author
Barosaurus
The coexistence of bright spots and anxiety points is the real situation of the new energy vehicle market.
Responsible editor 丨 Shi Jie
Edit 丨 Chic
If 2021 is called "the year of the new energy vehicle explosion", I believe that no one will oppose it.
We use data to speak: in the Chinese market in 2021, only new energy passenger cars, excluding commercial vehicles, then wholesale sales of 3.31 million units, an increase of 183% year-on-year; retail sales of 2.99 million units, an increase of 170% year-on-year. In the entire automotive market, the penetration rate of new energy has exceeded 15%, reaching more than 20% at the end of the month.
Revisiting the topic of "new energy curve overtaking", many people were still scolding "electric vehicles are fraudulent supplements, and overtaking in curves is a fool's dream". Now if you oppose, then you probably want to say that "new energy vehicles belong to lane change overtaking", because local car companies have indeed greatly narrowed the gap with vehicle electrification, and even surpassed overseas car companies.
Looking at the auto sales rankings, by-leaps and bounds BYD and SAIC-GM-Wuling, the emerging new forces, all rely on new energy vehicles to gain share and momentum. Under the background of the downturn in the fuel vehicle market, the overall sales of new energy have nearly tripled, becoming the most powerful sector.
So, how big is the advantage of the new energy winners represented by BYD? Is it really what fans say "one hit ten"? Where is Tesla, the pure electric leader? Who is under more pressure from the new forces and traditional car companies?
These can not be concluded by patting your head, but you have to find the answer from the data analysis.
01
Win, but don't exaggerate
C dimension synthesizes the wholesale sales released by the Association and the sales data of manufacturers, and lists the sales of three car brands: new energy, pure electric and plug-in hybrid.
It is a matter of pride that the total sales volume of new energy and the list of plug-and-mix sales are all BYD's awards, and only Tesla is not a local car company in the top ten of new energy total sales.
▲Sales ranking of new energy vehicles in 2021
In terms of total new energy sales, BYD is the only car company with new energy vehicle sales exceeding 500,000 vehicles, and 599,000 vehicles and a 227% increase can be regarded as a "unique gear" achievement, which is also the result of BYD's deep cultivation of new energy for many years. However, if only pure electric vehicles are counted, then BYD's performance is 321,000 vehicles, ranking behind Tesla and Shangtong Wuling.
Often some fans joke that "BYD can play ten at a time", but that is obviously aimed at the new forces that currently sell less than 100,000 vehicles a year, the second Tesla and the third Place Shangtong Wuling both exceed 400,000 vehicles, although the sales performance of these two companies, the export ratio is larger, but in the end, the scale is not far from BYD, and the sum of the two can exceed BYD.
Of course, BYD also has two major favorable factors will be released in 2022: the current new energy vehicle orders are bursting, according to insiders, Qin and Song models have accumulated about 300,000 orders; in addition, THE current BYD production capacity has not kept up with demand, with the expansion of production and chip supply improvement, BYD is expected to achieve 1.2 million new energy vehicle sales in 2022.
It has to be admitted that Tesla is very tight on the scale of sales, according to the plan, Tesla's domestic production capacity will double to 1 million in 2022. Considering Tesla's advantages in brand grade, this radical brand tone car company is still the biggest rival of China's new energy vehicles.
Saic-GM-Wuling explained "small and broad" and "rural encirclement of the city" vividly. The Wuling Hongguang MINI EV has become a phenomenon-level product in the past two years, and even made Japanese experts exclaim after dismantling the car, "We can't do it so cheaply." Previously, the industry criticized Shangtong Wuling for being difficult to do a good job in brand attack, but with the birth of Hongguang MINI to the city and the LINGHOUSE showroom, "mini cars can also be refined" has become another dimension of brand upwards. However, Shangtong Wuling still needs to consider the issues of "how to achieve profits for cars" and "long-term profit models other than selling points".
Under the three strong new energy forces, it is not to follow the new forces with the strongest topicality, but to strive for a new model of SAIC passenger cars, Great Wall Motors with Euler to break through new energy, GAC EIAN that gradually moved from the B-end market to the C-end market, and Chery Automobile, which launched eQ very early and has operated new energy around the Ant family so far. The new energy sales of these four car companies last year were about 100,000 to less than 200,000 vehicles, and their year-on-year growth rate was basically just over 100%, which was not as good as the three giants that had doubled by about 3 times.
▲2021 pure electric vehicle sales ranking
In addition, Geely Automobile, which is not on the list, the official sales data indicates that the sales of its new energy and electrification vehicles exceeded 100,000 (the data of the Association of Automobiles shows that Geely's plug-in and mixed sales have entered the top ten, exceeding 20,000 units), which should be included in the 48V light mix. This shows that the electrification of traditional car companies is not too late, and there are performance bases, which are not as good as the new forces and the three giants in terms of momentum - there is no need to sing the decline of traditional car companies in the wave of electrification, nor do they need to tout that traditional car companies are larger in scale, and once the force is exerted, the new forces are completely destroyed.
Among the new forces, what can really squeeze into the top ten lists of new energy sales is really Wei Xiaoli, the so-called "three fools of us stocks" - on the other hand, these three are indeed superior in the new forces, and investors are not stupid. Considering Xiaopeng's specification positioning, C Dimension predicted very early that it would inevitably have the greatest sales potential in the three companies; and Weilai emphasized the high-end nature of the brand, the average terminal price was comparable to Mercedes-Benz, and the further impulse in the future only relied on the cheap new brand; the ideal realization of the best single store sales and single model performance in the three countries, while reflecting the accurate grasp of the market pulse, will also encounter the soul torture of "whether the next blue ocean can still be accurate".
▲2021 plug-in hybrid vehicle sales ranking
As for Changan Automobile, Volkswagen ID., Nezha Automobile, etc., which have not entered the top ten but are relatively high, many of them have not yet "fully climbed the sales slope", or are affected by chips and the epidemic, and if it is asserted that there will be no good performance, it is too early. Even the current sales of Xilis, Extreme Krypton, and Extreme Fox have not yet played all their cards.