As short-term interest rates rise after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's tough FOMC press conference, we said we would keep an eye on the Fed this week

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As short-term interest rates rise after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's tough FOMC press conference, we said we would watch other senior Fed statements this week — to see if they support or withdraw his comments. So far, we've heard three, and they seem to be easing up a bit.

Bostic (Atlanta Fed president) said over the weekend: "Every option for every meeting is on the table... If the data shows that things have progressed to the point where a 50 basis point move is needed or appropriate, then I would lean toward that . . . If it makes sense to move through consecutive meetings, I'll be happy with that. Still, the point is that Bostic also said the most likely scenario is a three-quarters move from March, although high consumer prices may justify a stronger rate hike.

Daly (President of the San Francisco Fed), a pigeon, unsurprisingly said: "We are not behind the curve ... When you're trying to transform an economy from extraordinary support to one that's going to gradually embark on a path of self-sustainment, you have to be data -- dependent -- as we say -- but you also have to be incremental, not disruptive. ”

Este George (Kansas Fed president) isn't as hawkish as one might think. "Taking more aggressive action on the balance sheet could make the path of policy rates shallower, she said... Alternatively, combining a relatively steep path to rate hikes with a relatively modest reduction in balance sheets could flatten the yield curve and distort incentives for private sector intermediaries, especially for community banks, who would otherwise face greater risks of economic and financial vulnerabilities by prompting long-term investors to pursue yield-seeking behavior. I think her comment means the Fed will tighten, but it will also adjust the balance sheet, which could reduce the number of actions needed.

Finally, the dovish non-voter Barkin (president of the Richmond Fed) said: "I hope the Fed will be better positioned ... How fast we go depends on how the economy develops. ”

What this says to me is that the Fed will tighten by 25 basis points instead of 50 basis points in March, and while every meeting is likely to take place, we should now plan four or five moves this year instead of seven. Of course, every senior Fed official says they rely on data, and we don't yet know how inflation and the economy will develop in the coming year.