Introduction to the stone: Just like Nokia, which has fallen behind in the transformation from functional machines to smart phones, the fuel vehicle giant Volkswagen Group is obviously underprepared in the face of electrification, which has not changed the automotive industry in a hundred years. Factors such as the turn of the ship, the shackles of vested interests, and the arrogance of executives have all affected the electrification transformation of the Volkswagen Group, while the rise of new forces and the resistance within the group have further exacerbated the difficulty of the "elephant" turning.
Li Ping | wen
At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the German auto giant Volkswagen Group once again announced a series of personnel changes. Among them, Volkswagen Group CEO Herbert Diess successfully remained in office, but the focus shifted to the group business, and from January 1, 2022, the "Group Global Management Board" was fully responsible for the business of the software division CARIAD, and was no longer responsible for the operation of more practical businesses, including the sales business, and the actual power was further weakened.
In terms of the Chinese market, the current Volkswagen China CEO Feng Sihan will leave in August 2022 and will be replaced by Ralf Brandsttter, CEO of Volkswagen's passenger car brand. Previously, Feng Sihan had been rumored to have left his job many times due to the unfavorable sales of volkswagen pure electric vehicle ID.
At the same time, the Volkswagen Group also announced a new round of five-year plans. According to the plan, the Volkswagen Group plans to invest a total of 159 billion euros over the next five years, of which 89 billion euros will be used for technologies such as software and electric vehicles, accounting for 56% of the total investment. The Volkswagen Group expects that by 2026, a quarter of the cars sold by the Volkswagen Group will have pure electric systems.
It is widely believed that the new round of 5-year plans shows that Volkswagen will continue to adhere to The Des' electrification transformation route, and will catch up with Tesla even if it "throws money". Dees said in an interview with foreign media, "I will not complain about losing some of my power, I still think I have full responsibility for the company." ”
According to the latest data, the Volkswagen ID. family delivered a total of 13,787 new cars in December, the fourth consecutive month of delivery exceeded 10,000 vehicles, but in 2021, the cumulative delivery volume of the ID. family was 70,625 vehicles, which was not only lower than the new forces such as Weilai, Ideal, and Xiaopeng, but also far lower than Tesla.
China is the most important market for the Volkswagen Group, accounting for 40% of global sales, but sales of the ID. series of pure electric vehicles are much lower than expected. From January to November 2021, SAIC Volkswagen and FAW-Volkswagen ranked 13th and 14th in the domestic pure electric vehicle sales ranking with a market share of 1.4% and 1% respectively. For the Volkswagen Group, which aims to surpass Tesla, this market share performance obviously has great room for improvement.
Overall, in 2021, the sales performance of the Volkswagen ID. series, which was first suppressed and then raised and exerted force in the second half, was not satisfactory. After the fierce efforts, the Volkswagen Group will continue its own road of electrification and digital transformation. However, from the current situation, "surpassing Tesla in 2025" is by no means an easy goal for the centennial public.
1 The chinese market is not satisfactory
On January 1, the Volkswagen Group announced the December deliveries of the ID. family, which delivered a total of 13,787 new vehicles in the month, exceeding 10,000 for the fourth consecutive month, but 380 fewer than in November. Since its launch at the end of March 2021, the ID. family has delivered a total of 70,625 vehicles.
From the perspective of annual delivery volume, the sales volume of the Volkswagen Group ID. series is still not as good as that of China's new local forces such as "Wei Xiaoli", not to mention Tesla, which will catch up in 2025.
The latest data shows that in 2021, Xiaopeng Motors, Weilai Automobile and Ideal Automobile delivered 98,155 new vehicles, 91,429 vehicles and 90,491 vehicles respectively, and the sales of the top three new forces exceeded the Volkswagen ID. series by 20,000 units. Tesla, in 2021, the global delivery of new cars reached 936,200 units, and from January to November, Tesla's total car sales in the Chinese market have reached 240,000 units.
In March 2021, volkswagen ID.4 entered China and was also included in the product catalog of North and South Volkswagen, named ID.4 CROZZ (FAW-Volkswagen) and ID.4 X (SAIC Volkswagen). However, after entering China, the compact pure electric SUV with high hopes encountered embarrassment, until May of that year, the total sales of the ID.4 X and ID.4 CROZZ models were only 1213 units, and almost failed to make any noise in the lively new energy vehicle market.
In June 2021, the 7-seat SAIC Volkswagen ID.6 X launched for the Chinese market was the first to be launched, and the next month faw-Volkswagen ID.6 CROZZ also ushered in the listing, but the monthly sales of the Volkswagen ID. series remained between 6,000 and 7,000 units. For a time, "why Volkswagen can't sell electric vehicles in China" triggered a lot of discussion.
The reason why volkswagen is emphasized that it "will not sell trams in China" is that the Volkswagen ID.3 and ID.4 models have been quite popular after their launch in the European market. In the 2020 sales of new energy passenger car companies in Europe released by EV Sales, Volkswagen ranked first with the total sales of 126059 units, and Tesla ranked third with 87642 units. In the first half of this year, ID.3 accumulated sales of 3W+, ID.4 cumulative sales of 2.5W, in Europe ranking second and fourth respectively.
