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Russia and Ukraine are finally going to negotiate?
According to a report just reported by the Russian Satellite Network, the Ukrainian delegation is traveling to go to the Gomel Oblast in Belarus for talks with the Russian delegation that arrived earlier.
However, this information has not yet been confirmed by the Ukrainian side. Earlier, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy had rejected talks in Belarus.
From last night to today, the situation on the Battlefield in Ukraine has evolved rapidly.
The Ukrainian side said Russian troops had invaded Kharkov, the second largest city, and the two sides were engaged in fierce fighting in the city.
Just this afternoon, Zelenskiy announced the formation of a new unit, the International Combat Force for the Defense of the Territory of Ukraine, composed of expatriates who want to participate in the repulsion of Russian forces.
Can the Russian-Ukrainian talks be held smoothly? If the two sides really sit at the negotiating table, can they bring about a relaxation of the situation on the Battlefield in Ukraine? What role will the U.S. and Europe play next?
1
Last night and this morning, fighting around Kiev continued to be intense. A number of media confirmed that after nightfall on the 26th, the Russian armed forces launched a new round of bombing against Kiev.
The wave of attacks is said to have mainly targeted airfields and fuel facilities.
The Associated Press reported that in the early morning of the 27th, near the small town of Vasilki, about 30 kilometers southwest of Kiev, at least two violent explosions occurred. The oil storage facility of a local Ukrainian air base was hit by Russian missiles, and the scene was in flames, "illuminating the sky in southwest Kiev".
In addition to Kiev, Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, was also among the russians' overnight attacks, including a local gas pipeline.
By the 27th, Reuters said that Russian troops had entered Kharkov. A reporter from Spain's Efe news agency quoted the report of ukraine's deputy minister of internal affairs as saying that Russian military vehicles and special forces entered Kharkiv and fought fiercely with local Ukrainian forces.
Conflicts are also underway in the regions of Odessa, Kherson and Zaporizhia.
According to the latest news from the Russian Ministry of Defense on the 27th, the Russian armed forces have blockaded the two cities of Kherson and Berdyansk, and controlled the airports of Gnitszysk and Cherobayevka. The day before, russia had updated its war report, saying it had destroyed 821 targets of Ukraine's military infrastructure.
But the Ukrainian side refused to acknowledge that the Russian military had made significant progress in its operations.
At 6 o'clock in the morning of the 27th, the Ukrainian General Staff issued a statement saying that when the Russian-Ukrainian conflict entered the fourth day, the Ukrainian government still controlled the capital Kiev. On the same day, Ukrainian forces also annihilated a Chechen special forces unit in the Gostomel region near Kiev.
At the same time, Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov also spoke out through social platforms, saying that Ukraine had "smashed" the Russian military plan in the past 72 hours.
Another senior U.S. "aware" official told U.S. media that most of the more than 150,000 Russian troops massed around Ukraine have now entered Ukraine to fight. But the troops were met with "more tenacious than expected" resistance from the Ukrainian army.
In the dispute information from Russia and Ukraine and various media, the possibility of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations can be held has always been a focus outside the battlefield. Even if it was reported that the Ukrainian delegation was on its way to the negotiations, it was not yet known whether the negotiations would proceed smoothly and what the outcome would be.
In the midst of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States and Europe and their partners generally increased sanctions and public opinion offensives against Russia, while providing more assistance to Ukraine.
Germany will supply Ukraine with 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Bayonet missiles. The German Chancellor announced the news of military aid to Ukraine on Twitter on the 27th. Some media outlets said it marked a "change of position" for Germany, which had refused to issue weapons to Ukraine.
France, Lithuania, Australia and Poland also announced on the 27th that they would provide Kiev with various forms of assistance such as fuel, defensive equipment and "lethal weapons". Lithuania's military assistance to Ukraine arrived in Ukraine on the 27th.
2
Russia was kicked out of the International Settlement System (SWIFT) by the United States, the European Union, France, etc. Public opinion generally believes that this joint action is the most severe sanctions taken by Western countries against Russia since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
SWIFT is regarded as the safest, most convenient and most important cross-border payment system in the world, and almost all major financial institutions around the world are members of this system.
Being kicked out of the SWIFT system means that Russian financial institutions will be separated from the international financial system, and domestic funds will not be able to participate in financial financing between domestic and international financial institutions. Therefore, cutting off Russia's connection with the SWIFT system has been regarded by many as a "killer" or even a "nuclear button" for financial sanctions.
It is worth noting that the above-mentioned joint statement does not explicitly mention which Russian banks will be cut off from SWIFT.
Bloomberg said the full list of banks subject to sanctions had not yet been determined. An unnamed U.S. official said the choice would be prudent to maximize its influence on Russia and minimize its impact on EU countries. Reuters quoted an unnamed EU official as saying that the SWIFT ban could affect about 70 percent of Russian banks.
Cui Hongjian, director of the European Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, told The Supplementary Knife that the above-mentioned sanctions have reached the highest level in the US-Eu sanctions plan for Russia, but there is still some room for Russia in the specific details.
