee? Most landlords don't care about business operations at all, but who bids high to whom?
As a result, once the store closes, the day-to-day vacancy period significantly reduces the store's ROI.
Don't go against money
The high tax on shops will directly lead to difficulties in changing hands.
First of all, the deed tax is different, we know that the deed tax of second-hand residential buildings for more than two years is generally 1%, but the deed tax of shops is generally 3-5% according to different regulations in various places.
Then there is the land value-added tax, which is different from the value-added tax, which is exempt from the land value-added tax for many residential buildings, but the land value-added tax for shops must be paid, and the progressive tax rate is implemented, which can reach up to 60% of the value-added amount.
Take the online second-hand shop calculator to calculate, suppose I invest in a set of 500,000 stores, sold at a price of 1 million, I need to pay a tax of 256,000 yuan, at the same time, the buyer also has to pay 61,300 yuan in taxes.
In general, the taxes and fees of the shops have basically reached more than 20% of the transfer price, and such a high burden, whether it is borne by the buyer or the seller, has greatly reduced the profits of both parties, and the liquidity of the shops has been greatly reduced.
Regarding rents, the situation of shops in recent years has also been relatively flat.
According to the "Midland Property Shenzhen Industrial and Commercial Shop Quarterly Report" recently released by Midland, the blue-chip price index of second-hand shops in Shenzhen was 177.80, which remained stable in the same period and rose slightly.
In today's rising house prices, the rent of second-hand blue-chip shops in Shenzhen has only risen by less than 5% in 3 years, and even cannot catch up with the speed of inflation, which is relatively loss-making for investment.
Moreover, this is still a blue-chip shop in the first-tier city of Shenzhen, if it is other ordinary shops, the rent may still fall.
According to zhongyuan real estate research reports, Shenzhen's first-hand commercial wholesale sales volume continued to decline from 2015 to 2018, and the supply in 2018 was only 341,000 square meters, down 18% from 2017, the lowest value in recent years.
That is to say, every year, a large Shenzhen city, all the newly opened businesses add up, there are three Wanda Plazas.
Don't go against the risks
It is reasonable to say that the shop should be stable and not lose, compared to the stock fund p2p is absolutely rock-solid, why is it still said that there is a risk?
Because, the traffic of shops is unstable.
Let's split the revenue of the store, which is nothing more than traffic multiplied by per capita purchasing power.
The shops next to the university have abundant traffic, but the purchasing power is insufficient, so there are many affordable small shops.
The shops next to the luxury community have average traffic, but the purchasing power is strong, so there are many children's training institutions.
The per capita purchasing power of an area is stable, but the traffic is changing rapidly.
In today's convenient transportation, college students find that the other side of the school has opened a more delicious food street, can decisively abandon their predecessors to find new friends, and the rich find that the training classes at the other end of the city have begun to teach kindergarten Python entry, without hesitation to send their children over for fear of falling behind.
The point is that China's modern urbanization is too fast, and the relocation of commercial centers is simply not a surprise. Take the new first-tier city of Wuhan, in the past, everyone liked to go to the old commercial streets such as Zhongnan, Simen, Asia Trade, Wuguang, etc., but now they are running to Optics Valley and Wuhan Tiandi.
Relying on the support of the location of the shop, the business will be intercepted at any time by a new commercial circle in the city, and even directly robbed of the business by the next street.
Moreover, in today's vigorous infrastructure construction, as long as a subway is dug up at the entrance of a shop to carry out a demolition, the messy construction site basically directly declares the death of the shop, even if the word "fire sale" is posted, it is possible to be blocked by the blue partition of the construction site.
Regarding investment and risk, moral hazard also has to be mentioned.
In China, there are financial market arbitrage everywhere, whether it is bad p2p illegal fundraising "harvesting hard-earned money", or Zhao Wei concealing company information "empty gloves white wolf", where there are people, there is greed.
Shop transactions are no exception, some custodial shops promise charters, developers pay rent on a monthly/quarterly/annual basis, you don't have to worry about not renting out and renting too low, everything is carried by the developer.
You can pay for a year or two, and you will find that the developer is gone. At this time, it dawned on me that the so-called "shops" of developers may just be scythes for cutting leeks.
Today, the per capita shopping mall area in many Chinese cities has exceeded 2 square meters, compared with 1 square meter in Japan and South Korea and 1.5 square meters in Hong Kong, which is already a surplus state.
Many developers know that there is a surplus of shops and insufficient demand, but they are still working hard to build bottom merchants in residential areas.
On the one hand, to cater to the requirements of urban planning and urban image, to do commercial gimmicks to get this residential land;
On the other hand, shops are several times more expensive than residential buildings (shenzhen vanke cloud city, peninsula city-state and other popular real estate shops can sell for 300,000 / ㎡), which brings huge profits, perhaps so that some developers, germinated the idea of harvesting a wave of investment in shops "rich people".
knot
We casually shop in the bottom business of all large and small areas, not real estate agents or education and training, not tobacco and alcohol side food, or beauty salons, or low consumption frequency, or small profit margins, vacancy rate is consistently high.
Under the current situation that large businesses have chosen to operate on their own and take all the winners, the fate of small street shops distributed to individual landlords is really bleak.
When we were inspecting Zhongshan, we saw the door of a suburban shop and actually dried up our clothes. This kind of desolate scene is not uncommon at all in China's second- and third-tier cities.
Therefore, it is still prudent to invest in shops.
Of course, it is not excluded that you are willing to spend a lot of time and energy and have the ability to pick a few high-yield shops, nor do you rule out that you just want to build a century-old shop like Tokyo's "Kiyokido" to do business and enjoy life.
However, now that the probability of shops buying the wrong one is large, ordinary people are still far away.