Geographical differences are a real problem that the Volkswagen Group has to face. According to industry analysts, consumers in the European market pay more attention to the practical attributes of cars, and the affordable ID.3 and ID.4 are naturally easy to attract the attention of the market. However, in China, electric vehicles represent technology and trends in a sense, compared with Tesla, "Wei Xiaoli" and other new forces in the software system, intelligence advantages, flat and stable Volkswagen ID. series is still like a "battery-loaded traditional oil car."
In fact, the MEB platform used in Volkswagen's ID. series still has the brand of the fuel vehicle era, and the product reflects more of the replacement of the power system, and does not focus on intelligence, so the product is dwarfed by Tesla or China's local opponents, regardless of whether the shape or intelligent experience of the product.
In addition, many European cities retained the medieval architectural style, so the streets between the buildings were relatively narrow. Because of this, residents of Europe prefer more compact models. On the contrary, Chinese consumers pay more attention to space and car length, which is also a reason why the ID.4 series is unfavorable in China.
Moreover, in order to transform to the agency system at the sales terminal level, the north and south volkswagens have adopted the agency system model for the sales model of the ID. series, and the change of channels requires more running-in and sales climbing time.
Of course, the good point of this move is that the overall delivery volume of new cars of the ID. family has shown a trend of increasing month by month, especially in the second half of the year, which has freed Volkswagen from the embarrassment and doubt of "not selling trams in China".
Starting from September 2021, Volkswagen's ID. series models have exceeded the 10,000-unit mark for the first time, which can basically be on par with the single car companies of the first-line new forces of "Wei Xiaoli". Among them, in October, the Volkswagen ID. series surpassed Xiaopeng, Ideal and NIO with 12,736 units of delivery, and attracted the praise of Volkswagen Group CEO Herbert Diess.
In addition, the common problem of chip shortage has also caused a certain impact on the sales of volkswagen ID. series. According to Volkswagen China CEO Feng Sihan, "If there is no chip shortage impact, the ID. series is expected to complete the sales target of 80,000-100,000 units for the whole year, and it is possible to set 160,000-200,000 units in 2022."
However, although Feng Sihan has repeatedly expressed his satisfaction with the development process of the ID. series, he himself has confirmed that he will leave the position of CEO of Volkswagen China in August 2022, and will be replaced by Ralf Brandsttter, CEO of Volkswagen Passenger Car Brand.
According to the data, from January to November 2021, SAIC Volkswagen and FAW-Volkswagen ranked 13th and 14th in the domestic pure electricity sales list with a market share of 1.4% and 1%, respectively. For the Volkswagen Group, which aims to surpass Tesla, the importance of the Chinese market, which accounts for more than 40% of sales, is self-evident, and this market share performance obviously has great room for improvement.
However, on the whole, in 2021, the performance of the Volkswagen ID.series, which was suppressed first and then raised and exerted in the second half, can be described as unsatisfactory. Perhaps, this is a more objective evaluation of the active transformation of the Volkswagen Group, after all, the delivery volume exceeded 10,000 in the second half of the year for 4 consecutive months, which not only made the "Volkswagen can't sell electric vehicles in China" a lot less skeptical, but also let the Volkswagen Group's "Nokia crisis" temporarily alleviate.
2 Volkswagen's "Nokia Crisis"
Since the German Benz invented the world's first automobile in 1886, the German automotive industry has been leading the development of the world's automobile industry and giving birth to the Volkswagen Group, the world's largest automobile group.
For Volkswagen, the Chinese market is another crucial market. In 1985, the Volkswagen Group took the lead in establishing a joint venture with SAIC Motor, Shanghai Volkswagen, becoming the first European automobile company to enter China. Since then, it is precisely by virtue of the good sales performance of the Chinese market that the Volkswagen Group has changed its decline in the North American market and has defeated GM, Toyota and other American and Japanese powerhouses to become the world's largest automobile company.
However, just like Nokia, which has fallen behind in the transformation from functional machines to smart phones, as the king of the era of fuel vehicles, Volkswagen Group is obviously ill-prepared in the face of electrification, which has not been seen in a century. In particular, the arrogance and prejudice of executives have become an important factor in the disadvantage of volkswagen transformation.
Before the exposure of Volkswagen's "dieselgate", Martin Wendern was firmly optimistic about hybrid rather than pure electric vehicles during his tenure as CEO, "combining electric motors with traditional engines such as diesel engines, vigorously developing hybrid models, suspending research and development for pure electric models" and "Pure electric vehicle mileage will not exceed 150 kilometers"... A series of miscalculations and concepts at the top leadership directly led Volkswagen to launch only two pure electric models, e-UP and e-Golf, before 2015, with a cruising range of only 150km and 134km respectively.
