Text / Zimu
Before, there was a passage on the Internet:
If you eat with a middle-aged man these days, just ask him about the Russian-Ukrainian problem, then the rest of the dishes will be yours!
Now, the plot has evolved:
Russian-Ukrainian friction, rising oil prices, falling stocks, resurgence of the epidemic, layoffs in large factories... A group of middle-aged men who don't eat anything can spend the night at the table.
However, in addition to the excitement, it seems that everyone is just "miserable", helplessly sighing, and smothering the wine in the glass.
A friend who runs an advertising company told me that he is not afraid of the closure of old stores, and he is afraid that no one will open new stores.
When the expectation of making money is generally low, people prefer to put money in their pants pockets and eat ashes rather than invest a dime.
In the market, this is called the "disorderly tightening" of capital, and I remember last year I also saw regulators criticize the "disorderly expansion" of capital at the conference.
One year, the vicissitudes of the mulberry field.
Just now, the February credit data also came out, half of the market expectations, especially long-term loans for residents (home loans), which is the first negative growth since 2007.
Although the Spring Festival has an impact on the property market transaction, compared with the record 4 trillion yuan of credit in January, one sky and one underground.
This also gives a reasonable explanation for the loosening of the property market across the country.
In short, the Property Market in March was originally a booming month after the release of water, and now it seems that there are some "soft", but strange things behind the calm are frequent...
1
Crazy mansion
The first is the explosion of the national luxury housing market.
After entering March, Huangpu, Jing'an, Xuhui, Changning and Pudong, which represent the city of Shanghai, these super core areas of more than 20 million mansions, fire cooking oil, a room is difficult to find.
Cuihu Tiandi one listing with a new price of 350,000 / square meter, note, is the highest record in real estate history.
Mansion living room
If you calculate according to the middle-class purchasing power of 350,000 yuan a year, the total price of this suite is 130 million, which takes 377 years, which is really a glance.
No way, someone was born in Rome, someone was born in a cow and horse.
In addition to Shanghai, luxury housing in other first-tier cities and second-tier cities are selling particularly well, and even Shenzhen, which has been frozen for a long time, the luxury housing market is also bucking the trend and the transaction rebounds.
Readers ask, the epidemic economy is under pressure, why do rich people still flock to buy luxury houses?
The answer is simple, "poor resources".
The epidemic has restricted the efficiency of economic operation, in fact, more hit is the middle and bottom just needed income, for the rich, there is a certain impact, but the speed of blood return is also very fast.
Especially after the epidemic, the release of water, round after round, is from the top down, and the rich can leverage greater leverage from the bank to allocate assets.
In the past two years, there are many friends who have bought houses with more than 10 million yuan in full, the reason is very simple, the full amount of re-mortgage, the flow is enough, you can come up with enough low interest money, legal compliance.
And the bottom layer just needs it, can only rely on their own acres and three points of land to cultivate, with hard-earned money to buy a house, the leverage can not move and there is no capital warp.
Therefore, every time the water is released, it will open up the poor and benefit the rich.
Some people ask, the second-hand housing guidance price is so strong, why not hit the 350,000 / square meter of the house? Make it 200,000...
Naïve, no matter how the property market is regulated, in the final analysis, it is still the "supply and demand principle".
Luxury houses in first-tier cities are naturally scarce, and they occupy the core resources of the city, and the rich group is "desensitized" to the price, no matter how to limit the price, there is still a steady stream of rich people snapping up.
The house becomes a private auction, and the highest price wins. Can't sign online? It doesn't matter, they bind famous paintings and sell them.
There is a classic saying in investment science: if you want to make money, don't read books and don't listen to other people's lectures, and see what the rich are doing.
Facts have proved that the best anti-inflation assets in China are still the core properties of first- and second-tier cities, and there is no one.
2
Minimum interest rate
Just now, Henan surprised the 4.7% mortgage interest rate, which should be the lowest interest rate level in the country since 2016, which is incompatible with the local interest rate level of more than 6% last year.
However, it is limited, and it is only for "students who stay in Zheng University" within 5 years of graduation.
