Investigators have determined that the U.S. Navy's Seawolf-class attack nuclear submarine, connecticut, hit an unknown seamount while diving in the South China Sea, causing the nuclear submarine to run aground underwater, according to a November 1 report on the website of the U.S. Naval Association. On October 2, after the collision accident of the "Connecticut" nuclear submarine in the South China Sea, the US military issued a brief statement in an opaque language after 5 days, and it was reluctant to disclose the details of the accident and always kept silent about the cause of the accident, causing widespread speculation and concern from the outside world. On November 4, the U.S. Navy's Seventh Fleet dismissed three naval personnel on the USS Connecticut, but the U.S. military has not yet explained how the USS Connecticut hit the hill, nor has it disclosed the extent of the damage to the submarine.
The US military's concealment of the collision incident of the "Connecticut" nuclear submarine has aroused people's imagination. Why did the US nuclear submarine collision occur? How many military deployments are hidden by the U.S. military in the South China Sea? Can the US plot in the South China Sea succeed? This edition invites three experts on the South China Sea to jointly resolve the situation.
Why did the US nuclear submarine collision occur?
More than a month has passed since the U.S. Navy's Seawolf-class attack submarine, the USS Connecticut, collided in the South China Sea. Combing through the beginning and end of the nuclear submarine collision incident, there has always been a cloud of doubt. U.S. Naval News reported that the impact caused moderate or mild injuries to some naval soldiers, with parts of the hull damaged, but the nuclear power of the nuclear submarine was not destroyed. The US Seventh Fleet issued a statement investigating the accident of the "Connecticut" nuclear submarine, saying that the object that collided with the submarine in the waters of the South China Sea was an "unknown submarine mountain.". In addition, the US military has not released more details of the incident.
Zhang Jie: Regarding the collision of the "Connecticut" nuclear submarine in the South China Sea, the official information released by the US military is very limited, which inevitably arouses suspicion from many parties. According to the information that has been made public, after the collision of the "Connecticut" nuclear submarine, it went to Guam to wait for repairs. Compared with the previous situation of the US Navy's "Fitzgerald" guided-missile destroyer in the South China Sea, the damage caused by this accident is still within the controllable range. In addition, from the handling of the U.S. Navy's nuclear submarine commanders, it can be inferred that the collision accident may be due to the complex environment on the seabed of the South China Sea and the error of judgment of the commanders.
In addition to the direct cause of the accident, the question worthy of attention and questioning in this accident is: Why did the US nuclear submarine come to the South China Sea? In recent years, the United States has greatly strengthened its intelligence activities in the South China Sea, using a variety of methods, including marine survey ships, P8A anti-submarine patrol aircraft, submarine vehicles, sensors, etc., to increase the reconnaissance and monitoring of the South China Sea through sea and air integration. The Pacific Deterrence Initiative, as involved in the U.S. National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021, proposes to strengthen U.S. deterrence capabilities against China in the South China Sea. Some data show that in recent years, the frequency and total number of US reconnaissance in the South China Sea have been very alarming. All these signs show that the United States is strengthening its military presence in the South China Sea in all directions. It can be inferred that one of the main purposes of the US nuclear submarines coming to the South China Sea may be to monitor the maritime activities of China's military forces.
Hu Zhiyong: The "Connecticut" nuclear submarine is one of the three most technologically advanced and expensive "Seawolf" class nuclear submarines in the United States, but it "hit the sea mountain" in the South China Sea, and a reasonable speculation is that the "Connecticut" nuclear submarine may have been to avoid monitoring, closed some of the submarine's functions, resulting in the inability to accurately identify the surrounding environment and collide. It is worth noting that the US action was not notified to China, Vietnam, the Philippines and other neighboring countries in the South China Sea, which was a sneaky operation, and the result was that "stealing chickens does not become erosion of rice", causing serious accidents. The US military is reluctant to disclose more details of the accident, mainly because nuclear submarines are core military secrets, in order to prevent other countries from spying on the specific functions and parameters of nuclear submarines, the United States is unwilling and unable to disclose the specific damage to other countries.
Liu Feng: The "Connecticut" nuclear submarine "hit the mountain" in the South China Sea, and it is not excluded that the "Connecticut" is carrying out some extreme operations in the South China Sea. Over the years, the US military has continuously carried out activities such as reconnaissance and monitoring in the South China Sea. According to common sense, nuclear submarines should have a certain understanding of the surrounding environment when operating under the sea, and maintain the necessary safety distance from the "danger zone". One possible explanation, therefore, is that Connecticut was conducting some more detailed seafloor exploration, or trying more aggressive extreme maneuvers, which led to accidents. The international community has every reason to worry that a nuclear submarine with a displacement of more than 9,000 tons could have catastrophic consequences for the waters of the South China Sea if it leaks underwater.