After Wendern later stepped down due to a cheating scandal, his successor, Tias Mueller, while determined the electrification transition at the group level, paid little attention to the all-electric technology route and the threat from rival Tesla.
As late as 2017, Tias Mueller criticized Tesla for only burning money, "Now I really need to comment on Tesla a few words." WITH ALL DUE, there are some companies in this world that claim to be the number one in the world, and I don't want to name them. Some companies sell only 80,000 cars a year, while companies like Volkswagen have sold 11 million cars this year and made a profit of 13-14 billion euros. ”
A lot of arrogance comes from ignorance, when the global car companies are rapidly transforming to pure electric models, the Volkswagen Group at the helm of Muller is still vigorously developing plug-in hybrid routes, and has launched three hybrid models, Touareg GET, Mago gte Concept and Tanyue GTE Concept, but none of them have succeeded.
In April 2018, Müller stepped down as CEO of Volkswagen Group early, and "lack of strategic height" was seen as a major reason for his early termination of his term. Mueller ultimately paid the price for his own prejudices.
Müller was succeeded by Herbert Diess, a veteran of the German auto industry. Unlike Mueller, the technologically trained Diess has a clear understanding of the great changes in the automotive industry and the potential crisis of the Volkswagen Group, and the electrification transformation of the Volkswagen Group has entered a new stage.
"The era of traditional automakers is over," Diess told group executives at Volkswagen's internal meeting in 2019, "German automakers need to accelerate their transformation so as not to become another Nokia." The big question now is: Are we fast enough? If we continue to develop at the current rate, I am afraid it will be very difficult."
3 Dis's challenge
In May 2015, Diess parachuted into the Volkswagen Group as CEO of the Volkswagen brand. Prior to that, Diess, who had a doctorate, worked at Bosch and bmw. In 2012, Diess was promoted to Director of R&D Technology at the BMW Group.
After becoming CEO of Volkswagen Group, Diess reduced volkswagen group investment in hybrid technology and firmly optimistic about the pure electric route. In order to change the backward situation of the Volkswagen Group in the electrification transformation, Diess has launched a series of reform measures such as the MEB pure electric platform, the independent operation of the software department, and the increase of investment in autonomous driving technology.
However, the Volkswagen Group's backwardness in the field of pure electricity at this time is already visible to the naked eye: it was not until September 2019 that Volkswagen launched the first model of the MEB pure electric platform at the Frankfurt Motor Show, the ID.3. For the full year of 2019, the ID.3 produced only 40 units, while Tesla has already delivered 367,000 units in 2019, of which the Model 3 delivered more than 300,000 units.
Unfortunately, before the Volkswagen ID.3 was delivered, it had to be delayed due to a large-scale software failure. In the end, the ID.3, which was scheduled for the first deliveries in Europe in June 2020, was forced to delay the delivery date until September, and Dis himself was criticized.
But unlike the arrogant Muller, Dies maintains a clear understanding of the gap between Volkswagen and its opponents in the electric field, and highly praises Tesla and Musk himself, "Musk is a talented person, he is changing the world" "Tesla's cars are very good, I like to drive them."
In October 2021, Diess also specially invited Musk to teach 200 executives of the Volkswagen Group a lesson in the name of "accelerating electrification", and humbly asked "Iron Man" about the direction, management style, supply chain and production of Volkswagen's transformation of electric vehicles.
Despite the question of "rubbing traffic with each other", Diess himself does have a deep understanding of Tesla's supply chain management and software development strength. To this end, Diess has carried out a series of reforms to the old, rigid institutional structure of volkswagen.
With the strong promotion of the transformation of electrification, Diess himself has won wide praise in the industry, and Volkswagen has become a model and pacesetter for the transformation of traditional car companies. However, Des's drastic reforms inevitably attracted internal resistance and dissatisfaction, especially its large-scale layoff plan to cut costs, which once caused Dies to encounter a crisis of dismissal.
In fact, as early as 2015, Diess had many conflicts with the union because of the problem of layoffs, which is well known within the public. After many battles, Diess stepped down as CEO of the Volkswagen brand in June 2020, retaining only the CEO position of Volkswagen Group. In the third quarter of 2021, in order to further reduce costs and promote electrification, Diess once again offered a layoff plan, which led to a freezing point in its relationship with the union and once again facing the crisis of graduation.
On December 9, 2021, the Volkswagen Group announced the successful retention of Volkswagen Group CEO Herbert Diess, but shifted its focus to the group business and withdrew from more actual business operations, including sales. It is widely believed that Dies's voice within the public has once again been weakened.
"We are the best in the world of the internal combustion engine, but in the new world we call NEW AUTO, what awaits us is a war that has never been experienced before." Faced with external competitive pressure, Dees remained sober enough. But Diess also said Volkswagen will go its own way, approaching and surpassing Tesla, "becoming the global leader in the electric vehicle market by 2025 at the latest."
But now, when internal reforms have entered the deep waters, Dees is facing not only external competitive pressures, but also resistance from internal diehards. The transformation of the Centennial Volkswagen Group is destined not to be smooth.