The border crisis between Russia and Ukraine is raging, why is Turkey so "jumping"?

The Paper's reporter Yu Xiaoxuan

"I don't think Russian invasion of Ukraine is a realistic choice — because Ukraine is not an ordinary country, it is a powerful country." Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told reporters on a trip to Albania on Jan. 17.

Since the end of last year, relations between Ukraine and Russia have accelerated, with both sides deploying large amounts of military personnel and equipment in the border areas of the two countries, and the United States, Ukraine and NATO claim that Russia has gathered heavy troops in the border areas near eastern Ukraine and has the potential to "invade". At a time when the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border is tense, Turkey on the other side of the Black Sea is particularly active.

In recent years, Turkey has stepped up defense cooperation with Ukraine and sold ukraine a number of Bayraktar-TB2 drones that "shined" in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Last October, Ukraine's Ministry of Defense confirmed that these drones were being used in the Donbass region, a move that also drew strong warnings from Russia.

Following Syria, Libya and the Caucasus, the Ukraine crisis has opened up a new arena for competition between Turkey and Russia. What role does Turkey want to play in the Ukraine crisis? Can Erdogan, who is good at performing "balancing", once again profit from the crisis? The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) made an interpretation of this topic.

Dirt drone into a secret weapon?

In a drone-view shot, a blue target box hovers over the ground image, and a few seconds later, a thick plume of smoke rises from the target and two militants flee the site — a video released by ukraine's Defense Ministry on October 26 last year of Ukrainian troops using a Turbyraktar-TB2 drone to attack a pro-Russian militia D-30 howitzer position in the Donbass region, and the first time Ukraine has acknowledged the use of the Beraktar-TB2.

The Statement of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense at the time said that after a Ukrainian soldier was killed in an attack by pro-Russian militia, the Ukrainian side asked for a ceasefire from Russia but was "negatively responded" by the Russian side, and the Ukrainian side immediately launched the drone attack. "The Armed Forces of Ukraine will continue to increase the use of Bayractal's tactics and methods of operations to deter Russian aggression and protect Ukrainian interests." The statement reads.

Back in 2019, Ukraine purchased 6 Byraktar-TB2 and 3 ground control systems from Turkey. But ukraine is believed to have acquired more Turkish drones than publicly reported. Bloomberg quoted Turkish government agency sources and an executive of a Turkish defense company with close ties to the government as saying in December that Turkey has sold dozens of drones to Kiev since 2019, in addition to missiles and consoles, and that Ukraine currently has orders for at least 24 drones. According to the Washington Post, Ukraine did not have any conditions attached to the purchase of Turkish drones, and Turkey and Ukraine also agreed to establish a joint production base for drones in Ukraine.

Bayractal-TB2 is a 600 kg medium-sized high-endurance cha-ta integrated UAV developed by Turkey, which can perform intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and armed attack missions, and in recent years, TB2 has become a ubiquitous "star product" in local wars. Turkish-made drones have all been successful in the conflicts in northern Syria, Libya and the fierce Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2020, especially in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, where Azerbaijan claimed to have destroyed as many as three figures of Armenian military equipment with TB2. The appearance of the Baraktar-TB2 in the Donbass conflict naturally attracted attention from the outside world, and even foreign media said that Turkish drones have become Ukraine's "secret weapon" against Russia.

"In recent years, armed drones have been a popular export product promoted by Turkey, and have also become an important tool for Turkey to expand its diplomatic influence, and Turkey is not willing to give up the practical benefits of exporting its own drones everywhere." Zou Zhiqiang, a researcher at the Middle East Research Center of Fudan University, told the surging news.

But it turns out that Turkish drones are also difficult to overwhelm when faced with troops with regular air defense systems. According to reports, in the Turkish-Syrian conflict on March 3, 2020, the Syrian air defense forces shot down at least six Byraktar-TB2 drones. Some Russian military experts believe that Turkish drones are the product of "low-tech warfare" and can only fight weak countries that lack real air defense systems.

Zou Zhiqiang also pointed out that although the strategic significance of UAVs continues to rise, there is still a lack of international conclusions on them, because their sensitivity is not so high compared to traditional offensive weapons, and it remains to be seen whether Turkish UAVs can change the strategic pattern of Eastern Wudong.

Delicate balancing: buy Russian weapons, sell Ukrainian drones

On January 6, 2019, on the eve of Orthodox Christmas, the Ecumenical Patriarch of the Orthodox Church in Istanbul (Constantinople) signed the Declaration of Independence of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, thus ending the 333-year history of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church under the jurisdiction of the Russian Orthodox Church. After 333 years, it is not only the congregation that has moved from Moscow to Istanbul — ukraine's strategic partnership with Turkey is also deepening in economic, political, and military terms.

According to a report released on January 13 this year by the Middle East Institute, Turkey is Ukraine's largest foreign investor by 2021, with investments totaling nearly $4.5 billion, more than 700 Turkish companies doing business in Ukraine, and winning a huge market. Turkey's mobile operations giant Turkcell owns Lifecell, Ukraine's third-largest mobile operator, while construction contractor Onur Group has built a new kiev-to-Odessa highway.

The increase in commercial ties between Turkey and Ukraine is also positively correlated with the growth of arms sales. In addition to drones, on December 14, 2020, an agreement was signed between Turkey and Ukraine on the purchase of two Turkish ADA-class frigates, Ukraine's first "direct foreign trade agreement" in the field of defense since the collapse of the Soviet Union. In addition, the cooperation plan between the two sides includes Turkey's participation in the production of aircraft by the Antonov DESIGN Bureau of Ukraine (Antonov ASTC) and participation in the investment of Motor Sich, Ukraine's largest manufacturer of aero-engines.

