Ren Zeping: Those who get new energy batteries win the world

The development of new energy vehicles is the only way for the mainland to move from an automobile power to an automobile power. At present, the mainland is already a big country of new energy vehicles, in 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in the mainland will exceed 3.5 million, ranking first in the world for 7 consecutive years, and the development of the new energy automobile industry has entered a new stage of large-scale and rapid development.

Ren Zeping, a well-known economist, and his research team released a report pointing out that in the context of global double carbon, new energy vehicles have entered a stage of explosive growth, and the penetration rate has increased rapidly. As the core component of power, the battery is the "heart" of new energy vehicles, accounting for more than 40% of the total vehicle cost. The development of battery technology and the improvement of performance are the core driving forces that determine the long-term development of new energy vehicles, and those who get new energy batteries win the world.

Well-known economist Ren Zeping. China Fortune Network Li Lin/Photo

According to the report, looking ahead, the industry will present two major characteristics:

First, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles will continue to increase. It is estimated that by 2025, the global sales of new energy vehicles will be about 18 million, and the sales of domestic new energy vehicles may reach 10 million; by 2030, the global sales of electric vehicles will be about 30 million.

Second, the industrialization of fuel cell vehicles is expected to be advanced, from 2030 to 2035, the number of domestic hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will reach about 1 million, and commercial vehicles will achieve hydrogen power transformation. The development of the global new energy application field has entered the fast lane, and the future technological breakthrough will continue to promote the landing of large-scale commercialization, and the industry will show a non-linear explosive development trend.

Batteries have always been the "heart" of new energy vehicles, the current power battery in the new energy passenger vehicle cost accounted for more than 40%, the development of battery technology, performance improvement is the core power to determine the long-term development of new energy vehicles.

Looking forward to the future, Ren Zeping believes that on the one hand, the breakthrough development of fuel cell technology will expand the application space of the commercial field of new energy vehicles, and enrich more application scenarios such as large buses, logistics vehicles, heavy trucks, tractors, and port trailers. On the other hand, with the gradual increase in the market penetration rate of new energy passenger cars, the installed capacity of power batteries has increased significantly, and it will continue to grow explosively in the future.

The "14th Five-Year Plan" period will be an important period for the rapid development of new energy, the large-scale substitution of traditional energy, and the gradual formation of environmental protection and cost advantages. Ren Zeping believes that on the one hand, China will still be the world's largest power battery production base, continue to give full play to the advantages of power battery technology research and development and industrial cluster, and achieve breakthrough growth in power battery installed capacity and leapfrog development of the whole value chain of power batteries. On the other hand, China will achieve industrialization in advance in the fields of hydrogen fuel cells and solid-state batteries, expand the application space and scenarios in the commercial field of new energy vehicles, and continue to break through to form large-scale industries after power batteries.

Ren Zeping said that the new energy battery industry will present the development characteristics of "one pillar, two major application scenarios, and diversified technical routes".

According to Ren Zeping, a pillar refers to the development of power batteries represented by lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium batteries, which will continue to be the first pillar of the new energy battery industry. The two major application scenarios refer to accelerating the implementation of new energy passenger car application scenarios based on the cost advantages of existing power battery technology, and enriching and expanding new energy passenger and new energy commercial application scenarios with fuel cells such as hydrogen fuel as the entry point. Diversified technology development route refers to many emerging battery technologies represented by solid state, sodium ion, high nickel diversification, aluminum air, etc., which will supplement the diversified strategic pattern of enriching the development of the new energy battery market.

Ren Zeping further introduced that the current application of power lithium battery technologies such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium occupies an absolute dominant position in passenger pure electric and hybrid vehicles, and is already in the stage of commercial mass production, which is the first pillar supporting the development of new energy vehicles. Power batteries represented by lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium batteries will continue to be the first pillar of the industry and the "main force" for the development of new energy batteries in the next 5 to 10 years.

Power batteries have begun to accelerate commercial mass production, in 2021 the global power battery cumulative installed capacity of 296.8GWh, year-on-year doubling growth, 2025 installed scale or more than 1000GWh, the future incremental space is significant. The technology and production capacity advantages accumulated by Chinese enterprises over the years are prominent, and the proportion of global share has occupied an absolute advantage. In the future, we will continue to give full play to the advantages of power battery technology research and development, cost optimization, and industrial cluster, improve the coverage of the industry in key materials, manufacturing equipment, system integration and other links, and achieve breakthrough growth in power battery installed capacity and leapfrog development of the whole value chain. And promote the rise of new battery technologies such as solid-state, and develop a "new blue ocean" in market segments such as cascade recycling.

In the two major application scenarios, the new development of battery energy forms will promote the comprehensive expansion of new energy passenger and commercial application scenarios: first, the power battery accelerates the further landing of new energy vehicles in urban, short-distance and other passenger areas, and the second is that hydrogen fuel cells greatly expand the application space of new energy vehicles in long-distance, large-scale and other commercial fields. Hydrogen fuel cells in terms of power density, hydrogen charging efficiency and other aspects of the advantages of improvement, suitable for commercial long-distance scenarios, will help expand the application of new energy in commercial trucks, buses, logistics, forklifts and other fields, to develop hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles as the entry point in the development of new energy commercial vehicles, to solve the commercial vehicle battery mileage and charging time "anxiety", the development of more suitable for commercial vehicles of new energy batteries, to enhance the future penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles is crucial.

It is expected that in the future, hydrogen batteries will accelerate into the commercialization stage under the role of increasing localization rate, large-scale cost reduction, and coordinated development of the hydrogen energy industry chain, and the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is expected to reach about 100,000 by 2025, and the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will reach about 1 million by 2035.

In the diversified technology route, many emerging battery technologies represented by solid state, sodium ion, high nickel diversification, aluminum air, etc., will enrich the diversified strategic pattern of the development of the new energy battery market. The first is to develop new technologies with different characteristics and obvious advantages, extend the energy density and the upper limit of the traffic mileage, improve safety and environmental friendliness, and help the application and expansion of new energy batteries in different applicable scenarios. The second is to develop new technologies such as high nickel and low cobalt, no cobalt, sodium ion, etc., which can reduce dependence on specific upstream resources and reduce the impact of raw materials on battery production costs. In recent years, new batteries such as sodium ions and solid-state batteries have been gradually put into production, and the diversification of battery routes is the development trend of the new energy era.

Ren Zeping pointed out that China's new energy battery industry development strategy is clear - focusing on power batteries and fuel cells, the comprehensive development of other diversified battery technologies; covering the two major fields of passenger and commercial use; and achieving coverage of the whole value chain such as upstream infrastructure and downstream recycling. He suggested that in the future, the level of infrastructure construction such as battery technology research and development capabilities, production capacity supply guarantee capabilities, industrial chain manufacturing comprehensive strength, recycling and green development capabilities, hydrogenation and charging and replacing should be comprehensively improved, which is conducive to further promoting the efficient and healthy development of the new energy battery industry.

Author: Severn

Editor: Xie Yue

Producer: Rainy days

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