What is worth vigilance is that the collision of the "Connecticut" nuclear submarine is only the tip of the iceberg of the US military's continuous involvement in the South China Sea in recent years. For a long time, under the banner of "freedom of navigation and overflight," the US military has frequently dispatched aircraft carriers, strategic bombers, nuclear submarines and other advanced weapons platforms to operate in the South China Sea, seriously threatening regional national security and aggravating regional tensions.
How many military deployments are hidden by the US military in the South China Sea?
According to the statistics of the "South China Sea Strategic Situational Awareness Plan", a think tank that has long tracked the South China Sea issue, in the first half of 2021, the activity intensity of the US military's maritime reconnaissance force represented by the marine surveillance ship continued to rise, and the five marine surveillance ships owned by the US military all went to the South China Sea to carry out operations. In the 181 days of this six-month period, at least 161 days more than one marine surveillance ship was deployed in the South China Sea, with an outgoing rate of 89%, and there was almost no window period. On November 10, the U.S. Department of Defense posted a photo of the aircraft carrier on overseas social platforms, with the arrogant caption: "The USS Carl Vinson of the U.S. Navy passes through the South China Sea." Can you count how many planes there are [on deck]? ”
Liu Feng: Since the "Flawless" incident occurred in March 2009, for more than a decade, the United States has intensified its military activities in the South China Sea, on the one hand, it has continuously dispatched naval monitoring ships and so-called marine research vessels, increased monitoring of the marine environment in the South China Sea, and extensively collected hydrological, meteorological, current, and other aspects of information in the South China Sea to make up for the "shortcomings" of the United States in the first-hand data of the Sea conditions in the South China Sea, and to "escort" the frequent entry and exit of large US warships in the South China Sea; on the other hand, to keep an eye on China's military activities in the South China Sea. In particular, the construction of military bases in Hainan and Guangdong is intended to carry out pre-emptive and strategic suppression of China's construction of a strong maritime army and a maritime power.
The adjustment and transformation of the US military deployment in the South China Sea has undergone a "trilogy" .
First, with the help of military allies and strategic partners in the South China Sea, we will strengthen forward military deployment around the South China Sea. On the east wing, it strengthened military cooperation with the Philippines in an attempt to re-normalize the stationing of Clark Air Force Base and Subic Bay Naval Base in the Philippines; on the west side, it co-opted Vietnam to jointly control China in the South China Sea, coveted Vietnam's Cam Ranh Bay, and tried to lease it as a new military base for the US military; in the south, it increased the deployment of littoral combat ships and other military forces in Singapore, radiating to the first line of the Strait of Malacca, thus forming a joint encirclement of China in the South China Sea. However, at present, the neighboring countries in the South China Sea do not obey the United States, and the strategy of relying on allies and partners of the United States has not been successfully implemented in recent years.
Second, the US military from the backstage to the front of the stage, many times can be described as "shirtless". Since the beginning of this year, the United States has openly abandoned its commitment not to take a stand on sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea, directly intervened in territorial and maritime disputes in the South China Sea, and frequently carried out military activities in the South China Sea by US warships to "show muscles", constantly intensifying tension in the South China Sea.
Third, we should win over Japan, Australia, britain, and other countries outside the region, use the momentum of allies to "form groups" to stir up trouble in the South China Sea, change the pattern of the United States "singing a one-man show" in the past, and unite with foreign allies to exert pressure on China.
Zhang Jie: Since the Trump administration proposed the "Indo-Pacific Strategy", the US action to strengthen the strategic deployment of the South China Sea has become increasingly obvious, and has shown a tendency of militarization, legalization, public opinion, and internationalization: on the one hand, the United States has strengthened its military deployment in the South China Sea and strengthened the militarization of the South China Sea through approach reconnaissance, sea and air patrols, etc.; on the other hand, since 2016, the United States has issued a so-called South China Sea-related statement every year, requiring China to abide by the "ruling" of the South China Sea arbitration case and increase the legal and rational offensive; in addition, At the same time, the Biden administration has tried to use pseudo-multilateralism to activate, strengthen and establish mechanisms such as the "US-Japan-India-Australia Quadrilateral Dialogue" and the "US-Britain-Australia Security Partnership", and use allies and partner countries to engage in "small circles" to try to contain China on the South China Sea issue. It should be emphasized that the real purpose of the United States intervening in the South China Sea issue is to find a reason for the United States to strengthen its military presence in the South China Sea by maintaining the so-called "freedom of navigation and overflight" and to compete with China for dominance of the regional security order.
Since 2020, the situation in the South China Sea has changed from "stabilizing to good" to "complex and turbulent", which is mainly reflected in: First, the United States has increased its multi-means intervention in the South China Sea, especially in July 2020, when US Secretary of State Pompeo delivered a speech, which in fact changed the "neutral position" of the United States in the territorial disputes over the south China Sea for a long time; second, with the "support" and support of the United States, the neighboring countries in the South China Sea have continuously solidified their illegal claims and illegal occupation through island and reef construction, oil and gas resource development, etc.; The United States has stepped up its involvement in the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, encouraging relevant countries to include "rulings" in arbitration cases, and requiring China and ASEAN countries to take into account the military and economic interests of so-called extraterritorial countries in the negotiations.
