Introduction: With Volkswagen, the more the car is sold, the less money is earned, and the current situation of Jianghuai Automobile is embarrassing and helpless.
After hours on March 24, 2022, Jianghuai Automobile announced its 2021 annual results; the next day, the stock closed down 2.09% at 11.26 yuan per share. At the moment when the new forces are hot for cars, this old car company seems to be somewhat lonely, and the analysis and research reports of securities institutions are also few.
As of April 8, Jianghuai Automobile reported a closing price of 9.99 yuan / share, which was "waist cut" compared with the high point of the stock price 4 months ago.
In 2021, Jianghuai Automobile sold 524,200 vehicles and chassis of various types, an increase of 15.63% year-on-year, exceeding 500,000 vehicles for the first time in four years, completing the company's sales target for 2021, which is rare in the automotive industry.
From the perspective of financial performance indicators, Jianghuai Automobile's operating income last year was 40.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.11%; the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 200 million yuan, a substantial increase of 40.24% year-on-year; but the non-net profit was -1.88 billion yuan, and the loss expanded by 9% year-on-year.
Judging from the above key data, the operation of Jianghuai Automobile in 2021 is actually not optimistic: in the case of sales growth, revenue has shrunk; while deducting non-net profit has hit the lowest in nearly 10 years, and the fifth consecutive year of loss.
It is not difficult to understand why Soochow Securities, although optimistic about Jianghuai Automobile's internal research and external cooperation, still lowered its performance forecast from 2022 to 2023.
1) In "internal and external troubles", sales volume runs counter to revenue
From the perspective of the macro environment, in 2021, the automotive industry is generally constrained by the lack of core and less electricity, and the entry and growing of new car-making forces have also caused a lot of impact on the existing automobile market pattern.
Although Jianghuai Automobile will be involved in the research and development of new energy vehicles in 2022, at present, its new energy vehicle sales are not ideal, and jianghuai new energy vehicles have sold about 40,000 new energy vehicles after removing the models that are OEM of Weilai; and the traditional fuel vehicle sector seems to have some problems.
According to the China Automobile Association, in 2021, the sales volume of the domestic commercial vehicle market fell by 6.6% year-on-year, and the passenger car market increased by 6.5% year-on-year.
Focusing on Jianghuai Automobile, its passenger car sales last year were 252,000 units, an increase of 62.3% year-on-year, far higher than the industry growth rate, of which the year-on-year growth rate of SUvs reached 117.5% (of which Weilai models accounted for nearly 50%); while the cumulative sales of commercial vehicles were 271,000 units, down 8.7% year-on-year, outperforming the market.
"Taking advantage of business" has always been the strategic policy of Jianghuai Automobile, and the commercial vehicle sector plays a pivotal role, so the sales volume of the more profitable commercial vehicle sector has declined, which has become one of the factors for the expansion of Jianghuai Automobile's scale but the decrease in revenue.
According to the financial report data, the revenue of Jianghuai Automobile's passenger car segment in 2021 was 8.72 billion yuan, an increase of 19.39% year-on-year, far less than the sales growth rate of the sector. To put it simply, although the passenger car sector of Jianghuai Automobile is very optimistic, it is a pity that the gold content is not high, and the gross profit margin has not yet turned around.
Looking at the commercial vehicle business, the revenue of this segment in 2021 was 23.55 billion yuan, down 12.68% year-on-year, corresponding to the gross profit margin from 10.68% in 2020 to 9.59% in 2021.
In addition, the performance of Jianghuai Automobile's buses last year was very weak, and the cumulative sales of light, medium and large buses fell across the board, of which the sales of large buses fell year-on-year. Bus's revenue in 2021 was 1.6 billion yuan, a sharp decrease of 47.85% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin also fell by 6.25 percentage points to 5.71%.
The chassis business with higher gross profit margin performed the same way, with revenue falling sharply by 67.34%, from $300 million to less than $100 million. But at least it is gratifying that the gross profit margin of passenger cars and chassis has increased.
2) Net profit dilemma
As mentioned above, in 2021, the net profit attributable to Jianghuai Automobile was 200 million yuan, while the non-net profit was a loss of 1.88 billion yuan, and there was a world of difference between the two data.
According to the financial report, the government subsidies included in the profit and loss of the current period in the net profit indicators attributable to the mother amounted to 2 billion yuan, while the disposal of non-current assets benefited 436 million yuan, which were two important reasons affecting the large loss of Jianghuai Automobile's deduction of non-net profit.
Just like when Jianghuai Automobile discusses and analyzes the business situation in the annual report, it puts the "care and guidance from the state" in the first place.
It is true that in 2021, Jianghuai Automobile will disclose the receipt of government subsidies almost every month, sometimes more than once a month, and the subsidy projects are also various, such as research and development subsidies, development and operation awards, triple innovation platforms, and new model awards.
If there is no government subsidy, Jianghuai Automobile may have been "wearing a hat with stars"; the sum of non-net profit deducted for five consecutive years exceeded 6.5 billion yuan, and I am afraid that few companies can hold it; not to mention that compared with the new forces of car manufacturing, traditional car companies lack the skills to tell stories and absorb gold in the capital market.
The author believes that the government's subsidies to enterprises are beyond reproach, and can even help enterprises tide over difficulties and reserve momentum for development, but high-quality development needs to be honed in a down-to-earth manner. The fierce competition and transformation and upgrading of the automobile market will not open up to anyone or slow down.