Since Russian energy transactions contribute 60% of all exports, in general, the toughest sanctions against Russia are to crack down on its transactions in the energy sectors such as gas and oil, prohibiting it from using the SWIFT system for settlement.
However, the current US-EU sanctions list does not include Gazprom, which is responsible for settlement in the energy sector, which means that the settlement of energy trade between Europe and Russia is not affected for the time being. This is not because Europe and the United States still have good intentions and mercy towards Russia, but mainly because once the SWIFT means are used in energy trade settlements, not only Europe will suffer huge losses, "wounding a thousand enemies and losing eight hundred", but also it is difficult for European-Russian relations to have room for turnaround in the future.
In addition, Cui Hongjian believes that if the sanctions measures are reached to the limit at this moment, if Russia continues to escalate military operations, it will be difficult for the United States and Europe to come up with decent sanctions; second, to completely kick Russia out of SWIFT In addition to the settlement of damage to Europe in the energy field, the United States and Europe have no bottom for its diffusion effect, and need to be tested first. Doing so now is a bit of a stretch of time for countries like the United States and Europe to observe how much of a reaction sanctions will be to the West, as well as how markets react and develop countermeasures to reduce losses.
So, for Russia, how big is the impact of this "most severe sanction"?
Jin Canrong, a professor at the School of International Relations at Chinese University, said in an interview that because this is a "local sanction", not all Russian financial institutions have been kicked out of SWIFT, and the relevant list has not yet been released, it is difficult to assess how much of a blow will be caused to the Russian economy.
As a point of reference, Iran has been excluded from the SWIFT system for sanctions since 2012, resulting in a loss of nearly half of its oil export earnings. This time, the US and European sanctions on Russian financial institutions are still room for compared with the sanctions imposed on Iran in that year. Therefore, even if the blow to the Russian economy will be large, the damage should not be worse than that of Iran.
Jin Canrong believes that in the short term, Russia should be able to survive the severe economic sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe; but in the long run, if the Russian-Ukrainian conflict cannot be resolved or even intensified, the consumption of Western sanctions on the Russian economy will be huge.
3
The crisis in Ukraine is still fermenting, and the safety of Chinese compatriots in Ukraine affects people's hearts.
The latest news obtained by the Global Times reporter from the Chinese Embassy in Ukraine is that "it is difficult to implement the plan for the evacuation of overseas Chinese chartered planes at this stage" and "the embassy is actively considering other evacuation plans, as long as the safety conditions are slightly in place, it will be started immediately."
In recent days, the Chinese Embassy in Ukraine has been issuing real-time security reminders, such as "don't go out during curfew", "don't walk around the street at will", "stay away from the window", "don't turn on the lights", "when you hear the air defense alarm, go to the basement and shelter to evacuate" and so on.
It is not difficult to see that the Embassy is doing its utmost to ensure the safety of Chinese citizens in Ukraine.
The situation ahead is already very critical, and there are artificial rumors on the domestic Internet that "the ambassador has run away."
Late on the night of the 26th local time, Chinese Ambassador to Ukraine Fan Xianrong issued a letter to all Chinese compatriots in Ukraine, responding that "the Chinese ambassador is still in Kiev and is still facing this period of special difficulties with the vast number of compatriots." Fan Xianrong said, "The motherland is behind you, and the embassy is nearby!" This statement is true. ”
There is more than one thing that messes up the rhythm on the Internet.
Some netizens ridiculed "Ukrainian beauties" on the Internet, and some foreign media rendered it as "Chinese netizens reveling in the Ukrainian war". A number of people stranded in Ukraine posted on Weibo, calling for no war jokes.
The Global Times reporter interviewed a student Li who is still in Kiev. He mentioned that some local people in Kiev have reported to Chinese students that many Ukrainian media are spreading false news that "China supports Russia's invasion of Ukraine", and he has also seen many similar reports, and there have been voices and actions of Ukrainian people who are not friendly to the local Chinese.
According to a piece of information provided by Li, students of Kharkiv State University in Ukraine reported that gunmen had opened fire on ordinary students at the university.
To tell the truth, these strange remarks around the situation in Ukraine are not clear whether they were made by ignorant netizens or intentionally by some people with ulterior motives. Some netizens said, "The stinky remarks of 'taking in...' are ammunition that undermines Sino-Ukrainian relations and even China's image." ”
Some people speculate that behind this may be the incitement of Taiwan's "1450 network army".
The DPP authorities have declared that they "empathize with the situation in Ukraine" and have exaggerated that some "foreign forces" want to take advantage of the Ukrainian crisis to "fight against Taiwan in a cognitive manner."
Everyone knows that this is just the old routine of its thieves shouting to catch thieves. While vainly attempting to incite the "anti-China and anti-China" populism on the island, the DPP authorities have never forgotten to stir up muddy waters and bring rhythm to the mainland network.
Of course, such a ulterior motive could not succeed.
Regarding the situation in Ukraine, The State Committee of Wang Yi has long stated China's attitude on many occasions: "China advocates respecting and safeguarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries... This position is consistent and clear, and the same applies on the Issue of Ukraine" "The current situation is something we do not want to see" and "China welcomes The Russians and Ukraine to hold direct dialogue and negotiations as soon as possible."
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