Smart people know that Zhengzhou is ostensibly to retain talents, but in fact it is mainly to support the property market, which is to patch the latest stimulus policy.
But the issue to consider is "effect".
According to the average price of 14,000 / square meter in Zhengzhou, a 100 square meter house is 1.4 million, the down payment is 30% 420,000, the loan is about 1 million, and the monthly payment is about 5100.
College students within 5 years of graduating in Zhengzhou, if they do not rely on the help of their families, it is quite difficult to bear such a monthly payment.
Up to now, I can't figure out, the Zhengzhou property market is so miserable, the inventory is so large, why not reduce interest rates for foreign young people, just can support the property market, siphon more population.
The most important thing in a city is people, not houses.
In the past, the robbery war across the country was to cut and search, such as Hohhot, a few years ago to launch a policy, college students to buy a house subsidy of 50,000, this policy is better than not to launch, college students because 50,000 yuan do not buy a house in Hohhot?
What they lack is a down payment of hundreds of thousands, what they lack is a job that can make money...
However, Zhengzhou has made a good start for the whole country by cutting interest rates for college students this time.
A few days ago, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the Chinese Bank of China issued the Notice on Strengthening the Financial Services of New Citizens, which mentioned:
The number of "new citizens" on the mainland is about 300 million, all of which are facing real needs such as living and working in peace and contentment, employment and entrepreneurship, renting and buying a house, children going to school, and providing for the elderly, and cities should implement differentiated housing credit policies and propose to optimize housing financial services to meet the needs of new citizens.
What does it mean, that is, the "new citizens" used to be foreigners, and now they are fragrant and delicious, and they should be treated preferentially, especially at the level of buying a house, and the interest rate should be reduced to give priority to meeting the demand.
Referring to the last round of the property market cycle, second-tier cities will absolutely turn negative into positive within half a year if they are stimulated by this intensity, and the property market will accelerate upwards.
In the third and fourth-tier cities, the property market this year is already very difficult, and the next may be in the name of grabbing talents, the interest rate will be adjusted.
If you are a "new citizen" of a city, you can wait for the wind and wait, before you do not buy on the eve of the good.
3
Refusal to reduce prices
A reader in a small northwestern city told me that after March, house prices rose sharply, and I asked him to go to second-hand stores and sales offices.
The answer is that there are basically no people in second-hand housing stores, most of the sales offices are deserted, and some are hot.
I checked the transaction volume, and then asked acquaintances about the property market, and suddenly understood:
Poor Information.
I've talked about this topic and will repeat it again today.
98% of the cities where "transaction house prices are retrograde" are some small cities, and these places like to "do the game" the most.
The local media will basically be bought by the developer, releasing the fake news that the property market is small and sunny, the house price is rising, the developer takes advantage of the trend to raise the price, and spends money to hire actors to create a hot scene.
As soon as people heard that house prices were going to rise, whether they just needed it or invested, they ran into the sales office to grab the house.
This kind of developer's joint media and intermediaries to harvest buyers' means has been particularly frequent recently, especially in the cold market and the market is in a state of self-help, typically appearing in Henan, Shandong, Inner Mongolia and Northeast China.
At this time, the most important thing is to observe the second-hand housing market, no one buys a house, but the price does not drop, which is the typical "no market", and then there will be owners who can't hold back the choice to reduce prices and sell, and the market enters a long and gloomy market.
In 2022, the vast majority of small cities have excess inventory, and the efforts to relax self-help will be unprecedented, but if there is no promotion of monetization of shed reform, house prices will not have the opportunity to rise.
These cities just need to be slowly picked and slowly selected, do not worry, any singing voice can be automatically blocked.
Only the school district housing or early on the bus, all the city's quality education is scarce, and the nature of the first-line luxury house, it is an independent market, and small cities do not have the power of "educational balance", school district housing preservation resistance to fall and anti-inflation.
In addition, small cities recommend buying second-hand houses instead of new houses, and "priceless" listings on the market abound, and you can definitely find cost-effective ones.
Big cities are seller's markets, and small cities are buyer's markets, which is determined by the supply and demand of resources, and the strange things at hand are well explained.