On January 10, Ren Zeping poked everyone in the big news.
He said on Weibo that the central bank should print an additional 2 trillion yuan to establish a fertility encouragement fund, which can give birth to 50 million more children in 10 years and solve the problem of aging Chinese population and low birthrate.
Subsequently, Liang Jianzhang also echoed and approved this method.
Not surprisingly, the two were scolded with a dog blood sprinkler.
Why are you scolded?
Because everyone knows what it means to print 2 trillion more. The money is 2 trillion more, but the goods are unchanged, and the result is naturally inflation.
Everyone's life is already difficult, why torture yourself?
So these two are looking for scolding, which is normal.
But the topic they picked up , how to increase fertility , is very meaningful. Let's think about them as a lead-
one
To understand this, we must first understand why the fertility rate does not go up.
Is there no indicator, is it disliked, or can't afford it?
No indicators?
Of the 14.65 million new births in 2019, more than 59.5% were second-born children, more than the first.
The second child has been so hard, but the result is that the number of newborns is still declining year after year, indicating that a large number of fertile people have abandoned the first child indicator.
Don't like it?
Know that reproduction is the instinct of the species. Whether you are high or unhappy, no matter how advanced and subjectively active people are, they must also obey the evolutionary laws of species.
What enables modern people to resist the power of genes and self-destruct must be a powerful external force.
So can't afford to be born?
BINGO！ That's right.
Times Finance once took the middle-class family as an example and calculated an account according to the two parenting routes of high-end and mass.
The conclusion is that the average mass household spends nearly 520,000 yuan from pregnancy to child rearing to 15 years old; while high-end parenting, giving children the best life and education, is about 4.3 million.
Having a child is equivalent to carrying a mortgage for 20 years.
This is only junior high school, and it is not yet a living burden such as buying a house in the future - as we all know, buying a house is a big number.
And that's not all.
What money can solve is not a big deal, and what is afraid is that money cannot solve.
The challenge is greater than the measurable cost of living is an incalculable sense of responsibility.
Parents have children, and they are eager to give him the best thing in the world.
There is still a number of mortgages, but there is no number of children, and you will raise him against your own ceiling, and you will worry about him losing at the starting line.
This huge cost of explicit and invisible is simply the perfect contraceptive pill.
Therefore, when the influencing factors are taken apart, we will find that the vast majority of people do not have children not because they have no indicators, nor because they do not want to have children, but because they cannot afford to have children.
Therefore, the problem of fertility is not a problem of indicators, nor is it related to the cost of having children, but the cost of parenting is too high.
This matter can also be thought of in reverse, having a child rewards ten million, do you think it is still reasonable?
Everyone must have indicators to go up, no indicators, and create indicators to go up!
So, in the end, the issue of fertility is an economic issue.
two
Then to solve the problem of fertility, we must rely on investment. With meditation and spiritual encouragement, one does not automatically become pregnant.
Investing is spending money.
As long as someone can solve the cost of parenting, the willingness to have children will naturally come up.
So whose money is spent?
Whose money is so rich that it can be transferred to the fertility population?
There are three major market players in the economic system, enterprises, individuals and governments.
Since it costs money, the money must be paid to one of them.
Enterprise?
Profit comes out of the cycle of production.
The enterprise is the organizational unit of the production process.
If the company creates enough profits, it can use special taxes and fees to cover the cost of parenting.
However, in the current economic downturn stage, enterprises are on the verge of death every day under the triple blow of transformation and the epidemic, and it is not easy to survive without adding burdens to society.
It is not realistic for you to let it pay for fertility again.
Personally?
Although individuals are a large type of market participants, they are actually the same as the situation of enterprises, and everyone is only in different positions of profit distribution.
If the enterprise has no money, then the individual has no money. So it's not realistic for you to let individuals pay for childbirth.
Then only the government remains.
Does the government have money?
The government's fiscal deficit is at least not on the books.
Then there is only one way left.
Yes, as you guessed, that's printing money.
Therefore, now we can understand Ren Zeping Liang Jianzhang's "printing money to encourage fertility".
There are so many social resources, you invest here, there will be a loss.
Calculating the economic account is only a number, but to calculate the political account, we must consider the feasibility of the operation, and we must consider the distribution of interests and the issue of interest drive.
Since no one is willing to pay, it can only be printed.
This is the logic of the two-bit.
Therefore, when you look at "printing money to encourage fertility", you are talking about the economy in terms of the economy, and these two are actually discussing political economy, seeing how things can be done in a redistributive way.
three
When Wang Anshi changed the law, there was a fierce debate between Wang Anshi and Sima Guang over financial reform.
Wang Anshi wanted to replenish the national treasury through "financial management."
However, Sima Guang's opposition was quite strong, saying, "The goods and goods produced by heaven and earth are not in the people, but they are in the officials, and if they try to compete with the people, the harm is greater than the endowment." ”
That is to say, the wealth of the world is counted, not in the people is in the government, your financial management will cause the people to suffer, and the harm is even more serious than the tax increase.
The same is true of fertility issues now. You can't do it without spending money; if you want to do it, you have to hurt the people.
So, can we have the best of both worlds?
Fortunately, the current economic system is different from the Song Dynasty, so there are really other ways to get the best of both worlds, such as printing money.
Printing money does not require enterprises and individuals to pay money, but also increases the fertility fund, killing two birds with one stone.
That's why Ren Zeping said:
Now only this approach is the most pragmatic and effective.
Understanding is understanding, but I don't agree with their plan either. Because these discussions of fertility issues are all misfocused.
Population size is not the most pressing issue, it is quality of population.
At present, the number of people who are suffering from the crisis of 35 years old is large, and there is obvious overstaffing. If you don't solve this problem, who dares to be born?
Is it born to let them experience social elimination?
Therefore, the top priority is to make good use of these current stocks of these people, so that they can fully play their role and reflect the value.
If they play well, they are all human resources; if they do not play well, this is all social baggage.
The population is always in the process of increasing wealth creation, and he naturally has fertility; the population is always in the process of reducing the amount of consumption, and he will naturally refuse to procreate.
Allowing everyone to reflect their value and giving everyone the opportunity for self-realization is the greatest support for the cost of parenting and the willingness to have children.
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