Turkey's involvement in Ukraine has also touched Russia's "reverse scales." Unlike Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, where Turkish and Russians are divided, Ukraine is seen by Russia as a "strategic backyard." In 2014, the Israeli media exposed that the Israeli government had abandoned the sale of drones to Ukraine for fear of angering Russia, while Turkey dared to challenge Russia.

In May last year, Erdogan promised Ukraine to support Kiev in the event of a build-up of Russian troops on the border and announced the strengthening of defense industry cooperation between Turkey and Ukraine, which was met with stern warnings from Russia despite Erdogan's caution that these actions were "in no way directed against third parties." "We strongly recommend that our Turkish partners carefully analyze the situation and stop fueling militarist sentiment in Kiev." Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said at the time.

After the Ukrainian Defense Ministry released a video of Turkish drone strikes against pro-Russian militias in the Donbass region, the Kremlin once again warned that Turkey's continued arms sales to Ukraine could destabilize the region.

However, despite warnings from Russia, Turkey's relations with Russia have never been greatly affected. The first Russian S-400 air defense systems purchased by Turkey in spite of U.S. sanctions were delivered in 2019, and last year Turkey said it was negotiating a second delivery with Russia. After talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin last September, Erdogan also said Turkey was considering more U.N. defense industry programs with Russia, including the production of warplanes and submarines.

"Although Turkey and Russia have confrontations and games on many peripheral issues, the two sides have strategic needs for each other, pragmatic cooperation has lasted for many years, the two sides have also explored a set of ways to get along, there are contradictions in the fierce game, the cooperation is also maintained, to the maximum extent to take what they need, both grasp the scale of bilateral relations, not completely fall out, and on many issues the two sides can also be traded." Zou Zhiqiang thinks.

However, as tensions between Russia and NATO increase, there is less and less room for Turkey to use "balancing". Turkey reacted strongly to Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, on the one hand, because a large number of Crimean Tatars lived in Turkey, and more importantly, Russia took control of part of the Ukrainian Navy's ships and port infrastructure while occupying Crimea, which greatly changed the balance of power in the Black Sea and upended the Turkish Navy's previous advantages.

"Turkey's political and economic relations with Ukraine have always been relatively close, and it does not recognize Russia's annexation of Crimea, which is also supported by the United States and Europe." Zou Zhiqiang said that Russia in Ukraine is mainly facing the pressure of the United States and Europe, and it chooses to warn and be patient with Turkey's small actions, Turkey is also grasping and paying attention to proportions, and after being warned by Russia, Turkey is also trying to clear up relations and is unwilling to set itself on fire.

Zou Zhiqiang pointed out that on the Ukraine issue, Russia's "red line" against Turkey is not to allow it to directly intervene in front-line military confrontation - to avoid sending large-scale military reinforcements and personnel to directly participate in the war in the past as in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, while Turkey's arms sales such as drones cannot form a cluster effect and strategic threat.

If you want to mediate Russian-Ukrainian relations, you still lack the strength

Standing in the depths of history, Russia and Turkey have been at odds with each other for more than 300 years. In order to compete for the Black Sea region, there were ten Russo-Turkish wars. But in recent years, during the tenure of "strongman" Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin, relying on their "personal friendship", the two countries have maintained a delicate balance of cooperation in competition.

It may be difficult for Western countries to fully understand this unique relationship between Erdogan and Putin. In 2014, turkey criticized Russia for "invading" Crimea, but did not join the US-led sanctions against Russia. In addition to the S-400 project, Russia is also building Turkey's first nuclear reactor. Despite threats of sanctions from the United States, the natural gas pipeline "Turkey Creek" from Russia to Turkey has been completed in 2020. Russia also has a lot of economic influence over Turkey, and Turkey's trade with Russia is almost six times that of Turkey and Ukraine.

It is clear that Turkey gains the most only if ukraine's conflict with Russia is within a certain range of control. Therefore, NATO turkey, which can navigate between the United States and Russia, also hopes to play the role of mediator in the Ukraine crisis.

On January 18, Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Karin said Turkey was ready to play a role in easing tensions between Russia and Ukraine. To that end, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will travel to Kiev in a few weeks to hold talks with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy, while Ankara will also keep in touch with Russia to "avoid any form of military action." ”

"Erdogan has also invited [Putin and Zelenskiy] two people, if they wish, to come to Turkey for talks to resolve their problems." "Turkey is ready to do everything in its power to ease tensions," Kalin said. ”

In the initial response, the Russian presidential press secretary, Eskov, rejected Turkey's proposal, saying, "The truth is that Russia is not a party to the Donbass conflict, and it is impossible to find a solution to a problem at such a summit." But in a subsequent statement, the Kremlin said Russia would welcome it if Turkey and Erdogan could use their influence to encourage Ukraine to implement the 2014 Minsk Protocol.

In fact, last November Erdogan said he was ready to mediate the crisis. Ukraine welcomed this, but Russia's refusal poured cold water on Turkey's "enthusiasm".

"Like other issues around it, Turkey wants to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, mainly for the sake of enhancing its international influence and shaping the status of a great power, striving to sit on an equal footing with the United States, Europe and Russia, waiting for more practical benefits, and also improving its asking price position for other big powers." Zou Zhiqiang said, "Because it is also trying to avoid becoming a direct intervening party, Turkey still lacks the strength to mediate the Ukrainian issue, and Russia does not regard Turkey as a relevant party or negotiating opponent, mainly focusing on the United States and Europe." As a result, Turkey's good offices vision is difficult to achieve and is more wishful thinking. ”

Responsible editor: Hu Zhenqing Photo editor: Shi Jiahui

Proofreader: Luan Meng