January 1, 2022, is the time for people to celebrate the arrival of the new year. New energy vehicles in the automotive industry have ushered in a wave of price increases.
According to reports, Tesla has raised the price of the Model 3 and Model Y models respectively, while Volkswagen also announced the price increase of its ID.6 CROZZ and ID.4 CROZZ two pure electric models. In addition, GAC Aeon's sales staff said as early as last December that from January 2022, EON LX will increase its price by 4,000 yuan, starting at 230,000 yuan.
Many people believe that the most direct reason for the price increase of new energy vehicles is the recent implementation of the policy of subsidies for new energy vehicles, but is this really the case?
Subsidies decline
Recently, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "Notice of the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Development and Reform Commission on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022", which clarified the details of the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles.
In fact, the document on the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles, as early as April 2020, the four ministries and commissions of the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "Notice on Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" (Caijian [2020] No. 86), which clarified that "in principle, the subsidy standards for 2020-2022 will be reduced by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively on the basis of the previous year, and the vehicles in the field of public transportation meet the requirements." The subsidy standard in 2020 will not decline, and the subsidy standard for 2021-2022 will be reduced by 10% and 20% respectively on the basis of the previous year, and in principle, the annual subsidy scale will be capped at about 2 million vehicles."
In accordance with the provisions of Caijian [2020] No. 86 document. The new Notice clarifies the subsidy standards for vehicle products of different types and different fields, which will be implemented from 1 January 2022.
The new "Notice" requires that in 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021; the subsidy standard will be reduced by 20% on the basis of 2021 for urban buses, road passenger transport, taxi (including online car-hailing), sanitation, urban logistics and distribution, postal express, civil aviation airports, and vehicles in the official field of party and government organs.
According to the notification content:
In 2021, pure trams with a range of 300km-400km can enjoy a subsidy of 13,000 yuan, and in 2022, the slope will be reduced by 30%, that is, a reduction of 3900 yuan.
In 2021, pure trams with a battery life greater than 400km and priced at less than 300,000 yuan can enjoy a subsidy of 18,000 yuan, and in 2022, the slope will decline by 30%, reducing the subsidy by 5,400 yuan.
Hybrid models with pure electric endurance NEDC working conditions greater than 50km, or WLTC working conditions greater than or equal to 43km, and the price is less than 300,000 yuan, enjoy 6800 yuan subsidy in 2021, and after 30% decline in 2022, reduce the subsidy by 2040 yuan.
In addition, in order to create a stable policy environment, the current framework and threshold requirements for the purchase subsidy technical indicator system will continue to remain unchanged in 2022.
Although many people believe that the decline in subsidies will bring a certain degree of impact on new energy vehicles, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Automobile Market Research Branch of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said that because the subsidy standards remain unchanged and battery technology is improving, the policy as the main thrust will promote the substantial growth of the scale of new energy vehicles, which reflects the strong support of the policy for the transformation of the traditional automobile industry, which is a strong support for new energy vehicles beyond expectations.
Cui Dongshu believes that the details of the policy have not been adjusted at all, which is the overall stability that exceeds expectations and is conducive to the strong increase of low-end models.
Costs are rising
In addition to the decline in subsidies, the rising cost of power batteries for new energy vehicles is also of concern. As an important part of new energy vehicles, power batteries account for 30% to 40% of the cost of the vehicle, and the price increase of batteries will inevitably drive the cost of the vehicle to increase.
In the second half of 2021, the price of power battery cathode materials, electrolytes, etc. continued to rise, driving the price of power batteries, the reason is nothing more than the core raw material of lithium batteries - the price of lithium resources rose sharply, as of the second week of December 2021, the price of lithium carbonate in shipping has set a new record of 32,600 US dollars / ton; at the same time, the price of marine lithium hydroxide has also reached 31,900 US dollars / ton, which has also reached a record high.
By the end of 2021, the price of lithium carbonate in sea transport has risen by 413% compared with the beginning of 2021, and the price of lithium hydroxide in sea transport has also increased by 254%.
The sharp rise in the price of power batteries has to be said to be inseparable from the strong demand for new energy vehicles. In 2021, the sales market of new energy vehicles in China has accounted for more than 20%. This directly leads to an increase in the demand for batteries and an increase in the demand for battery capacity.
It is reported that the Cataline Era has significantly raised the shipment guidelines for this year at the end of 2021, and it is expected that battery shipments may reach 350GWh (billion watt-hours) this year. The ningde era also confirms the logic of battery demand expansion.
Some research institutions have shown that if the impact of the price increase of power battery raw materials is transmitted to the end of the vehicle enterprise, the purchase price of the battery may actually increase by about 10% to 20%, and the final material cost of the whole vehicle will rise 3. 5％～7％。
Trend
Although a variety of "unfavorable factors" are intertwined, the just past 2021 is still called "the first year of new energy vehicles" by many people.
According to data from the China Automobile Association, in the first 11 months of 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China has reached 2.99 million. At the same time, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles has also increased from 9.4% in the first half of 2021 to 12.7%. In November 2021, the retail penetration rate of new energy passenger cars in China exceeded 20%, reaching 20.8%.
As for the reasons for the outbreak of new energy vehicles, Lin Cheng, chief scientist of the National Engineering Laboratory for Electric Vehicles at Beijing Institute of Technology, said, "At present, the public's recognition of new energy vehicles is already a consensus, whether it is private cars, logistics vehicles or commercial vehicles have been fully industrialized, the cost of new energy vehicles is gradually decreasing, whether it is batteries or motor parts are reduced due to industrialization." At the same time, under the 'double carbon' policy, the support of national policies for new energy vehicles is unprecedented. ”
In addition, Zhang Xiang, a researcher at the Automotive Industry Innovation Research Center of North China University of Technology, believes that new energy vehicles are usually integrated with intelligent networking, which is integrated together, and this intelligent network connection is a new function that fuel vehicles did not have before. Therefore, this feature of intelligent networking is very popular with young people, and to a certain extent, it has also driven the sales of new energy vehicles.
The people evaluate the car
In the eyes of many people, new energy vehicles are the future of the automobile industry, is the general trend, in the face of the general trend, whether the subsidy decline or cost rise this stage of the influencing factors are not enough to shake the future of new energy vehicles, but for ordinary consumers, whether it is a few thousand yuan of subsidies, or tens of thousands of yuan of price increases, will have an impact on the user's choice to buy a car.