Can the US attempt to disrupt the South China Sea succeed?
According to the U.S. Pacific Fleet website, maritime cooperation operations and U.S. aircraft carrier operations in the South China Sea are part of the U.S. Navy's routine activity to demonstrate its presence in the "Indo-Pacific region." Rear Admiral Dan Martin, commander of the U.S. First Aircraft Carrier Battle Group, declared: "The Indo-Pacific is a vibrant region, and by continuing routine operations with our allies and partners in international waters and airspace, we have demonstrated our unwavering commitment to upholding international law at sea and in the air and ensuring that all nations can do so without fear or dissent." ”
Zhang Jie: Although the United States continues to stir up the situation in the South China Sea, at present, the neighboring countries in the South China Sea and China jointly maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea, which is supported by many practical factors. First, jointly fighting the epidemic and promoting economic recovery is the realistic demand of Southeast Asian countries, and the neighboring countries in the South China Sea and China need each other in anti-epidemic, economic and trade aspects, and are unwilling to take the South China Sea issue as the main issue affecting the relations between China and Southeast Asian countries. On the one hand, China and ASEAN countries promote the consultation process of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea to jointly maintain regional balance and stability, which plays a role in reconciling and constraining the excessive claims of individual ASEAN countries; on the other hand, China and relevant countries in the South China Sea handle territorial disputes through bilateral dialogue, so as to "advance in both tracks" and maintain the stability of the situation in the South China Sea as a whole. Third, ASEAN's biggest demand is to maintain its central position and unity, and is unwilling to "choose a side" in the great power game, which also makes relevant countries maintain relative restraint on the South China Sea issue.
But it must be noted that the collision of the Nuclear Submarine Connecticut reminds us that the possibility of accidental friction in the South China Sea is rapidly increasing. For some time now, US maritime military forces have frequently intervened in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, which has a strong provocative meaning and created more uncertainty for the situation in the South China Sea. To some extent, the "accident" of the "Connecticut" can be regarded as the "inevitable" of the frequent activities of the US warships in the recent past and "tired of running for their lives". If there are more and more accidents like this, it may bring bad consequences such as nuclear leakage and ecological pollution, which will pose a huge threat to regional stability. The excessive involvement of the United States in the South China Sea issue is not conducive to the main theme of regional peace and cooperation, and also deviates from the core demand of neighboring countries in the South China Sea to jointly seek economic recovery.
Liu Feng: The attitudes of countries bordering the South China Sea on the South China Sea issue are complex and contradictory. On the one hand, the development and evolution of the South China Sea dispute in recent years has made the countries concerned soberly realize that blindly showing strength to China at the instigation of the United States cannot truly resolve the south China Sea dispute, and if we want to pursue our own interests in the South China Sea, we must move in the opposite direction with China and carry out constructive consultations and dialogues. On the other hand, the United States has continuously stepped up its military operations in the South China Sea, blindly intensifying regional tensions, and not completely in line with the actual needs of neighboring countries for development and cooperation. Today, epidemic prevention and control and economic recovery are the most core common concerns of neighboring countries, and it is in the common interests of relevant countries for China and ASEAN countries to jointly discuss and control differences in the South China Sea and maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea. As a country outside the region, the United States has constantly created incidents in the South China Sea, fanning the flames, lest the world not be chaotic, and many people of insight in the countries surrounding the South China Sea are looking at it.
Hu Zhiyong: The STRATEGIC LAYOUT OF the United States in the South China Sea has many purposes: to turn the South China Sea into an "unstable" South China Sea, undermine regional stability, and profit from it; to use the South China Sea issue to divide the friendly relations between China and Southeast Asian countries in the political and diplomatic, military security, and even economic and trade fields; and to hedge and offset the influence of the "Belt and Road" initiative promoted by China, especially the "Maritime Silk Road" in Southeast Asia. The United States hopes to make Southeast Asia an important focus for promoting the "Indo-Pacific Strategy", and use the South China Sea issue as an important starting point to incite Southeast Asian countries to have contradictions and frictions with China, weaken China's influence in Southeast Asia, and enhance its political, security and economic influence in the Indo-Pacific region. What is worth vigilance is that Western developed countries have always regarded the South China Sea issue as an important means of containing China, and as the United States draws more allies to "enter the game," Western countries may use the South China Sea issue as a bargaining chip with China in terms of diplomacy, economy and trade, and even become the "behind-the-scenes operator" of provoking the South China Sea issue. Therefore, China must face up to the long-term nature and complexity of the South China Sea issue.
Column Editor-in-Chief: Gu Wanquan Text Editor: Song Hui Caption Source: Visual China Picture Editor: Yong Kai
Source: Author: People's Daily Overseas Edition