It is also worth noting that in 2021, the subsidy for new energy vehicles of Jianghuai Automobile is actually less than 300 million yuan. In contrast, the subsidies for new energy vehicles by BYD and Great Wall Motors in the same period reached 5.87 billion yuan and 1.63 billion yuan respectively, which also reflects the development status of new energy vehicles of Jianghuai Automobile from the side.
In 2021, Jachuai Automobile sold 134,000 new energy passenger vehicles, achieving sales revenue of 3.749 billion yuan, less than 10% of the total revenue.
At present, there are still subsidies as the "fig leaf" for the net profit of Jianghuai Automobile, but Jianghuai Automobile really wants to make a living for itself, and its brands such as Sihao, Ruifeng, and JAC must refresh the sense of market existence. Otherwise, no amount of subsidies can break the dilemma of net profit.
However, Jianghuai Automobile is not "selfish", in 2021, it intends to distribute a cash dividend of 0.28 yuan (including tax) to all shareholders for every 10 shares, a total of 61.152 million yuan, accounting for 30.58% of the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company; and in 2020, Jianghuai Automobile also distributed a total of 43.546 million cash dividends under the condition of the company's non-net loss of 1.7 billion, which also reached 30.53% of the net profit attributable to the mother in that year, which can be described as a conscientious enterprise.
3) How much staying power is there for coordinated development?
The industry generally likes to use "left embrace the public, right embrace Weilai" to describe the open cooperation of Jianghuai Automobile, of course, Jianghuai Automobile also has a good partner Cummins cooperation power system, here temporarily focus on the passenger car of Jianghuai Automobile.
Once relying on the advantages of deepening cooperation with Volkswagen, Jianghuai Automobile "skyrocketed" in the stock market, and now Volkswagen's Anhui project is advancing in an orderly manner, the MEB factory has completed the construction of a new body workshop, and the R&D test field of the comprehensive experimental center has officially started in March. Moreover, in 2021, Jianghuai Automobile also successfully raised 2 billion yuan from the controlling shareholder, and the monetary funds were sufficient. However, as we all know, in this joint venture company, Jianghuai Automobile does not have much say, and it is more about making wedding dresses for others.
For Weilai, Jianghuai Automobile did not stop at OEM, and in March last year, it established Jianglai Company with Weilai and held 51% of the shares to grasp the initiative. As a representative of the new car-making forces, the deepening of the cooperation model between WEILAI and JAC will form a feedback on the products, services and marketing of JAC Motors.
However, the cooperation of this party is not a peace of mind. Since July last year, Weilai Automobile's monthly delivery volume has been surpassed by Ideal, Xiaopeng and Nezha, and the data has not been overturned as of March. This is somewhat passive for Jianghuai Automobile, which may directly affect the production and sales performance of Jianghuai Automobile, and even the operating performance, and the performance of the cooperative brand between GAC and Weilai is not satisfactory.
It is worth noting that in 2021, Jianghuai Automobile's expensed R&D investment was 1.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18%; capitalized R&D investment was 420 million yuan, with a total R&D investment of 1.79 billion yuan, accounting for 4.46% of revenue, which is at the upper middle level in the traditional automotive industry.
For example, among the listed companies that have announced their 2021 results, BYD's R&D investment ratio is 3.7%, Great Wall Motor's is 3.29%, Beiqi Blue Valley is 3.07%, while BAIC Motor's is only 1.51%, and GAC Group's R&D investment ratio is only 0.19%.
Of course, compared with the new car-making forces often exceed 10%, or even close to 20% of the R & D investment, the investment of traditional car companies in research and development is still very thin.
To some extent, whether a car company has R& D capabilities and the amount of R & D investment is the hard foundation for the development of stamina.
Views of Autoskline：
In the 2020 financial report, Jianghuai Automobile plans to have a total revenue of 50.8 billion yuan in 2021, while the actual situation is only 40.2 billion yuan, leaving a gap of 10 billion yuan; for 2022, Jianghuai Automobile will reduce the total revenue expectation to 45 billion yuan, while the production and sales of various vehicles and chassis will increase to 568,000 units.
Is the expected increase in sales but the contraction of revenue, does this imply that Jianghuai Automobile is not "too good" in 2022? It is true that due to the continuous rise in international crude oil prices, the "blue brand light truck" industry policy, and the slowdown in infrastructure construction and other macro factors, the commercial vehicle market dividend has gradually weakened, and the downward pressure is greater.
At the same time, in the field of passenger cars, the performance of jacques, Sihao, and Ruifeng brands is mediocre; waiting for Volkswagen Anhui to exert force still needs time; and cooperation with Weilai should also wait and see the trend of Weilai. For Jianghuai Automobile, which is riding both business and business, the situation is indeed not very friendly at present.
Fortunately, Jianghuai Automobile still has good capital reserves, and the shareholder background is not general, hoping that it can survive the difficult transformation, turn the crisis as an opportunity, and continue to move forward.
After hours on April 8, Jianghuai Automobile disclosed the production and sales data for March. In March, JAC Motor sold 42,700 units, down 21.64% year-on-year, and cumulative sales in the first quarter were 129,400 units, down 11.67% year-on-year.